Peloni: This self imposed tragedy was the greatest Ukrainian defeat in the long list of defeats which Ukraine secured over the past more than a decade. In fact, this catastrophic misstep by Zelensky is potentially if not likely regime changing in its nature. The Ukrainian Ambassador facepalmed gesticulation during the event really captures the reality which Ukraine faces at this juncture. As has been explained by Bryen, below and more extensively in his previous essays, Zelensky can not be seen to negotiate with Putin which likely played no small role in this diplomatic implosioin. Quite a terrible moment for the Ukrainian rank and file whose morale was already at a significant deficit.
and some guesses about what happens next
Stephen Bryen | Weapons & Strategy | Feb 28, 2025
Click on Photo for pivotal exchange between Trump and Zelensky (Full press conference at bottom of article)
Because events at the White House with President Trump and Ukrainian President Zelensky were so dramatic, I thought it would, perhaps, be useful to take a moment to discuss the big events of today at the White House where Zelensky met Trump. It is unprecedented that a visiting dignitary would behave the way Zelensky did, or for that matter show up in a tight fitting sweatshirt and slacks, something Mr. Trump disliked.
To begin with, there was no private meeting with Trump and Zelensky.
Here is some context:
1. Trump and Putin are very close to a deal on Ukraine. I released an article on that earlier today on Substack.
2. Trump invited Macron and Starmer to Washington to brief them, which he apparently did. The French went away fairly unhappy, but Starmer seemed to be in general agreement. Starmer made a pitch to include Article 5 and NATO in any deal; Trump rejected that appeal. Putin, meanwhile, talked to Xi by telephone and sent Sergei Shoigu (who heads Russia’s Security Council, something like the NSC) to Beijing to meet with Xi.
3. Trump invited Zelensky. The cover for Zelensky’s appearance in Washington was the “Minerals Deal” which the two leaders were supposed to sign.
4. The Minerals Deal was actually a sort of security guarantee for Ukraine, as Ukraine and the US would become “partners.” While Trump is unwilling to send US troops to Ukraine, he saw the Minerals Deal as a security substitute.
5. The Minerals Deal was not signed.
6. The real reason for the Zelensky visit was to brief him on the Putin negotiations and to gain his support.
7. Zelensky was not briefed because he vociferously and harshly objected to any negotiations with Putin. He did this in public, to Trump’s face, and in front of the press. As I have said many times before, Zelensky cannot negotiate with Russia.
8. Trump told Zelensky he was gambling with World War 3 and that he was in a poor position. Zelensky tried to answer back, but each time was rebuffed both by Trump and Vice President J.D. Vance.
9. The result is there was no private meeting and Trump told Zelensky he would be welcomed back only when he was ready for peace.
10. Usually there is a press conference at the end of a visit to the White House. That was cancelled and, in essence, Zelensky was dismissed.
11. The next steps are unclear, as Trump’s attempt to cut a deal with Russia is now blocked by Zelensky’s refusal to cooperate.
Some guesses:
Guess 1. Trump will retaliate by cutting off arms deliveries to Ukraine and cutting off any US money to the Ukrainian government. If that happens, Ukraine’s army will disintegrate in the next couple of months, or sooner.
Guess 2. Trump will put together some kind of deal with Russia not including Ukraine. This could be an economic deal, or it could be a deal that lifts sanctions on Russia.
Guess 3. It is unlikely Trump will change course on Russia and Ukraine, unless Zelensky changes his position or is replaced in some way.
Guess 4. Trump may ask the Europeans to stop backing Ukraine under current circumstances. It seems the British may cooperate, but not the French. The Germans right now don’t have a government, so they are unpredictable. Trump will talk to the Germans about helping them improve their economy in exchange for geopolitical cooperation. We will see.
Guess 5. Trump will let Ukraine collapse but may seek a deal with Putin on Ukraine once Zelensky is gone.
@Reader
Oh, get over yourself. Everybody’s stuff disappears randomly and nobody knows why. Just AI going berserk, as usual.
@Reader No you did. I said all you have to do is add in Islam, and there’s nobody on the other side, sarcastically.
@Sebastien Zorn
I actually specifically excluded Islam from the deeds of Western civilization in my comment, except for the fact that the Western civilization is supporting Islam against the Jews and Israel.
It seems that you didn’t read it or skipped a lot words there.
Why is everyone messing with me? I feel so unsafe.
@Reader Now, all you have to do is assert that Islam and all the other toxic third-world totalitarian ideologues that have crawled out from under the rocks onto the world stage, seeking world conquest, since de-colonization are also the product of Western Civilization and voila! Everything is up and there is nothing on the other side.
