Major turnaround in the LA Times daily tracking poll (Oct. 26):

technopeasant • 3 hours ago

chart

Trump: 45.3 (+1.2)
Clinton 44.2 (-0.8)

DT+1.1 (was HC+0.9 yesterday)

Demographic shifts in margins:

Demo————————Oct 24————–Oct 25———-Diff—–
Males———————-DT+10.2————-DT+12.9——-DT+2.7
Females——————HC+11.5————-HC+10.1——HC(-1.4)
18-34———————-HC+8.2————–HC+1.0——–HC (-7.2)
35-64———————-DT+1.1————–HC+0.5——–DT(-1.6)
65+————————DT+3.2—————DT+7.1——–DT+3.9
Whites——————–DT+19.7————-DT+20.8——-DT+1.1
Blacks——————–HC+82.5————HC+80.8——-HC(-1.7)
Hispanics—————HC+23.5————-HC+18.4——-HC(-5.1)
High school————-DT+8.8————–DT+12.8——–DT+4.0
Some college———-DT+3.5————–DT+4.3———-DT+0.8
College grad———–HC+14.9————HC+13.8——–HC(-1.1)
< $35K/yr.---------------HC+18.7------------HC+19.2--------HC+0.5 $35K--$75K/yr.--------DT+9.5--------------DT+12.7--------DT+3.2 >$75K+/yr.—————DT+2.4————–DT+5.2———-DT+2.8

October 26, 2016 | 9 Comments »

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  2. The poll factories turning bull shinola into forecasts are mesmerizing.
    During my long Senior-Fellow Engineering career with Uncle Sam’s Military Avionics Programs, we utilized by contract mandates, a giant array of statistical tools for many applications. From Life forecasting via Testing to failure analysis and also other subjects.
    From the top. To forecast using statistical methods one must use data bases clean from introduced biases.
    One may do so for experimental purposes though. Or to fiddle with the unsuspecting users.
    In the US all of the poll fabricants use or should use the same population, the valid US voter data base, from which they extract the sample lots.
    Consequently one must have the common sense if not training to understand that since all pollsters use the same raw material and likely lot sizes ALL the results should fall within predictable UCL and LCL.
    Remarkably and contrary to verifiable processes results the bunk packaged for the unaware voter consumption is repeated by talking heads using staccato deliveries, akin to that manekin M. Kelly sharp barks. She is a self deluded prattle popper that suddenly trows up this or that piles of trash trying to make them gospel truth.
    Further. Forget about the pollsters FOM rankings…

    Somebody must delve into the Statistical magic wands producing completely different results out of the same population and data base.
    Meanwhile this is my working premise. Those “polls” results polluting the obtuse population are total trash.

  6. Arutz Sheva reports that a USA Today/Suffolk Poll gives Clinton a 10 point lead.
    Where would they be getting those kinds of figures, except from a skewed poll…?

    I’ve beem noticing for a long ime, that A7 leans heavily towards the Democrats and Clinton…I wonder why, since they are supposed to be Israel’s NATIONAL Newspaper… Not Clinton’s…..

    What they need is a little Kryptonite, not Clintonite..

  8. He’s sticking to message and she’s sinking and stinking more with corruption. Expect a shock November 8th. It’ll be for the dog (Hillary) like it was for Jimm-eh Carter getting the news first thing on election day that it was all over for him, that Reagan would obliterate him later that day.

  9. Much will happen along the way.
    I watched Donia M. Kelly, Fox News?, spewing poison among hisses against Mr. Trump and that indicates that the Clinton MSM shills have been ordered to up the shrill level to try to cover the drops. Miss Kelly tried her fangs on N. Gingrich and got back some nice slams. She indeed proved that she has skin thicker than Shelob’s.
    The final result is a toss up but signs are good for Mr. Trump. He should not use Wagner’s music for his background sound.