New Palestinian Poll

IMRA

PSR poll of Palestinians:55%:40% support eventual confederation with Jordan, 61% Reconciliation with Hamas requires ending security coordination with Israel

PSR poll 48 – June 2013

While a majority supports the appointment of Rami Al Hamdallah as Prime
Minister, 40% believe the Palestinian Authority has become a burden on the
Palestinian people and only 30% believe that it is an accomplishment. And
while Ismail Haniyeh wins against Abbas in presidential elections in the
Gaza Strip, half of the public believes that the Palestinian have a failed
leadership

13-15 June 2013

These are the results of the latest poll conducted by the Palestinian Center
for Policy and Survey Research (PSR) in the West Bank and the Gaza Strip
between 13-15 June 2013. The period before the poll witnessed the
resignation of the government of Salam Fayyad and the appointment of a new
government headed by Rami Al Hamdallah, President of Al Najah University.
The period also witnessed the re-election of Khalid Mishaal as head of
Hamas’s political bureau for a new term and the postponement of the
formation of a reconciliation government. This press release covers public
evaluation of the general West Bank and Gaza conditions, elections,
reconciliation, public evaluation of the performance of the government of
Ismail Haniyeh, public satisfaction with the performance of President Mahmud
Abbas, the internal balance of power between Fateh and Hamas, and the views
of the public on the most vital Palestinian goals and the main problems
Palestinians confront today. Total size of the sample is 1270 adults
interviewed face to face in 127 randomly selected locations. Margin of error
is 3%.

For further details, contact PSR director, Dr. Khalil Shikaki, or Walid
Ladadweh at tel 02-296 4933 or email pcpsr@pcpsr.org.

Main Findings:

Findings of the second quarter of 2013 show that a majority of the public
supports the appointment of Rami Al Hamdallah as prime minister and that two
thirds support the resignation of Salam Fayyad. Despite this, half of the
public agrees with the view attributed to Fayyad that the Palestinian
leadership has been a failed one from the beginnings. Indeed, less than a
third of the public believes that the Palestinian Authority (PA), with its
two parts in the West Bank and the Gaza Strip, is an accomplishment for the
Palestinian people while 40% believe that the PA is a burden on the
Palestinian people. There is no doubt that the deteriorating economic
conditions in the West Bank, the pessimism about the chances for
reconciliation, and the continued deadlock in the political process
negatively affect public assessment of the PA and the Palestinian
leadership. Findings also indicate a rise in Hamas popularity and that of
Ismail Haniyeh in the Gaza Strip only with support for Hamas and Fatah very
close and with Haniyeh winning over Abbas by five percentage points.

In the West Bank, however, Fatah remains more popular than Hamas, with 17
percentage point difference and Abbas against Haniyeh with 13 percentage
point difference.

Findings also indicate that optimism about reconciliation between Fatah and
Hamas is in decline and that the belief that the current split is permanent
or will stay for a long time is on the rise. A majority believes that the
chances for reconciliation are non-existent as long as freedom is denied to
supporters of Fatah and Hamas in the Gaza Strip and the West Bank
respectively, as long as no date is set for national elections, as long as
security coordination with Israel continues, and as long as Hamas refuses to
accept agreements signed between the PLO and Israel. .

Finally, findings show that a clear majority supports the Abbas-Abdullah
Holy Places Agreement, signed on 31 March 2013, which recognizes Kind
Abdullah’s custodianship over al Haram al Sharif in East Jerusalem. But only a slightly less than a third supports an immediate confederation with Jordan while one quarter support such confederation later after the ending of
occupation. The largest percentage opposes a confederation with Jordan, now or in the future.

(1) Presidential and Legislative Elections:

If new presidential elections are held today and only two were nominated,
Abbas would receive the vote of 49% and Haniyeh 44% of the vote of those
participating. The rate of participation in such elections would reach 64%.
Three months ago, Abbas received the support of 52% and Haniyeh 41%. In this
poll, in the Gaza Strip, Abbas receives 46% and Haniyeh 51% and in the West
Bank Abbas receives 51% and Haniyeh 38%.

If presidential elections were between Marwan Barghouti and Ismail Haniyeh,
the former would receive 57% and the latter would receive 36% of the
participants’ votes. The rate of participation in this case would reach 72%.
In our March poll Barghouti received 60% of the vote and Haniyeh 33%.

If presidential elections were between three: Mahmud Abbas, Marwan Barghouti
and Ismail Haniyeh, Barghouti would receive the largest percentage (35%)
followed by Haniyeh (33%), and Abbas (27%). The rate of participation in
this case would reach 76%. In our previous poll last March, Barghouti
received 38%, Haniyeh 31%, and Abbas 26%.

If new legislative elections are held today with the participation of all
factions, 72% say they would participate in such elections. Of those who
would participate, 30% say they would vote for Hamas and 41% say they would
vote for Fatah, 9% would vote for all other third parties combined, and 21%
are undecided. Vote for Hamas in the Gaza Strip stands in this poll at 38%
and in the West Bank at 24%. Vote for Fatah in the Gaza Strip stands in this
poll at 41% and in the West Bank at 41%. These results are similar to those
obtained three months ago with the exception of the vote for Hamas in the
Gaza Strip which stood at 33% at that time.

(2) Domestic Conditions:

Positive evaluation of conditions in the Gaza Strip rises from 32% three
months ago to 36% in this poll while 38% say conditions are bad or very bad.

