Tehran’s proxies will keep attacking as long as they sense U.S. weakness.
It’s about time. Finally, after multiple attacks on U.S. bases and allies, President Trump approved a military response against Iranian-allied militias in Iraq and Syria on the weekend. Mr. Trump has to be prepared to do more if the Iranians decide to escalate.
The Pentagon said U.S. F-15E fighters carried out the strikes on five targets occupied by Kataib Hezbollah, a Shiite militia allied with and armed by Iran. “Iran and their KH proxy forces must cease their attacks on U.S. and coalition forces, and respect Iraq’s sovereignty, to prevent additional defensive actions by U.S. forces,” Pentagon spokesman Jonathan Hoffman said.
Kataib Hezbollah is a proxy arm of Iranian general Qasem Soleimani’s Quds Force and would not have acted against U.S. forces without his approval. The group is responsible for 11 rocket attacks in two months on bases where American soldiers were present. A Kataib Hezbollah attack on Friday on an Iraqi base near Kirkuk killed a U.S. contractor and wounded four American troops.
Had Mr. Trump not responded to these U.S. casualties, he would have invited even more attacks. Mr. Trump’s reluctance to use force in response to previous Iranian attacks is one reason Gen. Soleimani may feel he can get away with more attacks.
Last June Mr. Trump stunned his own advisers when he called off a U.S. retaliatory strike on Iran at the last minute after Iran shot down a U.S. drone. Mr. Trump also declined to act after Iran’s brazen September attack on Saudi oil facilities.
Mr. Trump’s frequent statements that he wants to withdraw from Syria, and from “forever wars,” are also an invitation to adversaries to impose casualties that might cause the President to follow through on his isolationist impulses.
This danger is likely to increase in an election year in several theaters where adversaries may test Mr. Trump’s resolve. Iran is feeling the pressure of U.S. sanctions and may believe that attacking Americans will coax the President to ease the pressure. North Korea’s Kim Jong Un has signaled that he may launch a New Year’s test of a missile capable of reaching America. Russia and China don’t want a direct military confrontation but are working against U.S. interests whenever they think they can get away with it.
The strikes in Iraq and Syria carry risks, including a nationalist backlash in Iraq against the U.S. military presence. But Iraqis have been demonstrating in the streets for weeks against Iran’s meddling in Iraqi politics, and the small U.S. force is there at Iraqi invitation. U.S. officials need to make clear the strikes are defensive to protect Iraqi and American lives, and that the U.S. will respond again if the Iranian militia attacks continue.
A strong statement from Mr. Trump would also help since the attacks are really aimed at persuading him to cut and run. A Commander in Chief can’t afford to show weakness with American lives and interests on the line.
Quite true, Bush’s problem was not the invasion and occupation of Iraq and Afghanistan. It was allowing them to have elections before the war was won and restricting the atrocities U.S. troops were allowed to commit. The model in war was provided by General McCarthur’s absolute rule of Japan as military governor during World War Two.