A strike on Iran is difficult, daring and doable

By the \Editor of Israel Hayom
[..]
Tough decisions under uncertain conditions

Leadership is manifested in one’s ability to make difficult decisions in the midst of uncertain circumstances and ambiguity. Such decisions have been made in Israel in the past. In 1948, then Prime Minister David Ben-Gurion decided to declare the establishment of the state despite many warnings of imminent Arab military invasions. In 1967, Israel’s leadership decided to go to war – which later became known as the Six-Day War – despite the stranglehold placed on the country courtesy of the Egyptian, Syrian and Jordanian armies. In 1981, then Prime Minister Menachem Begin decided to strike Iraq’s nuclear plant in Osirak, despite the fact that almost every expert and military commander advised him against doing so. Gambles? “Leadership is sometimes left with no choice but to take critical decisions which are essentially ‘fuzzy gambles’ for the whole pot, in that there may be no way of calculating the likelihood of success,” Professor Yehezkel Dror wrote this week. “If the number of those killed in a future war will be far greater than the number of those killed in a war today, it is imperative to act today.”

Had Allied forces invaded the Rheine district in 1936 to block one of Hitler’s earliest moves, many would have probably perished in the ensuing battles. But the price would have been relatively miniscule compared with the price they were forced to pay three years later. It is not pleasant to “think about the unthinkable” as strategist and author Herman Kahn titled his classic book, but the numbers issue is indeed a significant calculation. An Iranian nuclear bomb may cause tremendous damage to Israel. “Israel is a single-bomb country,” former Iranian President Ali Rafsanjani once said, referring to the possibility of destroying Israel with just one nuclear bomb. But if Iran’s nuclear program is dealt a strong blow or completely destroyed, Iran’s second-strike capability is limited. According to reports, they have only a few hundred surface-to-surface ballistic missiles that can reach Israel. Some of their missiles will be destroyed in an aerial assault. Others will encounter the Arrow anti-missile defense system, which is no less efficient than the Iron Dome. Only a few Iranian missiles will reach their destination, similar to Saddam Hussein’s Scud missiles launched against Israel during the First Gulf War. Israel was struck by 40 missiles during that war, but the damage was bearable.

Will Hezbollah and Hamas – Iran’s forward bases – join the war and launch 40 or 50 thousand rockets at their Zionist enemy? Not for certain. They know they have something to lose in doing so – their rule and their lives. And in any case we must take into consideration that if their intention is to retaliate if Israel decides to attack Iran, they may also do so if it is the U.S. who decides to attack Iran. In 1991, Israel did not join the coalition of forces that invaded Iraq, even though Saddam’s missiles landed in our country. As Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said in the Knesset on Wednesday, we can only imagine the brazenness of the terrorist groups if their patron (Iran) covers them with a nuclear umbrella. We can assume that once the Iranian issue is resolved, Hezbollah and Hamas will be weakened.

It would be very convenient for all of us if the Iranian crisis just disappears with a wave of a magic wand. But the problem is not going anywhere and is only getting worse each day. That is why we must solve it. And we can solve it. Some people say an attack on Iran will “set the Middle East ablaze.” Others say an attack on Iran would shock the Middle East, but after an initial spike in oil prices, will not trigger a dramatic change. It would simply solve the problem, they say, just as the bombing of the Iraqi nuclear plant destroyed Iraq’s nuclear program once and for all. If it took Iran 20 years to get to where they are today in their nuclear program, who is to say that they will recover from a military strike in a year or two?

We should never underestimate the capabilities of Israel’s defense establishment, the Israel Defense Forces, and the Israel Air Force. We should not be arrogant either. We paid a price for our arrogance in the Yom Kippur War, and in other military campaigns as well. But we must also not be cowards. Passivity can also exact a heavy price. A combination of means, methods and motivation is a winning formula. The Israel Air Force has already done the impossible, more than once. A New York Times report two weeks ago emphasized the complexity of an attack on Iran. The report mentioned the distance, the anti-aircraft batteries and the large number of targets we would have to face. “They would need to send 100 planes,” the writer warned. But someone forgot that in World War II some operations involved 1,000 planes (according to reports, Israel does not have that many planes …). Since then, though, the technologies in the aircraft themselves, in navigation, electronic warfare, laser-guided weapons launched at targets from a distance, and pilotless aircraft have been able to compensate for a lack in quantity.

And above all, there is motivation. People my age will not forget the feeling we had on the eve of the Six-Day War, when everyone felt that we were on the brink of our greatest challenge, and we all worked together as one and faced the danger together. We will also not forget the Yom Kippur War, when after the sirens sounded we all ran home from the synagogues, filling the streets with human waves, and hurrying to put on our army boots and uniforms. Who can forget the feeling we had in 1976 when we heard of the successful mission in Entebbe? And even this past week, there was no fear or trauma in the shelters in the south. There were only reporters running around trying to get someone to say “Yes, for sure, it’s frightening. We can’t live like this any longer.”

Difficult, daring and doable

There is a huge difference between the recent “bout” we experienced with Islamic Jihad in Gaza and a possible strike on Iran. This wasn’t a “test-run” for a war with Iran. But it did prove that we are capable of initiating a justified campaign with the aim of thwarting terrorist activity and preventing massive attacks, and preparing ourselves properly for the inevitable retaliation. We can destroy most of the rockets and missiles that will be launched against us. We can also destroy most enemy targets with precision strikes. Our systems have proven that they work together as a system should, with one part backing up the other. Someone in the media called it “The most difficult confrontation we have had since Operation Cast Lead.” Excuse me? As of Wednesday, no Israeli was killed, and there was minimal damage to homes and properties. On the other side, 20 terrorists were killed, few citizens were injured, and very little damage was reported.

Iran is a different story, though, of more immense proportions. If there is to be a strike on Iran, no amateur ‘armchair strategist’ will be running the operation. Only our very best people will be involved in conducting the strike. Only the cream of the crop. Our finest sons and daughters. Nearly 70 years after the Holocaust, these are state of Israel’s spearheads. With the Americans or without them, it will be difficult; it will be daring; but it is doable.

Amos Regev is Editor-in-Chief of Israel Hayom.