What might be in store for the Gaza Strip?
BY CHARLES BYBELEZER/THE MEDIA LINE
When Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu last week announced the cancellation of his trip to Colombia, citing the “situation in the south,” the move was widely construed as a prelude to a possible breakthrough in negotiations to forge a long-term ceasefire agreement with Hamas. And, indeed, the Israeli cabinet was slated on Sunday to discuss an emerging multi-phased proposal.
The first stage reportedly calls for the immediate end to all hostilities and the permanent re-opening of the Rafah border crossing with Egypt and the Kerem Shalom passage, through which Israel transfers goods and humanitarian aid to Gaza. Thereafter, if the truce holds, the living conditions of Gazans are to be improved through the lifting of the joint Israeli-Egyptian blockade, whereas the rift between Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas’ ruling Fatah faction and Hamas is meant to be healed. Finally, the international community will invest heavily in Gaza-based infrastructure projects, including the possible construction of air and sea ports.
At some point, Hamas would return to Israel two civilian captives and the remains of two soldiers killed in Gaza during the 2014 war, likely in exchange for the freeing of Palestinians re-incarcerated following their release in the 2011 Gilad Shalit prisoner-swap deal.
Despite apparent progress in the talks, violent clashes again broke out over the weekend in the latest installment of the Hamas-initiated “March of Return” protests. Chaos erupted along the border when an estimated 8,000 Palestinians began burning tires and hurling rocks and explosives at Israel Defense Forces troops, leading to the killing by live-fire of two Gazans and injuries to over 200 others. Dozens of incendiary objects continued to be launched into southern Israel, causing further damage to an already ravaged ecosystem.
Notably, senior Hamas figures participated in the demonstrations, including Gaza leader Yahya Sinwar and the terror group’s deputy chief Saleh al-Arouri, who lives in exile but was granted special permission by Israel to enter the enclave in order to discuss with officials details of the prospective five-year ceasefire. That al-Arouri was allowed into Gaza despite being accused of directing attacks against Israel from Turkey is additional evidence that the diplomatic process has reached a critical juncture. Likewise, Sinwar’s appearance Friday might be viewed as a final show of “resistance” ahead of a potential agreement.
According to Brig. Gen. (res.) Nitzan Nuriel, former director of the Counter-Terrorism Bureau at the Israeli Prime Minister’s Office and prior to that deputy commander of the IDF’s Gaza Division, the present initiative may, after numerous previous failed attempts, bear fruit.
“Before determining if such will be the case, we need to understand the background on the Palestinian side,” he explained to The Media Line. “Sinwar sat in an Israeli prison for 22 years and his generation knows very well that Hamas cannot defeat Israel. So they are more willing to compromise. But before this can happen Hamas needed to put up a fight and this is what has been happening for the past four months.
“The message to the people of Gaza,” Nuriel elaborated, “is that Hamas won by setting fire to Israeli communities and killing an Israeli soldier. Now, they can consider a truce. This does not mean that Hamas will like or accept Israel, only that an accord is possible.”
Nevertheless, there are already signs that integral parts of the proposal may be bound to fail. For example, Abbas’ Fatah faction this weekend called on Hamas to reject any long-term pact, which was described as a “free gift to Israel and another coup against the Palestinian people and their homeland.” Nor does it appear that Israel will agree to fully open up Gaza to the world—which is tantamount to throwing Hamas a lifeline—without any guarantees for when the deal expires.
“Any arrangement involves two basic components,” Brig. Gen. (res.) Michael Herzog, former head of the IDF’s Strategic Planning Division and a participant in most of Israel’s peace negotiations with the Palestinians, contended to The Media Line. “As regards the first, Hamas must stop sending rockets and incendiary objects into Israel as well as building [cross-border] tunnels. Hamas ties this to the second element,” he expounded, “which is economic recovery for Gaza. In this respect, there may be a problem due to countries’ hesitance to throw good money after a bad cause. To date, many have been reluctant to do so for reasons ranging from not wanting to deepen the Palestinian divide or be seen as empowering Hamas.
Equally crucial, according to Herzog, is the PA’s reluctance to assume responsibility for Gaza’s rehabilitation, especially while Hamas is still refusing to disarm. “More than that, the PA has imposed sanctions on Hamas. Both sides have their own conditions for reconciliation and have been unable to [bridge their differences] many times before. Overall, based on my knowledge, I’m not sure that this attempt is more likely to work than previous ones.”
The major unknown remains the Trump administration’s much-anticipated peace plan, which reportedly is being prepared for roll-out and may contain components that fundamentally upend the status quo.
What is definitive is that the prevailing situation is complex, and unless all of the pieces of the puzzle come together—which has not happened in the past—the ceasefire proposal may amount to nothing more than a period of relative quiet for Israel and a temporary reprieve for Hamas.
This all-too-familiar dynamic has defined the past decade, resulting neither in long-term peace or an improvement in the humanitarian conditions in Gaza.
@ Edgar G.:
Bad.
@ Sebastien Zorn:
Stop soothing the “little boy” part of me that unfortunately I still have. I’m a tyro compared to real bibliophiles
@ Edgar G.:Bravo.
@ Ted Belman:
I think you’re flattering me a bit. My nose had never been out of a book for the past at least 60 years, say 12-14 hours a day, even whilst walking, eating, etc. I am an addict. since my very first book. (I’m just saying 60 years as a throw-out figure) Much of what I mention I actually have either experienced or have lived during that time.
