Likud bloc wins most seats in new poll but 3 short of a majority

The Channel 14 poll contradicted polls of the other major Israeli TV channels three weeks ago, which showed the opposition leading by a wide margin.

JNS   APRIL 1/24

A Likud-led right-wing bloc will again win the most Knesset seats if elections were held today, according to a survey published on Sunday and conducted by Direct Polls Institute for Channel 14.

Likud and its constellation parties would win 58 Knesset seats against a center-left coalition (52) and Arab parties (10).

The biggest change from the last poll was to Gideon Sa’ar and his New Hope Party, which would not pass the 3.25% electoral threshold, which brings with it 4 Knesset seats.

This contrasts with the previous Channel 14 poll, which had Sa’ar at six Knesset seats. Sa’ar broke from Benny Gantz’s National Unity faction on March 12.

According to the new survey, the breakdown of mandates would be as follows.

Right-wing bloc:

Likud – 24
Shas – 10
Otzma Yehudit – 10
United Torah Judaism – 8
Religious Zionism – 6

Total: 58 mandates

Left-wing bloc:

Blue and White – 22
Yesh Atid – 13
Israel Beiteinu – 8
Labor – 5
Meretz – 4

Total: 52 mandates

Arab parties:

Ra’am (United Arab List) – 6
Hadash-Ta’al – 4

Total: 10 mandates

The Channel 14 poll results contrast sharply with polls conducted by Channels 11, 12 and 13 taken about three weeks ago to survey the impact of Sa’ar’s split from Gantz on the political map.

On March 13, Channel 11 found the opposition parties garnering 64 seats with the current coalition winning only 46.

On March 12, Channel 12 put the opposition at 74 seats vs. the coalition’s 46.

On March 13, Channel 13 declared that the opposition parties would win 70 seats vs. the Netanyahu coalition’s 46.

In all three cases, the Arab parties were included in the opposition numbers.

Regarding a separate question asked by Channel 14 pollsters as to whether the IDF needs to enter the city of Rafah in the Gaza Strip to clear out the remaining Hamas battalions even if it means a clash with the United States, which opposes such a move, those surveyed supported a ground incursion, 64% to 32%. Four percent held no position.