DEBKAfile Exclusive Report May 16, 2013,
Russian President Vladimir Putin and Prime Minister Netanyahu ended their three-hour meeting in Sochi Tuesday, May 14, at loggerheads on Syria. In fact, Putin warned his guest that Israel and its army, the IDF, were heading for war with Syria in which Russia might well be involved – and not just through the advanced S-300 anti-air missiles supplied to the Assad government. The case Netanyahu and Military Intelligence chief Maj. Gen. Aviv Kochavi put before Putin and Russian foreign intelligence chief, SVR Director Mikhail Fradkov, fell on deaf ears.
They found the Russian leader further infuriated by the docking that day at Israel’s Red Sea port of Eilat of the USS Kearsarge, carrying 1,800 marines and a consignment of 20 V-22 Osprey helicopters which US Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel had promised to supply to Israel during his April visit.
Putin viewed the stationing of US forces in the Gulf of Aqaba just two hours away the Israeli-Syrian border for repelling Syrian-Iranian-Hizballah aggression against Israel or Jordan – signaled by the Kearsage’s arrival – as an act of bad faith by Washington. On the one hand, they want us to cooperate for an international conference to end the bloodshed in Syria, while on the other, they deploy military forces, he complained to Netanyahu.
The Israeli prime minister countered with a warning that Israel would continue to strike advanced weapons in Syria that were destined for Hizballah. And if President Bashar Assad hit back for Israel’s May 5 bombardment of weapons stores on Mount Qassioun near Damascus, Israel would intensify its bombardments of Syrian military targets and weapons until Assad was left to fight off rebel assaults empty-handed.
Putin rejected this threat as implausible.
Neither Putin nor Netanyahu put all their cards on the table, but the conversation ended with the Russian leader fully confident that his capabilities for safeguarding Assad were greater than Israel’s ability to destroy him.
In the end, Netanyahu and his party arrived home Tuesday evening with a bad feeling. They were certain that Moscow had given Assad the green light to go through with his threat to make the Syrian Golan and the Horan of southern Syria “a front for resistance” – i.e. the platforms for embarking on a war of attrition against northern Israel with the help of a flow of advanced weapons to Hizballah.
The Syrian ruler is strongly encouraged to adopt this path by Tehran. Hizballah’s leader Hassan Nasrallah has embraced it. And the radical Palestinian leader, Ahmed Jibril, head of the Assad-satellite Popular Front-General Command, has eagerly offered his services.
And indeed, Wednesday, the day after Netanyahu’s trip to Sochi, Jibril’s group let loose with mortar fire on the Israeli Mt. Hermon ski site, firing from a Syrian army position.
Israeli military sources confirmed later that these were no stray shells from a Syrian-army-rebel battle as in former cases, but a deliberate attack. In Jerusalem, it was taken as a direct consequence of Moscow’s account to Assad of the conversation between the Russian and Israeli leaders. They concluded that Assad took it for granted that he was now at liberty to go on the offensive against Israel.
Wednesday night, Netanyahu’s office reacted to this deterioration with a swift and strong warning.
Israeli media were informed bluntly that if the Assad chose to retaliate for Israel’s air strikes, he would be removed from power.
That same night, “a senior Israeli official” contacted The New York Times with a more detailed warning quoted by the paper: “If Syrian President Assad reacts by attacking Israel, or tries to strike Israel through his terrorist proxies, he will risk forfeiting his regime, for Israel will retaliate.”
Within hours, early Thursday morning, May 16, Jerusalem had its answer from Damascus.
A Palestinian group calling itself “Martyrs of the Abdel Qader al-Husseini Brigades” (named for the commander of a Palestinian force fighting Israel in its 1948 War of Independence) claimed responsibility for the “rockets” aimed at an Israeli military observation post in the Golan Heights. They were fired in honor of Nakba Day, said the statement released in Damascus “We are not celebrating but avenging the blood of our martyrs.”
A video showing the launch was appended.
Palestinian terrorist groups habitually use made-up names when claiming attacks, a practice often followed by al Qaeda, but this one was easily identified by Israel and taken to mean that Assad had begun using what the Israeli official referred to in The New York Times as “his terrorist proxies.”
