The Key is the Military
By Charles Krauthammer, WaPo
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Yes, the Egyptian revolution is broad-based. But so were the French and the Russian and the Iranian revolutions. Indeed in Iran, the revolution only succeeded – the shah was long opposed by the mullahs – when the merchants, the housewives, the students and the secularists joined to bring him down.
And who ended up in control? The most disciplined, ruthless and ideologically committed – the radical Islamists.
This is why our paramount moral and strategic interest in Egypt is real democracy in which power does not devolve to those who believe in one man, one vote, one time. That would be Egypt’s fate should the Muslim Brotherhood prevail. That was the fate of Gaza, now under the brutal thumb of Hamas, a Palestinian wing (see Article 2 of Hamas’s founding covenant) of the Muslim Brotherhood.
We are told by sage Western analysts not to worry about the Brotherhood because it probably commands only about 30 percent of the vote. This is reassurance? In a country where the secular democratic opposition is weak and fractured after decades of persecution, any Islamist party commanding a third of the vote rules the country.
Elections will be held. The primary U.S. objective is to guide a transition period that gives secular democrats a chance.
The House of Mubarak is no more. He is 82, reviled and not running for reelection. The only question is who fills the vacuum. There are two principal possibilities: a provisional government of opposition forces, possibly led by Mohamed ElBaradei, or an interim government led by the military.
ElBaradei would be a disaster. As head of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), he did more than anyone to make an Iranian nuclear bomb possible, covering for the mullahs for years. (As soon as he left, the IAEA issued a strikingly tough, unvarnished report about the program.)
Worse, ElBaradei has allied himself with the Muslim Brotherhood. Such an alliance is grossly unequal. The Brotherhood has organization, discipline and widespread support. In 2005, it won approximately 20 percent of parliamentary seats. ElBaradei has no constituency of his own, no political base, no political history within Egypt at all.
He has lived abroad for decades. He has less of a residency claim to Egypt than Rahm Emanuel has to Chicago. A man with no constituency allied with a highly organized and powerful political party is nothing but a mouthpiece and a figurehead, a useful idiot whom the Brotherhood will dispense with when it ceases to have need of a cosmopolitan frontman.
The Egyptian military, on the other hand, is the most stable and important institution in the country. It is Western-oriented and rightly suspicious of the Brotherhood. And it is widely respected, carrying the prestige of the 1952 Free Officers Movement that overthrew the monarchy and the 1973 October War that restored Egyptian pride along with the Sinai.
The military is the best vehicle for guiding the country to free elections over the coming months. Whether it does so with Mubarak at the top, or with Vice President Omar Suleiman or perhaps with some technocrat who arouses no ire among the demonstrators, matters not to us. If the army calculates that sacrificing Mubarak (through exile) will satisfy the opposition and end the unrest, so be it.
The overriding objective is a period of stability during which secularists and other democratic elements of civil society can organize themselves for the coming elections and prevail. ElBaradei is a menace. Mubarak will be gone one way or the other. The key is the military. The United States should say very little in public and do everything behind the scenes to help the military midwife – and then guarantee – what is still something of a long shot: Egyptian democracy.
Oh My!
I know that all of Israels enemies, whether they the muslims, our current administration, and their radicals left over from the 60’s, the communists current in power here are all salivating of having surrounded Israel.
I can only hope they realise no matter how many wars they draw Israel into, hoping to wipe Israel off the map – that it will never come to the point of Israel having to use his most deterrence – the nukes.
I’m 100% IN agreement with Yamit, as I’ve been since jsubsacribing to this blog some 4 years ago. I look forward to all your posts Yamit. I find clarity reassuring.
Between Egypt and Iran I say Egypt is our more dangerous existential enemy. They have an advanced Nuke program and with a national push could have nukes in a few years some say as little as 2. While I take Iran seriously they compared with the Arabs are very civilized and have not attacked or invaded another country for over a thousand years. Egypt has threatened or attacked us directly 3 times since 48′. They have the largest, best equipped and best trained military in the region. Mubarak is finished whether he goes now or in a year, so why support him. Any regime replacing him will be less friendly and under the influence of radical Islamicists even if they front a more moderate face.
The quandary Israel will face soon is whether to destroy Egypt’s nuke potential today when it is benign or in a few years have to fight them with them being a nuclear power. An Egypt maintaining a peace accord with Israel protects themselves from being attacked while they clandestinely build their nuke potential.
