Strategic Opinion: 5 Scenarios For a Potential Iranian Attack On Israel

JaFaJ INTELLIGENCE September 1, 2024

Overview

This briefing outlines 5 possible scenarios for Iranian attacks on Israel and include how they might coordinate with Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Houthis. The report covers the unfortunate projected loss of life, infrastructure damage, and financial impacts, along with political, social, and economic consequences for Israel, the United States, as well as country’s in the region. The analysis also presents strategic highlights from our previous document entitled: 5 Strategies for Preventing an Iranian Attack on Israel 

Attack Scenarios

Scenario 1: Coordinated Missile, Drone and Rocket Assault

Iran could launch a coordinated missile and drone attack targeting critical infrastructure in Israel, including military bases, energy facilities, and transportation networks. Such an attack would aim to cripple Israel’s ability to respond quickly and effectively to subsequent threats.

• Timing: During a holiday, celebration, special occasion or heightened regional tension(s), potentially coinciding with either Israeli military operations or when other world events occur.
• Locations: First Strike Possibilities
• Tel Aviv and Jerusalem: Major urban centers targeted by ballistic missiles¹.
• Haifa: Key port city facing missile attacks².
• Coordination: JaFaJ is of the opinion that this will be a coordinated, staggered attack
• Hezbollah: Launch rockets from southern Lebanon³.
• Hamas: Conduct simultaneous rocket attacks from Gaza⁴.
• Houthis: Deploy drones to disrupt maritime traffic⁵.
• Damage Projections: Depends on Iron Dome’s effectiveness and Missile landing location(s)
• Infrastructure: Significant damage to residential and commercial areas, transportation networks, and power grids⁶.
• Financial: Estimated at $15 billion due to infrastructure destruction and economic disruption⁷.
• Casualties: 2,000-4,000 civilian casualties, with additional military casualties⁸. 

Note: An approach similar to this was apparently tried in April and failed begging the question: was that a test?

 Scenario 2: Cyber and Infrastructure Disruption

A sophisticated cyberattack could be executed to disable or significantly impair Israel’s defense and communication systems. This scenario would involve a concerted effort to exploit vulnerabilities in Israel’s cybersecurity infrastructure, rendering its military responses less effective and creating widespread chaos.

• Timing: Coordinated with physical scenario 1 attacks to maximize impact.
• Locations: First Strike Possibilities
• National Power Grid: Targeted to cause widespread blackouts⁹.
• Water Treatment Plants: Disrupt water supply in major cities¹⁰.
• Coordination: This will occur all at once, in waves – most likely minutes apart
• Hezbollah: Cyberattacks on Israeli infrastructure¹¹.
• Hamas: Ground operations to sabotage key facilities¹².
• Houthis: Cyber operations affecting maritime and logistical networks¹³.
• Damage Projections:
• Infrastructure: Extensive damage to critical infrastructure,  including phone and internet communications, causing long-term chaos and disruptions¹⁴.
• Financial: Approximately $10 billion, with long-term economic impacts¹⁵.
• Casualties: 500-1,000 casualties due to infrastructure failures and subsequent crises¹⁶. 

Scenario 3: Combined Ground and Air Assault

Iranian-backed militias, such as Hezbollah in Lebanon and various factions in Gaza, could initiate coordinated assaults on Israel’s borders. This would involve rocket attacks, ground incursions, and possibly even attempts to capture Israeli territory.

• Timing: Possible during a period of Israeli military engagement elsewhere.
• Locations: First Strike Possibilities
• Northern Israel: Hezbollah conducts ground incursions from Lebanon¹⁷.
• Southern Israel: Hamas launches ground assaults from Gaza¹⁸.
• Coordination:
• Hezbollah: Ground troops and artillery attacks¹⁹.
• Hamas: Coordinated ground and rocket attacks²⁰.
• Houthis: Disrupt supply lines and logistical routes²¹.
• Damage Projections:
• Infrastructure: Severe damage to military bases, border defenses, and residential areas²².
• Financial: Around $8 billion, with significant reconstruction costs²³.
• Casualties: 1,500-3,000 casualties including military and civilian²⁴. 

Scenario 4: Strategic Maritime, Port Attacks & Blockade

Iran could deploy its naval forces to establish a blockade in the Mediterranean, targeting Israeli commercial and military shipping. This scenario would disrupt Israel’s trade routes, impacting its economy and limiting its military logistics.

• Timing: Potential during increased regional maritime traffic or conflicts.
• Locations: First Strike Possibilities
• Haifa Port: Major port targeted by maritime attacks²⁵.
• Ashdod Port: Disruptions to shipping and trade²⁶.
• Coordination:
• Hezbollah: Launch maritime attacks from the Lebanese coast²⁷.
• Hamas: Use of naval mines and small boats²⁸.
• Houthis: Coordinate with naval attacks on international shipping²⁹.
• Damage Projections:
• Infrastructure: Extensive damage to ports and maritime facilities³⁰.
• Financial: Estimated at $5 billion due to trade disruptions and port damage³¹.
• Casualties: 300-700 casualties, including port workers and maritime personnel³². 

Scenario 5: Psychological and Economic Warfare

This scenario involves a comprehensive psychological and economic warfare campaign aimed at destabilizing Israel by undermining public morale, creating economic uncertainty, and inducing a state of panic, using psychological manipulation and economic disruption.

