Damascus, emboldened by battlefield victories, pushes a political plan even as allies prepare military offensive to retake Aleppo
BEIRUT—The Syrian regime, emboldened by battlefield victories, is pushing a political solution to end the war that keeps President Bashar al-Assad in power, in defiance of the agenda supported by Russia, his vital ally.
The plan will begin to unfold with Syrian parliamentary elections on Wednesday; the following day, Mr. Assad’s representatives will travel to peace talks in Geneva, where they are expected to push for a resolution to the conflict on Mr. Assad’s terms.
Despite political differences between Damascus and Moscow, the allies in a joint statement on Sunday signaled the imminent escalation of a military push to retake Aleppo, Syria’s largest city.
Al Qaeda’s affiliate in Syria, the Nusra Front, and allied rebel groups launched an offensive this month to recapture territory south of Aleppo that the regime took with Russia’s help earlier this year.
The military campaign has become, for Russia, too important to fail. If Moscow doesn’t help Mr. Assad’s forces in Aleppo, it would risk undoing all of Russia’s efforts since it first stepped in to prop up Mr. Assad at the end of September.
Russia tried to wield its leverage over Mr. Assad and get him to take the peace negotiations more seriously by announcing last month it was pulling out some of its troops from Syria, said Fyodor Lukyanov, head of a Kremlin advisory body known as Russia’s Council on Foreign and Defense Policy.
“This is a way to show Assad his own weaknesses,” he said. “This is a signal to him that we will not abandon you but if you think you can use us for your own success, that’s not our job.”
Mr. Assad’s political solution is a nonstarter for the mainstay opposition and contravenes the road map to end the war outlined in a United Nations Security Council resolution passed in December with Russia’s support.
The resolution calls for a transitional government that would lead to a complete overhaul of Syria’s current political system, which concentrates nearly all powers in the hands of Mr. Assad and security and intelligence services that report to him.
Mr. Assad and officials in his regime reject the whole notion of a transitional government.
Syria’s Deputy Foreign Minister Faisal al-Mekdad told the pan-Arab news channel Al-Mayadeen last week that the regime was willing to listen to the opinion and point of view of its allies, but will ultimately do what it sees fit.
“When we consult with our friends about these matters, there are red lines that nobody in Syria can ever cross,” he said, referring to the issue of Mr. Assad stepping down, among others.
Russia is stuck with Mr. Assad for the moment, said Paul Salem, vice president of policy and research at the Washington-based Middle East Institute.
“They are afraid if somebody else removes him or they remove him, the whole state will collapse,” he said. “They are hostage to his continued survival. He can withstand Russian displeasure and irritation. He feels under no compulsion to make major concessions.”
According to this thinking, Russian President Vladimir Putin needs Mr. Assad so Russia can project itself as a military and diplomatic powerhouse on par with the U.S.
Syria plans to hold parliamentary elections on Wednesday in areas under its control. Syrian officials say this is crucial to affirm the legitimacy and safeguard the continuity of state institutions presided over by Mr. Assad.
The following day, a regime delegation will travel to Geneva, where the U.N. is mediating another round of indirect peace talks with the main opposition groups.
Opposition leaders have said the election is an attempt to pre-empt mounting pressure, including from Russia and the international community, to make meaningful concessions at the Geneva talks.
The regime says it is simply fulfilling constitutional requirements which call for a new parliament to be elected every four years. The last election was May 2012.
The regime is expected to present its proposed solution to the U.N. in Geneva, officials said. It entails the creation of a new unity government after the parliamentary elections. The government would be made up mainly of pro-regime figures but with sizable participation by opposition members, who aren’t currently represented.
This government would then oversee the drafting of a new constitution, followed by another round of parliamentary elections and possibly an early presidential vote in which Mr. Assad could run, according to statements by senior regime officials. The next presidential election was expected in 2021.
The diverging interests and agendas of Mr. Assad’s key allies, Iran and Russia, may be working in the Syrian president’s favor. Iranian leaders are wedded to Mr. Assad and the regime, said Mr. Salem of the Middle East Institute.
“The regime’s survival is an existential question for the Islamic Republic,” he said.
Since the start of the conflict, Iran has spent billions of dollars and mobilized thousands of its regional militias from Iraq, Lebanon and elsewhere to prop up Mr. Assad. Iran now appears to be deepening its involvement by sending more of its own troops. Almost no day goes by now without funerals in Iran for fighters killed in Syria.
In addition to playing off Iran against Russia, the regime is also hoping the anxiety in the West over refugees and the threat of terror attacks such as those in Brussels and Paris will eventually lead to the acceptance of Mr. Assad as the only viable partner.
A group of French lawmakers mostly from far right parties visited Damascus last month and met with Mr. Assad.
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