The optimistic approach is a realistic one. Israel will destroy Hamas, preserve its credibility as an ally of Sunni states in their conflict with Iran, and enable a new Middle East.
IDF forces in the tunnel IDF spokesman
Victory in a war requires neutralizing the enemy. The World heretofore has not permitted an Israel victory. The fact that Israel has been prevented from ever winning a war (see below) has encouraged its enemies to attack Israel repeatedly. Ending wars with armistices, ceasefires, and pauses assures that the next war will be around the corner.
This time almost all of Israel understands that it must finally win a war. Israel cannot allow Hamas to survive and retain control of Gaza. A minority in Israel has still not learned from past failures. Demonstrators in the streets of Tel Aviv seek to topple the current government (using the unfortunate hostage families as a ruse) and allow Hamas to launch another future massacre. But that noisy and committed minority shall fail.
Israel now has the opportunity to win!
-Russia is embroiled in the Ukraine conflict and concerned with a potential expanded NATO involvement.
-The UN is weaker than ever and has minimal influence preventing multiple conflicts around the world.
-And the US is divided in selecting a successor to President Biden.
-All Abraham Accord signators, as well as Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Jordan, other oil-producing Gulf Arab states and other potential allies of Israel understand that Israel’s victory will usher in a “new Middle East”. They know that another “permanent” ceasefire will allow Hamas to survive and claim a spectacular victory. Each of these countries is gravely concerned that the success of Hamas, an arm of the Moslem Brotherhood, will destabilize the region.
Hamas presence in Rafah, Khan Younis, and Gaza City is ending. At least 22 of the 24 Hamas brigades have been destroyed. Israel controls the Philadelphi corridor and Rafiah thereby eliminating the smuggling of arms and material from Egypt. Gaza tunnels are being destroyed. Leaders of Hamas have been terminated. A delusional Sinwar, with the help of Egypt and Qatar and a faltering US President and State Department, is using the remains of Israeli hostages as bargaining chips. He demands that Israel repeat its past blunders and withdraw. He believes, that as in the past, Israel would withdraw entirely from Gaza, release terrorists from Israeli jails, and rebuild Gaza.
Though Israel dutifully still sends Mossad and other representatives to Qatar and Cairo, to negotiate a ceasefire and hostage return, it is doubtful that Sinwar will take the only sensible and humanitarian option available- total surrender. He will most likely continue to make insane demands.
If there is an interim hostage exchange deal, it will not impede Israel’s elimination of Hamas. Hamas and Islamic Jihad will continue to violate any agreement. The promises of past Israeli leaders, “If one bullet or rocket is fired from Gaza, Israel will respond dramatically” will finally be implemented. In any event, Israeli military pressure is the only way to force either a sensible deal or the rescue of the remaining Israeli hostages.
Israel has a clear irreversible objective: Total Victory.
Israel’s acceptance of five very generous previous cease-fire deals with Hamas convinced Hamas that there was no long-term downside to attacking Israel. Israel will ignore the hysteria and blind uninformed worldwide support for Hamas and demands for another ceasefire. This time there will be victory and no “permanent” cease-fire. Prime Minister Netanyahu and his government are committed to finally winning a war and destroying the Hamas enemy.
Sinwar, after losing most of his Hamas partners and staff is now the military and political Hamas autocrat. He is hiding deep in some tunnel. He finally realizes he will not succeed and is begging for safe passage out of Gaza. It will not happen. Israel learned the lesson of sending Arafat to Tunisia. Sinwar’s last hope is to trigger a regional war.
But it won’t happen! Iran and its proxies will be shocked to see that Israel has finally won a war. They will understand that if they initiate a broad conflict, Israel will not be deterred from finally destroying them. They understand the risk that Israel will respond with all the weapons at its disposal. Lebanon will suffer indescribably. Iran’s oil production and its Kharg Island delivery terminals will be destroyed. Iran’s economic collapse could lead to regime change and the collapse of Iran’s nuclear program. The people of Iran will finally be freed from the dictatorial and horrible Ayatollahs.