Positive evaluation of conditions in the West Bank rises slightly from 29%
three months ago to 31% in this poll while 37% say conditions are bad or
very bad.

Perception of corruption in PA institutions in the West Bank stands at 77%
in this poll. Perception of corruption in the public institutions of Hamas’
Gaza government stands at 61%.
22% say there is, and 45% say there is to some extent, press freedom in the
West Bank. By contrast, 19% say there is, and 34% say there is to some
extent, press freedom in the Gaza Strip.

32% of the Palestinian public say people in the West Bank can criticize the
authority in the West Bank without fear. By contrast, 23% of the public say
people in the Gaza Strip can criticize the authorities in Gaza without fear.

Perception of safety and security in the West Bank stands at 56% and in the
Gaza Strip at 64%. Three months ago these percentages stood at 67% in the
Gaza Strip and 54% in the West Bank.

Findings show that the percentage of Gazans who say they seek immigration to
other countries stands at 42%; in the West Bank, the percentage stands at
27%. Last March these percentages stood at 49% and 27% respectively.

Positive evaluation of the performance of the Haniyeh government stands at
41%.

Percentage of satisfaction with the performance of President Abbas remains
unchanged at 49%. Dissatisfaction with the president performance stands
today at 48%.

Two thirds support and 24% oppose the resignation of Salam Fayyad as prime
minister.

By contrast, 59% support the appointment of Rami Al Hamdallah as prime
minister; 21% oppose the appointment and 20% expressed no opinion.

49% agree with a statement attributed to Salam Fayyad that the Palestinian
leadership from the beginning has been a failed one and 47% disagree with
the statement.

(3) Reconciliation:

Given the ups and downs in the Fateh-Hamas reconciliation dialogue,
percentage of optimism about the chances for reunification of the West Bank
and the Gaza Strip stands at 17%. The belief that unity is impossible and
that two separate entities will emerge increases from 33% three months ago
to 36% in this poll. 44% believe that unity will be restored but only after
a long time.

34% say that ending the split requires regime change in both the West Bank
and the Gaza Strip while 13% say it requires regime change in the Gaza Strip
only and an identical percentage believes that it requires regime change in
the West Bank. Only 34% say that restoring unity does not require regime
change in the West Bank or the Gaza Strip.

We asked respondents about conditions under which they believe
reconciliation cannot succeed. Three quarters believe that reconciliation
will not succeed without first ending the restrictions on freedoms enjoyed
by supporters of Hamas in the West Bank and a similar percentage (74%)
believes that it will not succeed without ending restrictions on freedoms
enjoyed by supporters of Fatah in the Gaza Strip.

Similarly, 66% say it will not succeed without first agreeing on an election
date; 59% say it will not succeed if Hamas continues to reject agreements
signed by the PLO with Israel; 61% say it will not succeed if security
coordination with Israel in the West Bank continues; another 60% say it will
not succeed if the PA continues to recognize Israel and the Oslo agreements;
and 50% say it will not succeed as along as Hamas insists on keeping its al
Qassam armed wing in the Gaza Strip.

The largest percentage (40%) believes that the PA, with its parts in the
West Bank and the Gaza Strip, has become a burden on the Palestinian people
and 30% believe that it is an accomplishment for the Palestinian people.
Furthermore, 12% believe that the PA in the West Bank is an accomplishment
while the PA in the Gaza Strip is a burden. By contrast, an identical
percentage (12%) believes that the PA in the Gaza Strip is an accomplishment
while the PA in the West Bank is a burden.

28% say that the election of Khalid Mishaal as head of Hamas for a new term
will speed up the process of reconciliation while 22% say it will slow it
down. 42% say it will have no impact on reconciliation.

(4) Most vital Palestinian goals and the main problems confronting
Palestinians today:

42% believe that the first most vital Palestinian goal should be to end
Israeli occupation in the areas occupied in 1967 and build a Palestinian
state in the West Bank and the Gaza Strip with East Jerusalem as its
capital. By contrast, 34% believe the first most vital goal should be to
obtain the right of return of refugees to their 1948 towns and villages, 14%
believe that it should be to build a pious or moral individual and a
religious society, one that applies all Islamic teachings, and 10% believe
that the first and most vital goal should be to establish a democratic
political system that respects freedoms and rights of Palestinians. Three
months ago, 46% said ending occupation and building a state was most vital
goal and 31% said the most vital goal was the right of return.

The most serious problem confronting Palestinian society today is the spread
of poverty and unemployment in the eyes of 29% of the public while 23% say
it is the absence of national unity due to the West Bank-Gaza Strip split,
22% believe the most serious problem is the continuation of occupation and
settlement activities, 18% believe the most serious problem is corruption in
some public institutions, and 7% believe it is the siege and the closure of
the Gaza border crossings.

(5) Holy Places Agreement and relations with Jordan:

58% support and 41% oppose the Holy Places agreement signed between Kind
Abdullah of Jordan the Mahmud Abbas in which the Palestinian side
acknowledges the King’s custodianship over al Haram al Sharif (Noble
Sanctuary) in Jerusalem.

But 40% say they oppose a confederation with Jordan now and in the future
while 31% say they support a confederation with Jordan now and 24% say they
support a confederation with Jordan but only after the ending of Israeli
occupation.