By David P. Goldman, PJ MEDIA (Spengler)
The world now anticipates that the US will reach a strategic agreement with Iran. Russia and China are responding by offering their own deals to Tehran. A possible game-changer is Russia’s offer of the Antey-2500 air defense system to Iran. After canceling the planned delivery of the older, shorter-range S-300 system in 2010, Russia has now escalated drastically by proposing to sell Iran a much more effective system. Western air forces have never engaged the Russian system, so we don’t know how exactly good it is. No-one I know in the military wants to find out; by Western estimates, the Russian systems are extremely good. It is possible that Russia’s unwelcome intervention might make Iran effectively impregnable from attack by Israel. The Antey-2500 can take down missiles as well as airplanes.
In addition, Russia is retaliating against the West’s stance on Ukraine. Russia has made it clear all along that it would respond to Western efforts to remove Crimea from Russia by making trouble in Iran, as Russia’s deputy foreign minister warned last March. Russia, unlike the US, views the world as a single chessboard: attack my position here, and I will hurt you somewhere else where you are not prepared. Putin isn’t crazy; he’s a Russian commander in the classic mold, forcing the burden of uncertainty onto his adversary, muddying the waters and leaving his opponent guessing. His countermoves on the global chessboard include a prospective alliance with China as well as mischief in the Persian Gulf. My conservative friends who urge us to “stand up to Putin” should take a cold, dispassionate look at the whole of the chessboard and anticipate moves of this sort; otherwise, the whole thing is a lot of beery blather. As I wrote recently, Israel takes the brunt of American policy blunders. What happens if Putin gives Iran the means to shoot down anything Israel (and a good deal of what the US) might throw at it? No-one in Washington seems to ask such questions. I’ve been warning about such a development for the past five years (see When the Cat’s Away, the Mice Kill Each Other, Oct. 20, 2009).
China, which depends on Persian Gulf oil more than any other major economy, is watching these developments with alarm, as a Feb. 22 Xinhua commentary makes clear (hat tip: M.K. Bhadrakumar):
U.S. President Barack Obama, who admitted that Washington “brokered a deal to transition power in Ukraine” a year ago, has warned that a collapse in the peace process could push his country into approving deliveries of weapons to the East European country. Such a proposal is not only counterproductive, but also dangerous. Indeed, the Americans might be the only one poised to gain from the Ukraine crisis with both Europe and Russia being weakened, but they should be mindful that one who sees the crisis as a power game would only drag itself into the quagmire. By antagonizing Russia, for instance, Uncle Sam might lose a possible – and powerful – partner in its ongoing anti-terrorism drive in the Middle East.
That hardly needs translation: Beijing is worried about instability in the Persian Gulf, whose oil China needs more than any other major economy, and observes that Russia is in position to stir up instability in retaliation for Western intervention in Ukraine. Russia may be a second-rate power, but it still is a power in the Middle East, as well as the purveyor of game-changing military technologies.
China, meanwhile, is courting Iran. Visiting Tehran Feb. 15, China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi “said that increasing relations with Iran is one of his country’s foreign policy priorities…Cooperation between Beijing and Tehran is of strategic importance and beyond bilateral relationship, Wang added. The Chinese foreign minister also said that the nuclear talks between Iran and the 5+1 group (the U.S., Russia, China, Britain, France, and Germany) have entered final phases and nothing should be done to prevent the talks to yield a result…Wang also expressed his country’s opposition to Western-led sanctions against Iran for its nuclear program.” China operates on the principal that one should keep one’s friends close and one’s enemies closer. It has sold a great deal of weapons to Iran, but sold much better weapons to Saudi Arabia, including top-of-the-line intermediate range missiles that give KSA “a formidable deterrence capability” against Iran, in the words of one Chinese analyst.
Now Beijing faces the prospect that Iran will become the dominant regional player with de facto from the United States, and is trying to reposition itself as an Iranian ally–while Russia does the same thing. It’s a bidding war for the good graces of the craziest regime on earth.
@ dove:
This is the way they build for the future.
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/isis-destroys-second-largest-museum-200100470.
html
It is appalling to see the destruction of mankind’s heritage.
Where and when does it stops?
According to an Iranian commander, “The Americans, and the entire world, know that the American navy is one of our targets, and it will take us 50 seconds to destroy every US warship.”
Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) launched on Wednesday massive war games, code-named the Great Prophet 9, in the Strait of Hormuz in the Persian Gulf, according to reports from Iran’s Press TV and AP.
The drills, which reportedly focused on a possible face-off with US forces, started with maritime mine operations by speedboats as well as the firing of four coast-to-sea missiles in the strategic Persian Gulf region and the Strait of Hormuz.
Rear Admiral Ali Fadavi, RGC’s navy commander, said that 20 new missiles would be tested during the military exercises. Senior Iranian officials attended the drill, including Parliament Speaker Ali Larijani and Revolutionary Guards commander Gen. Ali Jafari.
The drills featured the firing and testing of a wide array of military and naval equipment and missiles. At one stage, two ballistic missiles, which blew up an Iranian-built, life-size replica of a US aircraft carrier, were fired, according to Arab media. The target was reportedly completely destroyed by the missiles.
Show of Force
Fadavi said last April that “the Americans, and the entire world, know that the American navy is one of our targets, and it will take us 50 seconds to destroy every US warship.”
Iran also fired coast-to-sea and ground-to-ground ballistic missiles during the drill.
US ship
The US ship before its explosion. (Photo: PressTV)
The maneuvers, which involve “state-of-the-art military equipment,” are aimed at demonstrating IRGC’s prowess in defending the country’s interests in the Persian Gulf and Strait of Hormuz, Press TV reports.
Iran has conducted several war games in the past months, ostensibly to enhance the defense capabilities of its armed forces.
During negotiations with the P5+1, however, the Islamic Republic has repeatedly claimed that its military might poses no threat to other countries, reiterating that its defense doctrine is based on deterrence.
General Ahmad Reza Pourdastan, chief of the Iranian army’s ground forces, stated during a massive military maneuver in December that “the country’s army wants to convey a message of peace and friendship to neighboring states through this military drill.”
Cmdr. Kevin Stephens, spokesman for the U.S. Navy’s 5th Fleet in Bahrain, said the Americans were were monitoring the drills and were “not concerned” about this development, AP reports.
In the meantime, new details have emerged about Iranian efforts to destabilize the Middle East. According to information given by Western intelligence officials to Fox News, Unit 190 of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard’s Quds Force is in charge of smuggling weapons to terrorist groups throughout the region, including Hezbollah, Hamas, and the Houthi rebels in Yemen.
Iran, which supports the Assad regime in Syria, as well as Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Houthi rebels in Yemen, is the primary backer of militant Shi’ism in the Middle East. Iran recently resumed its funding of Hamas terrorism against Israel.
By: United with Israel Staff
With files from Associated Press
@ Laura:
I have never trusted the Russians or the Chinese. Even when they tried to clean their act it is only for public consumption to get favorable dealings from the West. It is all appearances. After they get what they want, they go to the their same traitorous self. Never trust a Russian or a Chinese. The muslims are the worse anybody could have imagine.
Their evil is in a class by itself. Criminality never before witnessed in the history of mankind. Savagery and evil.
This tells me that perhaps the human race doesn’t deserve to survive.
Are commentors here still going to praise the Russians? Clearly Russians are and always have been evil. Only Muslims are more evil.
This should be seen as Russia forcing Israel’s hand to attack Iran before the Antey-2500 air defense system is delivered and operational. Thank you Russia!