Netanyahu compared the future situation in Gaza to the Allies’ occupation of Germany and Japan after their surrender to end World War II. Netanyahu said, “Once we defeat Hamas, we have to make sure that there’s no new Hamas, no resurgence of terrorism, and right now the only force that can secure that is Israel.”
Abu Mazan and the Palestinian Authority want to visit Gaza. They hope to take over Gaza after the defeat of Hamas. It will not happen. We remember that they broadcast that the October 7th massacre was justified and that a similar attack could be expected in Judea and Samaria. The myth that the PA is Israel’s security partner in Judea and Samaria has been exposed.
Little has changed over the past 76 years. But this time, Israel is finally about to win a war! The World is demanding a ceasefire, Israel’s withdrawal from the Egyptian smuggling routes, complete withdrawal from Gaza, and the return of all Gazans to a rebuilt Gaza Strip. All in the hope that Hamas will release a few hostages dead or alive.
Israel has finally learned a lesson from past blunders. Let us recall.
The 1947-48 War of Independence ended in ceasefire agreements with Green Lines, Blue Lines, and No Lines. The 1956 Operation Kadesh ended when Israel was forced to withdraw from the Sinai Peninsula and the Gaza Strip. The Six-day War in 1967 ended when a United Nations-brokered ceasefire took effect before Israel was allowed to complete its spectacular victory. Israel was rewarded with the three No’s of Khartoum and the UN branding of Yehuda and Shomron as “Disputed (actually they said the false “occupied”) Territories”. The October 1973 Yom Kippur War ended when the world saved Egypt’s Israel-encircled Third Army within 100 kilometers (62 miles) of Cairo and imposed a ceasefire. The World could not allow the Jewish State to be victorious.
In the first Lebanon War, Israel drove the PLO out of southern Lebanon. But under international pressure, Arafat and the PLO escaped to Tunisia. Israel withdrew in 1985 to Southern Lebanon and ultimately under Ehud Barak abandoned the SLA and withdrew entirely. No victory. With Tzipi Livni as clueless foreign minister, Israel accepted that a hopeless UNIFIL force was to guarantee the peace. Israel’s withdrawal empowered Hezbollah and today we see the consequences.
There have been 5 Gaza/Israel Wars. Each ended with ceasefires mediated and imposed on Israel by Egypt and the United States. No victories. Each time, Hamas was thrown a ceasefire lifeline to initiate another attack. The last ceasefire ended on October 7. Each ceasefire allowed Hamas to expand its rocket arsenal and military armaments, build tunnels, and prepare and train for the Black October catastrophe.
In the past, threats of Arab oil boycotts, global anti-Zionism/antisemitism, and the shock of a powerful resurgent Jewish State successfully fighting its enemies denied Israeli victories. This time Israel will be victorious and eliminate Hamas and free the abducted hostages.
Only then can the vision of a New Middle East be realized.
Dr. Michael Wise is a founder and investor in numerous technology companies. He is a graduate of YU and holds a PhD .in Theoretical Physics from Brandeis U., is the author of Israel demography study (BESA).and has published numerous articles about Israel sovereignty and demographics in Judea and Samaria. mlwise@gmail.com
This article demonstrate erudite understanding of what it takes to safely secure the State of Israel and as a continuum the Jewish people worldwide. I would like to point out that the views expressed correlate completely with the Israel Defense and Security Forum (IDSF) led by Brigadier General Amir Avivi. There is no alternative to achieving absolute victory.
For Israel to be victorious, the army needs to change its leadership. The generals who destroyed the army and allowed October 7 must leave.
The key to achieving this victory is to realize that there is no compromise with militant Islam. The foolish denial of reality by the left wing – that everyone is basically good (except maybe “colonial” Israel) and that Gazans are just folks – that delusion has to die, and people pushing it should be soundly mocked and pushed back instead of passivley tolerated.
It takes a scientist to understand and spell out the real truth of these political outcomes.
This article has to be distributed everywhere! Our greatest wish is that it turns out to be true!!