NIce Job. Help yourself to some wine and hors d’oevres, professor. You’ve earned it.
A parody of a more relevant example of that kind of circular reasoning from Israeli comedy troupe, Eretz Nehederet: “The Gospel According to Berkeley”
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xcLCe5iBvVc
@ Sebastien Zorn
Tried replying to you in full twice – both times my replies were disappeared thanks to the liberating force.
Enjoy your unfair win!
@Sebastien Zorn
Another example of the non-censorship here – my reply to you has disappeared because, I am positive, of its unacceptable ideological expressions.
One hell of a liberating force!
Trying again…
@Sebastien Zorn
Quite possibly. Take just the last 2 world wars. BTW, both socialism and communism were Western ideas (from France, and Germany) which were used by very backward countries to speed up their development and usually abandoned later.
Sure. Stick a label on someone and you will know EVERYTHING they think or do.
Sort of like liberating the rest of the world of its resources in exchange of generously implanting everywhere its civilization starting with the Ancient Rome?
I hope you don’t include here the virtuous Germany attempting to liberate the continent from “Judeo-Bolshevism” and then sacrificing their precious Arian lives to prevent the barbaric Eastern hordes from taking over Europe?
@Sebastien Zorn
Quite possibly. Take just the last 2 world wars. BTW, both socialism and communism were Western ideas (from France, and Germany) which were used by very backward countries to speed up their development and usually abandoned later.
Sure. Stick a label on someone and you will know EVERYTHING they think or do.
Sort of like liberating the rest of the world of its resources in exchange of generously implanting everywhere its civilization starting with the Ancient Rome?
I hope you don’t include here the virtuous Germany attempting to liberate the continent from “Judeo-Bolshevism” and then sacrificing their precious Arian lives to prevent the barbaric Eastern hordes from taking over Europe?
@Reader Compared to Islam or Communism? Leftist nonsense. Western Civilization has been a liberating force.
@Sebastien Zorn
No, I didn’t contradict myself.
You simply don’t understand what I am saying, and you use the terminology that is familiar and understandable to you to put words in my mouth and then argue against them as though I said them when I did nothing of the sort, i.e., you keep creating a straw man to argue against.
The Jewish people originated in the ME and Jewish civilization is EASTERN and unique, and the Western so-called civilization has been the greatest enemy of the Jews for the last 1,800 years.
The Western civilization is also the most murderous – check its history and add up how many people it has slaughtered – Jews and non-Jews.
Unfortunately, it will take many years before Jews fully resurrect their own unique civilization.
I think every country has the right to exist and have its own culture, and no country has the right to do whatever the hell it wants at the expense of others, and to dictate to the whole world what to do, to feel, and to think, no country has the right to start or encourage genocidal wars, and to compete with others the way the early Rockefellers did (by sending their people to burn their competitors gas stations).
The world is a far too dangerous place now for people to keep creating non-existing adversaries, to pretend that these fantasy adversaries want our demise (aside from a few radical Muslims or radical Muslim countries who are supported by the same Western civilization against Israel), and to act as though everything is a zero sum game.
@Reader You just contradicted yourself. I support the U.S. and the West of which Israel and the Jewish people are an indissoluable part, against the forces of barbarism that seek world conquest and our demise. “Anti-imperialism/anti-colonialism” is a hoax, playing with words. No such animal.
@Sebastien Zorn
This has nothing to do with either good or bad.
The US and its helpers are merely working on an intermediate goal (divide-and-conquer) on the way to their final goal (conquer all and take everything – as a winner always does).
@Reader I categorically reject knee-jerk third-worldism. Do you think China is the good guy, here?
@Sebastien Zorn
I watched this briefing in the morning.
It is a good explanation but I think that the real goal is permanently conquering Eurasia, so right now it is the good cop (the US)/bad cop (the UK and Europe) thing as a temporary distraction (but the temporary goal to break up the Russia/China/Iran coalition may be correct).
@Reader Good analysis of what Trump understands the U.S. and Israel need from Russia.
https://youtu.be/TapmvqdD8c4?si=zYC0e09NLHJfHsKl
MICHAEL-
No I didn’t. You must have felt a deep attachment to get that far,
I presume Conservative. You should have stuck with it…We’d have been glad to have you…
Yes it would be very difficult for a beginner learner to read it, but in fact continued practice causes word recognition for quite fast reading.
My OWN opinion of the casual way prayers like the Amida are said negates real feeling of those who pray speedily.
Nearly all the original Jews from the shtetls could reel off any amount of prayers, Yiddish being their “native language”… but few, if any understood the Hebrew meanings. ….
Prayer is supposed to express REAL feeling, and competition as to who finishes first, negates that.
Just my opinion; always felt that way.