Peloni: It will be revealing to see if the incoming Trump administration will be mesmerized by the snake charming attempt of the Mullahs to forestall their own destruction with this latest attempted hudna. Having displayed Iran’s assets as being paper limbs extending from a paper octopus, it would be an enormous mistake to grant the Mullahs the opportunity to rebuild and restructure their onslaught on both Israel and the West after Israel alone has brought them to the point of utter destruction. It is time to eliminate this menace, and thereby free Israel and the West of this mounting threat, while also freeing the people of both Iran and Lebanon from the enslavement in which they have been left shackled for the past 40yrs.
As Iran faces domestic and foreign challenges, its bellicose rhetoric on the United States and Israel has given way to signs that it wants less confrontation.
By Farnaz Fassihi | NYT | November 28, 2024
A billboard in Tehran showing Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, and his predecessor, Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini.Credit…Arash Khamooshi for The New York Times
In mid-November, Iran dispatched a top official to Beirut to urge Hezbollah to accept a cease-fire with Israel. Around the same time, Iran’s U.N. ambassador met with Elon Musk, an overture to President-elect Donald J. Trump’s inner circle. And on Friday, it will hold talks in Geneva with European countries on a range of issues, including its nuclear program.
All this recent diplomacy marks a sharp change in tone from late October, when Iran was preparing to launch a large retaliatory attack on Israel, with a deputy commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps warning, “We have never left an aggression unanswered in 40 years.”
Iran’s swing from tough talk to a more conciliatory tone in just a few weeks’ time has its roots in developments at home and abroad.
Five Iranian officials, one of them a Revolutionary Guards member, and two former officials said the decision to recalibrate was prompted by Mr. Trump winning the Nov. 5 election, with concerns about an unpredictable leader who, in his first term, pursued a policy of “maximum pressure” on Iran.
But it was also driven by Israel’s decimation in Lebanon of Hezbollah — the closest and most important of Iran’s militant allies — and by economic crises at home, where the currency has dropped steadily against the dollar and an energy shortage looms as winter approaches.
Taken together, these challenges forced Iran to recalibrate its approach, to one of defusing tensions, the current Iranian officials familiar with the planning said. They asked for anonymity because they were not authorized to speak publicly, which could put them in danger.
They said Iran suspended plans to strike Israel following Mr. Trump’s election because it did not want to exacerbate tensions with the incoming administration, which was already lining up cabinet nominees who were hostile to Iran and staunch supporters of Israel. Mr. Trump’s stated plans to end the wars in the Middle East and Ukraine, however, appealed to Iran, the officials said.
Before the U.S. election was even held, Iran sent word to the Biden administration that, contrary to claims by some American intelligence officials, it was not plotting to assassinate Mr. Trump. Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said on Wednesday that Iran welcomed the truce between Hezbollah and Israel, adding that “Tehran maintains its right to respond to Israel’s airstrikes on Iran last month, but it will take into consideration regional developments such as the cease-fire in Lebanon.”
@dfreuveni
Perhaps, but keep this in mind – the main objective which Trump has with Iran is their nuclear program. So is it conceivable that he would see the Mullahs fall and have that program secreted to some unknown power structure who would take over in place of the Mullahs? I think the answer here is no, he wouldn’t, which is why I am not convinced that we are dreaming again. But time will tell.
We’re back to dreaming again:)
@dreuveni
What is needed by Israel at this moment is not US carpet bombing Iran’s nuclear infrastructure. As has been referenced in a recent interview by the IDSF, bombing such sites could result in the release of nuclear material which would be contrary to all involved. Instead, what is needed from the US is at a minimum for Israel to act to destabilize the regime by leaving Israel unrestrained in its pursuit of felling the Mullahs from power. Iran is vulnerable, and it would only require that Israel be allowed to exploit that vulnerability in pursuit of destabilizing the current regime, while also supporting whatever faction among the many spare parts of Iran’s opposition which might come next – hopefully it will be one which is pro-Israel and pro-Western, but we should not be entirely certain that when the dust subsides, that this will be the case…which raises the following point.
It has always been my opinion, and now stipulated by greater expertise in a recent report, that should the Mullahs fall from power, whoever comes next to rule Iran would still covet Khamenei’s nuclear program for themselves. Hence, it would be important for either the US or Israel to prevent this from taking place. No doubt, the US might be tempted to take on this role themselves, but should they fail to do so, it would be important to allow or support Israel to complete this task, to the degree they are able to achieve it.
In any event, leaving Israel free to wreak havoc on Iran would be the most basic requirement needed from Trump in the coming months, and the reality is that the Mullahs are quite aware of this fact, which is why they are trying to snake charm Trump into preventing Israel from doing so with their faux entreaties of conciliatory gestures towards Trump, ironically after having recently tried to kill him.
@peloni: You are right in a bunch of things, but the way forward is not to expect Trump and his new administration to carpet bomb Iran of even just its nuclear infrastructure. The only way that could happen is the Iranians were so irrational as to directly attack the USA. If Israel wants that done, she is, as before, alone in this endeavor.
Trump has recognized that Iran now needs to reconsider its options, but its objective, to eliminate Israel and USA are still on their table. The question is if he can find a deal with Iran that will make them turn their efforts into something more beneficial like improving the situation of the Iranian people, getting their girls and women educated and improving relations with their neighbors, including Israel.