JCPA poll of Israelis: 76%:22% Full withdrawal will not bring peace

Poll- PA Can’t Be Trusted to Keep a Deal

By David Lev

A new poll by the Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs shows that the vast majority of Israelis are opposed to an Israeli withdrawal from Judea and Samaria. The poll, taken in November, showed that 76% of all Israelis (83% of Israeli Jews) do not believe that a withdrawal to the 1948 armistice lines will bring Israelis a secure peace.

The Palestinian Authority has repeatedly declared that it will not compromise on its demand that Israel withdraw from all land liberated in the 1967 Six Day War. In addition, the PA is demanding that Israel compensate it for its losses, and admit hundreds of thousands of Arabs to Israel, so they can return to homes their ‘ancestors’ abandoned in the 1948 War of Liberation.

The poll was conducted by Dr, Mina Tzemach of the Dahaf Institute, one of Israel’s most respected polling organizations. The poll was conducted among a scientifically-determined representative group of 500 Israelis, and was conducted during the height of media discussion on the upgrading of the PA delegation by the UN General Assembly in November.

One of the questions asked participants whether they would change the vote if it became clear that the party they had planned to support would agree to an Israeli withdrawal from the Jordan Valley and surrender Israeli sovereignty in Jerusalem. The large majority of all Israelis said they would – 53% if a party proposed leaving the Jordan Valley, 69% for Jerusalem. Among Israeli Jews, the figures were 59% and 79% respectively.

Perhaps most surprisingly, Israelis who said that they planned to vote for a left or left of center party are also largely against leaving Jerusalem and the Jordan Valley[=J&S]. Among those voters, 50% said that they would not vote for a party advocating withdrawal from the Jordan Valley, and 67% from Jerusalem.

The PA has consistently said that it would not accept any deal in which Israel did not fully withdraw from the Jordan Valley, and give the PA full sovereignty over the Old City of Jerusalem.

Participants were also asked if they trusted the PA, without Hamas, to observe any treaty it signs with Israel. Sixty seven percent of the general population and 75% of the Jewish population said they did not.

’67 Borders will not End Dispute”

According to this poll, A high percentage of left-to-center voters would vote right wing if their original party intended to make such significant land concessions.

Views of the Israeli Public on Israeli Security and Resolution of the
Arab-Israeli Conflict
(Survey No. 3 in a series)
Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs/Dahaf Institute Survey
December 2012

Would a withdrawal to the 1967 borders and the division of Jerusalem bring
about an end of the conflict?
Believe that it would: 22% (15% of Jews)
Believe that it would not: 76% (83% of Jews)

Main Points
– 76% of Israelis (83% of Jews) believe that a withdrawal to the 1967
lines and a division of Jerusalem would not bring about an end of the
conflict.
– 61% of the Jewish population believes that defensible borders are more
important than peace for assuring Israel’s security (up from 49% in 2005).
– 78% of Jews indicated they would change their vote if the party they
intended to support indicated that it was prepared to relinquish sovereignty
in east Jerusalem. 59% of Jews said the same about the Jordan Valley.

The findings of the present survey are based on representative-sample
responses of the adult population of Israel (N=500). The interviews were
conducted by telephone at the end of November 2012.

The main findings are presented below. Bear in mind the following points:
– For each question that was presented to the interviewees, a segmentation
of the answers is presented, excluding the percentage of interviewees who
did not respond to the question (these constitute the percentage that rounds
out the data to 100%).
– The numbers outside the parentheses represent the entire sample; the
numbers within the parentheses represent the Jewish sector.

1. Attitudes toward the issue of a peace agreement between Israel and the
Palestinians

a. Preconditions and perceptions of the chances of their being accepted

1) Recognition of Israel as a Jewish state
77% (79% of Jews): it is important that the Palestinians recognize Israel’s
right to exist as a
Jewish state.
Only 33% (27% of Jews) believe that this will happen.

2) Renouncing the Palestinian right of return
30% believe that the Palestinians will renounce it; 64% do not believe so.

