T. Belman. Jafaj saw it coming but not exactly. Abed Amaala tweeted “Reviewing Iran’s behavior in the region within two months for the return of ambassadors and the normalization of diplomatic relations. This condition in the Saudi-Iranian reconciliation has no meaning on the ground of political reality. Will Iran, which occupies 4 Arab capitals, withdraw from it within two months? Iran’s militias are supposed to withdraw from Arab capitals first, and then establish diplomatic relations with them.“
Jafaj Intelligence December 12, 2022
1. Summary: JaFaJ has learned that Chinese President Xi Jinping has asked the Saudi Crown Prince Mohammad Bin Salman (MBS) to consider reconciliation with Iran, noting that China could serve as a mediator. Nonetheless, MBS did not seem to be thrilled and requested evidence of Iran’s change in behavior. China has a lot of vested interest in Iran, with four undisclosed Chinese military locations in Iran, including a military base on Kish Island in the Persian Gulf and another one on the Island of Salkah. Salkah is situated near the United Arab Emirates. Hence, China’s recent warmth towards Arab Gulf states is a loss for the Iranian Government because enhanced ties between Beijing and Arab states may come at the expense of Iran’s growing ties with China.
2. JaFaJ has learned from a Gulf State intelligence source that Chinese President Xi Jinping has asked the Government of Saudi Arabia (GSA) to “re-consider reconciliation with Iran.” This reportedly came during President Jinping’s visit to Saudi Arabia last week. During the visit, President Jinping attended the Saudi-Chinese summit, the Arab-Chinese summit and a summit between China and the head of Arab Gulf States.
3. According to sources, President Jinping conveyed a message of peace on behalf of Iran to the Saudi Crown Prince Muhammad Bin Salaman (MBS). The Chinese President reportedly spoke with MBS and confirmed that Iran would consider serious concessions in exchange for peace with Saudi Arabia. The source added that China was willing to broker peace between the parties. According to JaFaJ intelligence sources, MBS responded by saying that “Saudi Arabia had never sought aggression towards anyone.” The source added that MBS said “he would like to see Iran’s behavior change first before reconsidering his country’s position on Iran.”
China Has a Sizable Military Base in Iran
———————————————————–
4. It isn’t clear if China is determined to push for peace between Saudi Arabia and Iran. Nonetheless, China clearly has a vested interest in Iran, especially since Iran is one of China’s key oil supplier. Additionally, cooperates with China carries out military and intelligence operations with Iran. Their cooperation started when President Jinping visited Iran in 2015. Today, China carries out military operations through the Kish Island Airport, a facility that they have leased from the Iranian Government for 25-years. Additionally, they have three undisclosed military bases on Iranian soil across the Persian Gulf, one of which is on the Island of Salkah, close to the United Arab Emirates.
5. Saudi Arabia is not likely to change its position on Iranian policies anytime soon. Still, with China making a historical breakthrough in the Middle East region in general, and Saudi Arabia in particular, they may be able to somewhat control Iran’s aggressive behaviour. Nonetheless, the Saudis are unlikely to buy any promises from Iran, regardless of any potential guarantor Iran may bring. At the same time, China’s policies of seeking expanded and enhanced ties with Saudi Arabia, as the leader of Arab Gulf States, is a huge loss to the Iranian Government. This is especially true because the Gulf States are economically and politically warming up to China, which in the long run, may wind up making Iran less relevant to Chinese interests.
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/03/15/world/europe/hungary-china-battery-plant.html?unlocked_article_code=9Mu31GsCEaLF-_okVXQ2ukWYSZoP5_MfAaIj32M93-IkgZnlPpBYiXfUkyRjM-2ZLlmCoYVxm8U3RCSkJYhhQHEFRIL5pAfjxjXOq2C9NIT9c3Eb7qsFo26WVUPB4miA_n5Ni90n1V1MiuRNcqOKDvVhdG1DLH_shQolA_feK_OdYB72rBH02qwpvo6QFYbLbVeaodmKejV1Z5FIwxK9TxUQNh26k-shL_muinl1KEkbFac_Ly_pzBRFjssv1UYSUgPDECAmpBAqdloGmztBAIR5XsI5l-A6ZFolMxNyxjFmNFC_rS5hsQGJsMBbNfwMsoItjRw9Q8sPCNHpSISj8ac1iRJSY9BAexA&smid=url-share