Depending on the next move decided on by Prime Minister Netanyahu, Defense Minister Moshe Ya’alon and Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Benny Gantz, this incident could mark the tipping-point of a slide towards a war confrontation against Israel by Syria, Hizballah and other Assad proxies.
@ Felix Quigley:
That’s some mouthful Felix. Good to know where I stand; I would never have guessed a boy from Glasgow could have come so far.
But I have to say, I have no idea what this latest post of yours means.
@ yamit82:
Putin made the decision. He should not assume that Israel will back off fighting terrorists because he has committed his rocket experts to helping them out in their efforts to kill Israelis.
@ Max:
“If US puts some cards in the game.”
What makes you think the US has any stomach for this? So, they send some helicopters. Maybe they’ll send some other stuff. Putin knows that Obama is a pussy and will do nothing. To Obama, the only thing a Marine is good for is to hold his umbrella.
Laura Said:
As pragmatic as one can be, it is very difficult to join people who hate U from day 1!
Iranians do that very well.
It is all the fault of Russia who continues to support a mad secular Islamist and protect the Iranian nuke program from its birth. In the mean time the Russians are the victims of their KGB leaders.
@ SHmuel HaLevi:
SHmuel I realize you didn’t mean they were feeble or soft.
.
Your right, the very reason the Arab knuckleheads feel they can go around throwing rocks at Israelis. They should get real bullets up their butts and then deported.
They should remove the rock throwers from the Temple area.
While I am at it, again this leadership needs to stand tall and allow their people to pray at their Temple.
They don’t want to offend the Muslims who want to kill them. Something wrong with this picture.
@ rongrand:
Hi Ron,
I never said or at least never meant to say that the soldiers are anything but superb.
From the Staff generals down to colonels, with counted exceptions, that feebleness has been made part of doctrine. The widespread institution of soft hand withe terrorists, “rubber bullets”, calibrated responses, “paint ball rifles”, symbolize the feebleness I refer to.
Israelis conditioned here are not fit to lead our people. You are correct. IT IS the leadership.
Remember the stupid prop Netanyahu used about Iran’s nuclear plans? He lied. He always does.
He also applauded himself regarding the economy, regrettably he also lied on that. 12 billion dollars in the red and huge increases of taxes and of course cuts on service and rate increases.
He “shleps” like a peacock all over using taxpayers money w/o limits, while never gaining anything of relevance for the people.
@ yamit82:
Say Uncle, you heard me complain about the so called moderation program.
I have been after Ted to get rid of it often enough.
First of all I like Spam, fried w/eggs, in toasted cheese sandwiches.
I trust Ted is aware Spam is a form of Ham and since this is a Jewish site Ham is not permitted.
So what is his problem???
comment blocked by spam filter????? Illogical!!!!
The Russian economy is maintained by Energy commodities and military weapons.
With new supplies coming on line their economic base is about to take a big hit. That leaves military production. Since the Fall of the USSR Russia is no longer in a position to give away freebees, it a cash and carry business for them.
If Israel takes out operational S-300’s not only will it damage Russian prestige but more importantly will damage future sales. I believe this is the main reason that Russia has so far not delivered the contracted system to Iran which I understand is suing Russia for breach of contract.
As long as Russia believed Israel’s attack was imminent they were not about to run the risk that Israel would take out their top of the line air defense system.
I believe that Russia no longer believes Israel will attack Iran nor would Israel be willing to go head to head with Russia. So it looks like the Russians are embarking on a game of chicken type brinkmanship.
Israel has evaluated older S-300’s on loan from Greece and Cyprus and have probably solved the problem as to how to destroy them, even if the newest models sent to Syria have software upgrades. The biggest problem is that Russia will have Russian military manning the system in Syria and to take them out means taking out Russian operators with them.
Reminds me of the First Israel Lebanon war when they put artillery and Katusha batteries in the courtyard of the Russian Embassy in Beirut. Israel took them out by use of commandos. Then there was Russian pilots flying Egyptian and Syrian aircraft during the Yom Kippur War. Israel shot them all down with no response from Russia.
Today we have no guts BB so all bets are off.
@ SHmuel HaLevi:
SHmuel, I am not convinced the IDF is as you say feeble.
My take is they are hamstrung by a weak government.
