Arlene Kushner | Arlene from Israel | January 13, 2025
Fervently did I hope to be able to do a “good news” posting – tracking progress we are making in several quarters. There is some good news, but as I write this, I feel considerable unease, or, more honestly put, a great heavyheartedness.
We may be, it seems, on the cusp of a completed hostage deal – at least this is the way it is being reported by several media sources. We are being told that at this point that we are closer than we have been since the only successful deal to date, in November 2023, when some 40 Israeli hostages were released in three separate exchanges, along with other captives, Thai, etc.
Because of the imminence of the deal, I have tabled what I was working on and want to put this out.
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I doubt that there is anyone in Israel who does not want to see the hostages come home. They are living (those who are still alive) in horrific conditions. It’s a heartbreak, an unresolved source of grief.
Liri Albag, X @bringhomenow
Similarly, I doubt there is anyone who does not feel for the families, who live in horrendous pain – fearing the worst about their loved ones in captivity.
The Guardian
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And yet, there is a huge “But…!!”
Because the terms that are being reported – admittedly which may not be fully accurate – are quite simply unacceptable to me, and to many, many others.
[] One huge concern is the number of terrorists in our prisons with blood on their hands who would be among those released in this deal. We’re talking some big-time terrorists, some percentage of which would be recidivist – they would resume their lives of terror. The number of terrorists to be released is insane if reports are accurate: more than 3,000 (not all with life sentences), presumably in return for release of all hostages, living and dead – roughly 100.
This means we would be trading the lives of future victims of terror attacks that would be perpetrated by those released in exchange for the lives of the current hostages. We don’t know who those future victims would be – they are not, cannot be, vivid in our imagination, in the way that the current hostages are. But if the number of terrorists to be released according to media reports is even close to correct, this means a great likelihood that well more than the number of hostages to be saved now would be killed in terror attacks going forward.
This, I would suggest, is a situation we do not have the right to agree to.
[] We went into the war after October 7 because it was an existential war that had to be won. But the terms of the current deal suggest that we will not have won, that we will have agreed to pull back in Gaza in a manner that makes it more likely that Hamas can reactivate. There are reports that Yahya Sinwar’s brother, Mohammed, is recruiting new troops. A constant, active, unhindered IDF presence in Gaza remains a necessity. There is no clarity at this point regarding precisely what would be required of the IDF as part of this deal, but it is clear that some pullback would be called for. The issue of the Philadelphi Corridor looms large, but it is not only that. This is greatly worrisome.
[] A model would be set with this deal that encourages other terrorist entities to follow the path of Hamas. They would see that hostages are a valuable military asset, and that Israel is not invincible. Our deterrence would be reduced.
[] This would be to a disservice to the more than 800 brave soldiers who have given their lives to protect Israel in a war that was considered an existential necessity. The pain of their families would be enormous, as they would then ask why their loved ones had to die. This pain would be different from the grief of having lost them that is mitigated by pride at their bravery and an understanding that they gave of themselves for the good of the nation.
As it is, another five soldiers, Staff Sergeant Yahav Hadar, Staff Sergeant Yoav Feffer, Staff Sergeant Guy Karmiel, Staff Sergeant Aviel Wiseman, and Captain Yair Yakov Shushan have now fallen in battle in Gaza.
Another eight soldiers were severely injured in the same incident
https://www.israelnationalnews.com/news/402223
Courtesy
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The Gevura Forum, consisting of families of soldiers who have fallen in battle, is speaking out against the deal. This forum, along with the Tikva Forum, consisting of some families of those whose relatives are hostages, are holding a demonstration against the deal in Jerusalem tonight (Monday).
[] As media reports represent the deal, all hostages and bodies will not be released at once, but in stages. The very legitimate question is being asked as to what happens to those who have not yet been released, if the deal falls apart. The assumption is that those still held by Hamas would be lost to Israel forever. The demand should be for release of all at the same time.
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Pressure on Netanyahu right now – in addition to the pressure from families of the hostages and their supporters – is coming from both Biden and Trump.