• Psychological Warfare Tactics:
• Propaganda and Disinformation: Spread false information to create insecurity and distrust within Israeli society.
• Psychological Operations: Induce fear and confusion through targeted psychological operations.
• Economic Warfare Tactics:
• Cyberattacks on Financial Systems: Target financial infrastructure to create market volatility and economic uncertainty.
• Disruptions in Trade and Commerce: Sabotage key Israeli economic sectors, impairing Israel’s internal and external trade and resource accusation and management.
• Impact:
• Psychological Impact: Induce widespread fear, despair, anxiety, and uncertainty, decreasing morale.
• Economic Impact: Significant financial losses due to market instability and operational disruptions. Estimated losses at $6 billion.
• Political Consequences: Increased internal and external political pressure, potentially leading to more aggressive Israeli countermeasures.

Timing, Locations, Coordination and projections:

• Timing: Coordinated with physical attacks to maximize psychological impact.
• Locations: First Strike Possibilities
• Major Urban Areas: Tel Aviv, Jerusalem, and Haifa³³.
• Coordination:
• Hezbollah: Propaganda and psychological operations³⁴.
• Hamas: Disruptions in daily life and targeted attacks³⁵.
• Houthis: Cyberattacks on financial systems³⁶.
• Damage Projections:
• Infrastructure Damage: Indirect damage through psychological impact and economic instability³⁷.
• Financial Damage: Estimated at $6 billion due to market volatility and economic disruption³⁸.
• Loss of Life: Indirect casualties due to panic and disruptions, estimated at 200-500³⁹. 

Overall Scenario Analysis:

JaFaJ assesses that a multifaceted approach, incorporating elements from each scenario, is the most likely course of action. This complicates the ability to accurately predict the timing, sequence, coordination, and potential damage of such an attack. Nonetheless, under this combined scenario, it is anticipated that all identified targets would be at risk. The critical questions remain: When will the attack commence, and which targets will be prioritized?                

Note: It appears that ‘testing this hypothesis appears to have taken place in April when Iran launched over 300 drones and missiles into Israel that were shot down. 

Political, Social, and Economic Consequences

Israel:

• Political: Increased military readiness, potential international condemnation, and possible escalation of regional conflict⁴⁰.
• Social: Public panic, increased casualties, and significant disruption to daily life⁴¹.
• Economic: High financial costs due to infrastructure damage, economic disruption, and recovery expenses⁴².

United States:

• Political: Potential for increased diplomatic and military involvement⁴³.
• Social: Potential impact on U.S. domestic security and public opinion⁴⁴.
• Economic: Impact on global oil markets and trade routes, potential for increased military spending⁴⁵.

Region:

• Political: Risk of broader regional conflict involving neighboring countries⁴⁶.
• Social: Increased refugee flows and humanitarian crises⁴⁷.
• Economic: Disruption of trade, increased oil prices, and economic instability in affected countries⁴⁸. 

Implications for Neighboring Nations

1.     Jordan:

• Impact: Increased refugee flows and strain on resources⁵⁹.
• Response: Potential need for international assistance and enhanced border security⁶⁰.

2.     Egypt:

• Impact: Potential for disruptions in Sinai and increased security concerns⁶¹.
• Response: Possible increased military deployment and coordination with international partners⁶².

3.     Gaza:

• Impact: Direct involvement in conflict with increased casualties and damage⁶³.
• Response: Hamas might face intensified Israeli retaliation⁶⁴.

4.     Lebanon:

• Impact: Hezbollah’s involvement could exacerbate internal instability and economic difficulties⁶⁵.
• Response: Potential for internal conflict and international assistance⁶⁶.

5.     Saudi Arabia:

• Impact: Disruptions in oil routes and increased regional tensions⁶⁷.
• Response: Enhanced defensive measures and coordination with international allies⁶⁸.

6.     Syria:

• Impact: Further destabilization and potential involvement in regional conflict⁶⁹.
• Response: Increased pressure on Syrian territory and possible international intervention⁷⁰. 

Suggestions and Preventive Measures for Israel

1.     Strengthen Defense Systems:

• Enhance missile defense systems (Iron Dome, Arrow) to intercept and neutralize threats⁴⁹.
• Expand cybersecurity measures to protect critical infrastructure and economic systems⁵⁰.

2.     Intelligence and Surveillance:

• Increase surveillance of regional actors and potential threats to improve early warning systems⁵¹.
• Enhance intelligence sharing with allies for better threat assessment and coordination⁵².

3.     Diplomatic Initiatives:

• Engage in proactive diplomacy to build international support and apply pressure on Iran and its proxies⁵³.
• Negotiate regional stability through diplomatic channels to reduce the risk of conflict escalation⁵⁴.

4.     Economic Preparedness:

• Diversify energy sources and enhance resilience to economic disruptions caused by conflict⁵⁵.
• Develop contingency plans for economic and infrastructure recovery post-attack⁵⁶.

5.     Public Awareness and Preparedness:

• Educate the public on emergency response and preparedness to minimize panic and enhance resilience⁵⁷.
• Conduct regular drills and preparedness exercises to ensure readiness for potential attacks⁵⁸. 

Conclusion

The potential Iranian attack on Israel poses complex challenges with widespread implications. The political, social, and economic impacts will likely extend far beyond the immediate conflict, affecting neighboring nations and the broader global economy. JaFaJ’s analysis suggests that a multi-scenario approach is the most probable outcome, complicating efforts to predict the exact timing and sequence of events. However, the anticipated widespread impact on political stability, social cohesion, and economic conditions is clear. 

Disclaimer

This report represents a speculative analysis based on current geopolitical conditions. The scenarios are not predictions but potential outcomes to consider for strategic planning.