I indicated before the IDF wasn’t allowed to finish the job in operation “Cast Lead” and most recent “Pillar of Defense”.
The IDF is capable of taking out Hamas top down and they should. They have every right to do so.
The problem is the government leaders have weak knees, always worrying about world opinion and what other government leader will think.
Well first of all world opinion is not under attack nor is other governments, Israel is.
You don’t have to apologize to your friends and the rest can go pound sand.
I believe Israel’s neighbors fear the IDF and rightfully so.
Hats off to the fine young men and women of the IDF
@ SHmuel HaLevi:
Yep – Bad News Bear all round.
Much simpler than all of that.
Netanyahu never planned to stop Iran but lied as is his wont.
To cover the end game results regarding Iran’s nuclear program, Netanyahu is trying to make noise where he believes there is a remote chance for the feeble IDF to do something, Syria.
It is likely thar Russia closed that also.
Felix Quigley Said:
E = MC(Squared)
OK?
Preoccupied by the rebels
Destroyed by the Rebels
That is what you say above…So you ARE on the side of the Muslim Brotherhood and this is exactly what happened in Egypt and Libya
This represents the lethal nature of you capitalist and bourgeois and pro-capitalist imperialist jews, who are now a huge danger for the Jewish people.
You have just called for the fascists to take over right there in that statement, have you not, explain to me how you have not.
Bernard Ross Said:
There is totally no need to invade Syria or disturb the international detente or international equation. The only thing saving off the Rebels is Assad’s airforce which is already significantly weakened – Israel merely has to selectively destroy Assad’s air assets in whichever area they want – In the areas they do that , Assad and Hezbollah will be totally preoccupied with the rebels if not destroyed by them.
Even now Assad’s radar and guidance systems are significantly compromised if not near useless.
The time to do it is now before the S-300 anti-air missiles are delivered. this is analogous to Iran getting the bomb – Israel must strike before the tactical situation changes,
The last four months have been a golden opportunity that is being thrown away.
Concurrent with selectively destroying Assad’s airforce Israel does need to Invade Southern Lebanon and finish the 2006 job. Burn them all and then let the International Jihadist Propaganda machine complain AFTER the fact not before it.
..
Those here at Israpundit advocating a greater Israeli alliance with Russia should keep this in mind.
It is an ominous sign that Putin is sending the S300 missiles to Syria and placing a nuclear armed submarine near by along with a blunt warning to Israel.
Part of Putin’s strength is derived from Russia’s large oil income. The Arab Oil Weapon and Putin’s oil income could have been demolished years ago but I was unable to get Israeli authorities to pay attention to available published documentation on this matter. Go to http://www.energysuppression.com and read how the U.S. government has, for decades, blocked individual energy inventors to keep the world enslaved to oil.
Israel should seize a buffer zone on the Syrian side of the golan with the pretext that security in the demilitarized zone has deteriorated and UNIFIL is no longer able to fulfill its duties. This will put Israel much closer to Damascus when the war front opens full force. Hezbullah has advanced to the Jordanian border in southern syria and perhaps Jordan would join in from its border. It may also be a good time to attack their supply lines in lebanon thus severing and splitting their forces.
“of a slide towards a war confrontation against Israel by Syria, Hizballah and other Assad proxies.”
“Slide”!!!??? Since when did the war ever stop? It’s time to finish them off and win this war.
The cold war with Russia is still hot. Punch the bully boys lights out. Blast Hezbollah to hell wile the chance is there and the US back the least harmful faction against the AIQ/JAN bunch and the balance changes for Israel’s favour. And use the opportunity to lay waste to all the CW in Syria.
Putin will be on the out and he knows it – game over for Putin, Iran and Hezbollah – whatever new baddies are there will be a lot easier to handle especially if US puts some cards in the game.
Putin thinks Israel and the West not tough enough to play this thing through – maybe he is right – by backing Assad they think they will win new hegemony , maybe even destroy Israel.
Prove them Frackers wrong and level Assad’s Damascus to power dust!
Assad has to lose the revolution and somehow the outcome with a Sunni state in Syria manipulated to a lesser threat.
A newly empowered Hezbollah -Russia-Iran-Syria will be a coffin wall on Israel.