3) Peace in stages or a comprehensive peace in one stage
Peace in stages: 34% (32% of Jews)
A comprehensive peace, gradual implementation: 46% (47% of Jews)
Neither: 10% (10% of Jews)

b. Assessments of the chances of reaching a peace agreement

1) Is the Palestinian leadership (Fatah and Hamas) capable of making binding
decisions on this issue?
Capable: 26% (17% of Jews)
Incapable: 68% (77% of Jews)

2) Would a withdrawal to the 1967 borders and the division of Jerusalem
bring about an end of the conflict?
Believe that it would: 22% (15% of Jews)
Believe that it would not: 76% (83% of Jews)

c. Can one rely on a peace agreement with the Palestinian Authority without
Hamas?
One can rely on it: 28% (21% of Jews)
One cannot rely on it: 67% (75% of Jews)

d. Perceived implications of the developments in Arab countries for the
chances for a permanent settlement with the Palestinians and for how long
such a settlement would last

1) Implications for the possibility of relying on a peace agreement
Strengthening of the belief that one could rely on it: 15% (7% of Jews)
No effect: 41% (44% of Jews)
Weakening of the belief: 37% (41% of Jews)

2) Effect of the Egyptian experience with changes in the demilitarization of
Sinai on belief in the demilitarization of the West Bank
Undermines: 51% (49% of Jews)
Does not undermine: 34% (35% of Jews)

3) Conclusions about a peace agreement in light of developments in Arab
countries
Intensify the effort to reach a peace agreement with the Palestinians: 21%
(16% of Jews)
No connection with what occurs in the Arab world: 25% (26% of Jews)
Territories vital to security should not be returned: 51% (55% of Jews)
2. Returning territories to the Palestinians in the framework of a permanent
settlement

a. What is preferable–defensible borders or a peace agreement?

1) Which is preferable for ensuring security–defensible borders or peace?
Peace: 36% (26% of Jews)
Defensible borders: 52% (61% of Jews)
Both: 6% (7% of Jews)
Impossible to ensure security: 3% (3% of Jews)

2) Importance of strategic depth
It has security value: 74% (72% of Jews)
It has no security value: 21% (23% of Jews)

3) Returning territories that have security value
Territories that overlook Ben-Gurion Airport Road
Can be returned 18% (11% of Jews
Should not be returned 73% (83% of Jews)
443 between Tel Aviv and Jerusalem
Can be returned 22% (16% of Jews)
Should not be returned 67% (75% of Jews)

4) The withdrawal from the Philadelphi Route between Egypt and Gaza (in
retrospect)
A wise step: 36% (29% of Jews)
An unwise step: 40% (44% of Jews)

b. Willingness to return territories

1) Withdrawal to the 1967 borders in return for a peace agreement

No mention of an end of the conflict
The territories should be returned 26% (18% of Jews)
The territories should not be returned 68% (76% of Jews)

All Arab states declare an end of the conflict
The territories should be returned 29% (19% of Jews)
The territories should not be returned 66% (76% of Jews)

2) Attitudes toward different territorial segments
Agree/Disagree
The Jordan Valley
31 (32)/65 (73)
Gush Etzion
30 (19)/62 (72)
Ariel and western Samaria
28 (17)/68 (79)
50% of the West Bank
42 (34)/52 (59)
95% of the West Bank
33 (22)/52 (62)
Withdrawal to the ’67 borders with minor adjustments
34 (24)/63 (72)
Rachel’s Tomb, the Machpela Cave, and the Western Wall in Israel’s hands
36 (28)/61 (68)
The Temple Mount under international rule, the Western Wall in Israel’s
hands
51 (47)/46 (49)
The Temple Mount under Palestinian rule, the Western Wall in Israel’s hands
33 (25)/64 (71)
All the East Jerusalem neighborhoods except the Old City
33 (27)/65 (71)

3. The status of the settlements

Leave the settlement blocs in Israel’s hands
Should 72% (75% of Jews) Should not 22% (18% of Jews)
Dismantle the settlements outside the large settlement blocs
Should 48% (43% of Jews) Should not 45% (50% of Jews)