Counterintuitivly The best thing that could happen to or for Israel is to have Mubarak exit and the MB or their proxy attain power. We will have to fight them sooner or later and better to be sooner.
As for my pluming solutions, the best way to prove we would use our plumbing tools is to actually use them like against Iran, Syria and Lebanon.
I favor Iran even if we don’t take out their nuke program. it would send the message we will use them if necessary and along the way I would nuke at least one oil field to send a message to our European and American friends not to mention China. Then remind them of Aswan dam. Silly to fight expensive conventional wars when you don’t have to.
Israel will have to become a very militaristic and even aggressive state in order to keep the wolves at bey. Retaking Sinai and the WB is a preliminary given, fighting under our own nuclear umbrella.
BB and Livni are the same so I am not put off by the threat of Livni replacing BB, it’s not the only option or conclusion though, there could be other options some not yet apparent.
Despite all the stupid American and British talking heads showing little concern over the MB gaining power in Egypt and elsewhere, when the shit hits the fan and they look around only Israel remains in this area to be backed by the West. The rest will be lined up solidly against the West and especially America.
Russia and China will back the Islamists in the region and some facsimile to the lineup of the cold war will return.
Yamit, you said,
Remind me never to ask you to fix problems on my house. Your solution to everything seems to be to burn the place down. What makes you think that threatening the Egyptians will bring any results? The Egyptians know fully well what Israel is capable of doing, and they also know fully well that Israel will not use their capabilities. Publicly wishing your PM will be deposed (and replaced, as you know, by Tzipi Livni) will not solve anything. I don’t know whom you think you’re benefitting with your constant, futile complaining.
Mubarak needs support right now, and Israel needs to prepare for war. The situation in Sinai is deteriorating fast, and affecting Jordan. More than ever, the interests of Saudi Arabia, Jordan and Egypt coincide with those of Israel; the US has never been more of an enemy to all of you and Iran has never been so emboldened (and at the same time, weak). If Israel (that includes you) doesn’t do something affirmative and soon, you all might as well build yourselves a big raft and try your luck in the Saragasso Sea.
See comment #1:
The one caveat left unmentioned here is……just how deep is the Muslim Brotherhood infiltration into the military? That they have infiltrated, and to a degree integrated into the Egyptian military is a fact, the only question is, to what degree.
Krauthhamer rocks!
I always liked Krauthammer! His observations are always acute and much appreciated. The bottom line is that when you replace one dictator with a worse dictator you have not improved FREEDOM for the citizens, but replacing one form of slavery with another form of slavery.
We need to start teaching people that it’s okay to be against money, Islam, communism, socialism and capitalism, but it’s not okay to terrorize others over those beliefs. Terrorist thugs who murder, hurt, injure, maim and exploit the innocent will themselves receive the due panalties for their perversions.
My prayer is that all peaceful loving countries unite together against terrorists and terrorism.
Obama was not quick to speak out against Iran because the Iranian president could kick his ass.
Obama was quick to speak out against Mubarak because he could hide behind the Clintons against the little Egyptian man.
Obama is a different kind of terrorist – what I would call a PEACEFUL TERRORIST. Oh the irony.
We’re all in trouble and it will be up to the protectorates of our civilized countries to remove the barbarisms being committed, from Mubarak to Barack.
The Egyptian Army is structured along the line of the Turkish Military and Iranian National Guards. They have vast independent economic interests in Egypt and Internationally. They enjoy many benefits not afforded any other sector of Egyptian society. Most of the Army are conscripts and reflect the thinking and will of a majority of Egyptians. estimates put he MB membership and influence among the Army at 30-50%. Even if the majority of the top Egyptian officer cadre is non aligned to MB, they will not oppose them if they are guaranteed a continuation of their status and financial interests.
If they are as I believe pragmatic and if their interests are vouched-safe they will probably not oppose a government led by the MB, if it means stability. The military has never been happy with the Peace Agreement with Israel even more so than the MB. They have been building their Army, infrastructure and training solely in preparation for the next war against Israel. Today they outman us and outgun us thanks to American aid and training for the past thirty years.
Is the Egyptian Army a key determiner of the future governments of Egypt? Maybe, but we may not like what they determine.
We should remind them that one Jericho rocket with a nuclear warhead hitting the Aswan dam would put the whole Nile Valley under a 100 ft. of water. Hopefully when that time comes BB will be in the same place as Mubarak.