I’ve only detailed a bare sketch of a single portion of one of my many differing interests, on all of which I have copious literature…..originally about 10,000 culled to 7,000.. And I stopped buying when I discovered the free internet libraries. Many of my books are actually in the Gutenberg Collection. I haven’t even mentioned my complete Edgar Rice Burroughs collection, or my Edgar Wallace series, or John Creasy, Dennis Wheatley, Wodehouse(grew out of him) Oliver Strange, R.B. Saxe, Sabatini Orczy, Asimov collection, Richard Thornycroft, Blackmore, Crofts,Russell Thorndyke, Harrison AInsworth, Maria Edgeworth, Richard Lovell Edgeworth, George Du Maurier, Alexander Woolcott , several of Bonaparte;s biographers, a fairly complete group of Judaica, Graetz, Zeitlin, numerous Dead Sea Scrolls authors, from Dupont-Sommer on much on Christianity.(always good to know where the enemy is coming from) ..and…and…and… I used to read every one of the adverts in the backs of the Pulp Magazines I used to buy,and read them again the bext month and there on in. as well as everything stuck on the walls of railway stations. Just can never resist… Omniverous in that respect. I think it’s some sort of sickness.
I must apologise ..I let my enthusiasm run away with me. Anything to do with old-ish books grabs my attention. I hate to erase now, as I get pleasure from just reading what I’ve written down for the first time. I really like it.
@ Edgar G.:
I marvel at how extensive your readings are.
I don’t know. I think that at this juncture, the most important thing is not to let anything distract from the Trump-led process of isolating and financially destroying Iran. All the funding is coming from Iran. If and when Iran has a revolution and that funding dries up, then the game changes, dramatically. Plus, the U.S. is gradually cutting off funding to UNRWA and the PA and getting the international community to start doing so, as well in small ways at first. The whole tenor is changing and if Hamas and Abbas — who is urging Hamas to fight — can’t change the conversation by pointing to alleged Israeli war crimes, this will be better for Israel and that process. Plus, Israel needs to have all resources ready to drive Iran and its proxies out of Syria. It’s all a matter of timing. In the long-run, “they must go.”
@ LtCol Howard:
I;m highly gratified to hear your agreement, because it’s rare to see any comment at all. I’m a logical thinker with a mind sharpened a bit by a large collection of Napoleonic literature, and Civil War battle accounts, as well as several books on Hannibal and his battles, tactics and strategies. I have courses that are still taught at Sandhurst, in particular the 3 volume account by Maj. Gen. C.W. Robinson on “Wellington in the Peninsula” as well as “Moore’s retreat on Corunna” and the subsequent battle and taking off of troops.. I have a complete account of the Torres Vedras campaign, where Massena roved around the outside for 6 weeks until every blade of grass and everything edible had been eaten, even some leather harness. . I have books on Seleucus and Chandragupta Maurya, and much much more.
Included in Robinson’s volumes are oodles of battle plans, and at least a dozen large scale maps that have to be folded small to get into the books. I have Waterloo in any taste, colour or style you want, along with Ligny, Quatre-Bras, and more, not forgetting good old Grouchy who, following Blucher, refused to “march to the sound of the guns”:. and also D’Erlon’s 20,000 men who marched fruitlessly from Napoleon , then countermanded by the desperate order of Ney, and back to Nap agai….., who never fired a shot all day…. Just marched.to and fro several times, always countermanded at the last minute.
At the end of all this I STILL say that the two best descriptions of Waterloo are both from non soldiers, and who were never there, Thackeray in “Vanity Fair” (1848), and Charles Lever in “Charles O’Malley The Irish Dragoon”. (1841) However, before Vanity Fair was written, Thackeray went over to travel all around Ireland, and produced his 1842 “Irish Sketch Book”,….but it was no accident that he stayed at Lever’s house in Templeogue for 10 days or two weeks ( my late brother’s house was almost next door to where Lever’s was).
So it’s comparatively easy to follow proposed acts or actions to their natural and -to me- almost certain conclusion.
@ greenrobot:
Gaza if it was a golf course would be one big sand trap.
@ Edgar G.:I agree with everything you said. The truce advocates in the IDF upper command are delusional. For many years I have heard from the IDF brass that the Palestinians need to claim a victory in order to negotiate peace. In fact, they have to be ground down in defeat in order to be willing to negotiate. I suggest that every combat patrol on the southern border be led the field by an active duty IDF general and that these individuals be the first to pay the price that they demand of their troops
No agreement at all is preferable to this bend over by Israel.
How many times can they not learn from prior experience. Pay the residents of Gaza to go to Turkey and start a new life there. Make the Gaza Strip a distant memory and re purpose it as a golf resort that people live in.
Any agreement that comes out of the present discussions, are a distinct victory for Hamas. They can say that the fire balloons finally brought about Israel’s surrender, and would be at least partly correct. It will boost the image of Hamas amongst the whole Arab nation, and diminish Israel in the same manner.
The oft touted belief that this and that will ameliorate the conditions of the Gaza people, MUST be being said with “tongue in cheek” BECAUSE, it is well known that despite the multi billions poured into Gaza in recent years both in money and material goods, their conditions have no improved.
This is because all the goods entering into Gaza are immediately seized by Hamas, and those not confiscated for their “war effort” are resold to the population at highly inflated prices, double and treble their real prices, items that they are supposed to receive free of charge. We, and the contributors know all this but they don’t change their direction one whit. The end recipient is a bank in Switzerland..
So where does all this leave us….NOWHERE… I KNOW that the Israeli High command avidly listens to, and reads all my opinions and pronouncements, so that they can immediately do the opposite, and know they are are taking the correct steps. It never fails. I pour out wisdom for free, and they get highly paid so they have to get it RIGHT…..