4. Attitudes toward safe passage for Palestinians between Gaza and the West
Bank; preserving security and the rights of Jews if territories are returned
in a peace agreement
.
a. Can one rely on foreign forces in matters connected to security?
1) Preserving security after withdrawal from the Jordan Valley
One can rely on foreign forces: 26% (16% of Jews)
Security only in the hands of the IDF: 68% (78% of Jews)

2) Can one rely on foreign forces to prevent arms smuggling?
From Egypt to Gaza (relying on the Egyptian army)
One can rely on them 15% (9% of Jews)
One cannot rely on them 83% (90% of Jews)
From Jordan to the West Bank (relying on the Jordanian army)
One can rely on them 30% (23% of Jews)
One cannot rely on them 67% (74% of Jews)

b. The implications of a safe passage between Gaza and the West Bank
1) Weapons smuggling into Gaza
A concern: 85% (86% of Jews)
Not a concern: 14% (13%) of Jews

2) Can one rely on the Palestinian Authority to prevent the smuggling of
arms and terrorists into the West Bank?
Yes: 21% (14% of Jews)
No: 76% (73% of Jews)

3) Should the passage of goods be allowed between Gaza and the West Bank?
Yes: 46% (39% of Jews)
No: 46% (52% of Jews)

c. Ensuring freedom of worship for Jews
Can one rely on the Palestinians?
Yes 27% (19% of Jews)
No 68% (77% of Jews)
Can one rely on an international force?
Yes 53% (50% of Jews)
No 43% (46% of Jews)

5. Overall assessments of Operation Pillar of Defense
Israel won: 44% (36% of Jews)
Hamas won: 24% (28% of Jews)
Neither side won: 24% (28% of Jews)

6. How should Israel react to the Palestinians’ upgrade to a non-member
state at the UN?
Not react: 30%
Take measures, but not annexation of territories: 24%
Take unspecified steps: 6%
Annex territories: 22%
Don’t know: 18%

7. Israeli responses to the nuclear issue
a. The effect of sanctions on Iran
They will stop Iran’s nuclear-weapons development: 27% (21% of Jews)
They will not stop Iran’s nuclear-weapons development: 68% (75% of Jews)

b. Can one rely on the United States?
1) In general
One can rely on it: 39% (42% of Jews)
Israel has to defend itself: 57% (54% of Jews)

2) To prevent Iran from obtaining a nuclear capability
One can rely on the U.S.: 39% (31% of Jews)
One cannot rely on the U.S.: 53% (60% of Jews)

c. An Israeli attack on Iran’s nuclear sites

1) Will such an attack succeed in preventing Iran from developing nuclear
weapons?
It will succeed: 21% (16% of Jews)
It will only succeed to delay the program: 49% (53% of Jews)
It will not have an effect: 23% (24% of Jews)

2) Are you for or against an Israeli attack?
For: 53% (53% of Jews)
Against: 37% (36% of Jews)

d. Fears of Iran attacking Israel with nuclear weapons

1) Does the West have the necessary means to deter Iran?
Yes: 55% (53% of Jews)
No: 39% (41% of Jews)

8. The weight of security issues on voting intentions

a. The survey gauged the level of influence of different issues on voting
intentions. Below is a list of the issues in order of the percentage of
interviewees who chose the issue as having the most influence on their
decision about which party to vote for.

Security policy
29% (30%)
The territorial issue (withdrawal to ’67 borders)
9% (8%)
Economic and social issues
26% (26%)
The person who heads the party
11% (11%)
The status of religion and state
10% (12%)
The party’s chances of joining the government
2% (2%)
The party’s chances of forming the government
2% (1%)
The makeup of the list of candidates
1% (1%)
The number of women on the list
1% (–)

** At the time the survey was conducted, Tzipi Livni had not yet announced
her intention to run in the elections. Hence, the data does not include her
Hatnuah party.

b. A considerable percentage of the interviewees declare that they will
change their vote if the party they intend to vote for expresses willingness
to return territories in the Jordan Valley (53%) or relinquish sovereignty
in east Jerusalem (69%). For Jews, the corresponding percentages are 59% and
78%.