Biden told Netanyahu that there was an “immediate need” for a deal.
This is hardly a surprise, as Biden would love to see this as part of his legacy as president.
Patrick Semansky/AP
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But Trump? “There will be hell to pay if Hamas does not release those hostages before I am in office” Trump?
Yes, that Trump.
It seems that when Netanyahu visited Trump in his Florida Mar-a-Lago resort last July, the presidential candidate (who had not yet won reelection) said that he wanted the war finished before he returned to office, if he wins the election.
What are his tough words to Hamas worth, if he wants it finished before he would be required to act on them? Many of us have been speculating as to what he had in mind for Hamas, but it turns out that he had nothing in mind, he was sounding off.
Disappointing, to say the least.
“US President-elect Donald Trump’s Mideast envoy Steve Witkoff held a ‘tense’ meeting with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Saturday during which the former leaned hard on the Israeli premier to accept compromises necessary to secure a hostage deal by the January 20 US presidential inauguration, two officials familiar with the matter tell The Times of Israel. (Emphasis added)
“Witkoff’s pressure on Netanyahu appears to have had an effect, with the two officials familiar with the negotiations saying that key gaps were filled in the talks over the weekend.”
Prime Minister’s Office Spokesperson
Many of us had visions of Trump releasing weaponry that Biden had held back, which would enable us to finish the war more quickly.
But this? This is not an auspicious beginning to our relationship with the new US administration.
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What is on my mind first, however, is our prime minister. Netanyahu demonstrated a superb ability to buck Biden’s demands when he saw them as contrary to Israel’s interests – as with regard to going into Rafah. And time and again I congratulated him for this.
Will he now demonstrate the same ability in his relationship with Trump? Or will he be so eager to please Trump that he will now actually cave more readily?
Is this perhaps the key question of the day, at the heart of the emerging hostage deal?
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This is what Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich (Chair, Religious Zionists) had to say about the deal:
“The emerging deal is a catastrophe for the national security of the State of Israel. We will not be part of a surrender deal that includes the release of arch-terrorists, halting the war, undermining the achievements that were secured with many lives lost, and abandoning numerous hostages.” (Emphasis added)
Sky News
Additionally, ten coalition lawmakers have signed a letter expressing their opposition to a potential hostage-ceasefire deal.
“The signatories calling a potential agreement an ‘immoral step’ include seven members of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud party.
“The letter urges the premier to ‘not cross the most basic moral lines, do not endanger Israel’s security.’”
Those from Likud who signed are Amit Halevi, Hanoch Milwidsky, Moshe Saada, Tsega Melaku, Avihai Boaron, Dan Illouz and Moshe Pessal. From Otzma Yehudit, Limor Son Har-Melech and Yitzhak Kroizer, and from Religious Zionists, Simcha Rothman.
I am assuming Smotrich did not sign because he made his position clear in public venues. As to Itamar Ben Gvir (Chair, Otzma Yehudit) – who is adamantly opposed – he is scheduled to have a meeting on the subject with the premier.
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There are news reports coming out as I write this posting indicating that Israel has agreed in broad terms and “it’s up to Hamas.”
But there are also reports that Netanyahu is still going to be meeting with security officials to finalize thoughts on the matter.
If, at all, Israel has agreed “in broad terms,” this would still leave the details to be set – and we know where the devil is with regard to those details. It might be that in the end Israel is agreeable in principle but will establish safeguards that Hamas will find unacceptable.
Let us pray.
According to Reuters, “a round of Gaza ceasefire talks will be held in Doha Tuesday morning to finalize remaining details related to the deal.” (Emphasis added)
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Please, pray with a full heart…
[] for the safety of the Jewish People everywhere,
[] for the continued strength and courage of Israel’s leaders as they make the hard decisions,
[] for the safety of our soldiers in battle as they fight a righteous war,
[] and for the rescue of the hostages.
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©Arlene Kushner. This material is produced by independent journalist Arlene Kushner. Permission is granted for it to be reproduced only with proper attribution.
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