There are nearly three times more Jews in Florida’s Palm Beach than Obama’s entire margin of victory in the state in 2012
Unprecedented state-by-state research indicates Jews are mostly Democrats, not necessarily ‘liberal,’ could swing election in a tight race
A new study, touted as the first-ever state-by-state, county-by-county Jewish population estimate, shows how the Jewish vote could play a crucial role in key battleground states.
The study, released Thursday and conducted by the Steinhardt Social Research Institute at Brandeis University in suburban Boston, found that in Bucks County, Pennsylvania — one of the areas closely watched this election cycle — Jewish adults make up more than 6 percent of the population.
“That’s three times more than the national numbers” of Jews, said research associate Daniel Parmer.
Jewish voters also have a record of higher-than-average turnout.
“If it’s a tight race,” Parmer said, “Jewish voters could swing the election” in that county.
The study also shows how the Jewish vote could have significant impact in Florida’s Palm Beach area, where the 209,400 Jews there make up nearly 15 percent of the adult population, according to the study.
President Barack Obama waves after arriving on Air Force One at West Palm Beach Airport in West Palm Beach, Fla., Monday, Oct. 22, 2012, ahead of his final debate tonight against Republican presidential candidate, former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney at Lynn University in Boca Raton, Fla. (photo credit: Terry Renna/AP)
President Barack Obama waves after arriving on Air Force One at West Palm Beach Airport in West Palm Beach, Fla., Monday, Oct. 22, 2012, ahead of his final debate against Republican presidential candidate, former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney at Lynn University in Boca Raton, Fla. (photo credit: Terry Renna/AP)
That number is significant in a state where President Barack Obama won by less than 1 percent in 2012, or 74,309 votes.
The study also looked at American Jews’ party identification, finding that 54% of American Jews identify as Democrats, while 14% identify as Republicans.
But only 43% of American Jews call themselves liberal, a lower percentage than those who say they are Democrats.
Screen shot of an interactive map by the American Jewish Population Project breaks down the Jewish population by state and even county. (American Jewish Population Project)
Screen shot of an interactive map by the American Jewish Population Project breaks down the Jewish population by state and even county. (American Jewish Population Project)
“We see a higher proportion of Jews who identify as Democrats but a lower proportion have liberal political views,” Parmer said. “Conversely, there are more Jews who identify as conservative [21%] than Jewish Republicans.”
The results also show that 36% of American Jews consider themselves neither liberals nor conservatives, and that 32% identify as neither Democrats nor Republicans.
The American Jewish Population Project’s latest report, which is based on population figures from 2015, includes new data on gender and race, as well as population profiles for major metropolitan areas on the East Coast, West Coast and Chicago.
The study and updated map is based on nearly 250 independent samples of the US adult population collected from 2008 to 2015. This includes more than 280,000 respondents, of whom nearly 6,000 are Jewish.
The institute’s director, Leonard Saxe, along with Parmer and the population project’s director, Elizabeth Tighe, sat down with JTA in advance of the release of the data to talk about the numbers.
Among the most notable findings is the diversity among Jewish millennials — young adults aged 18 to 34. The study puts the number of millennials who identify as Jews “by religion” at 1.4 million.
The study shows a decline in party identification among millennials, with 37% saying they identify with neither Democrats nor Republicans. Among those who do identify, 51% of millennials say they are Democrats, compared to 56% of Jewish adults aged 65 or older who identified as such. Only 12% of millennials say they are Republicans.
The study also finds perhaps surprising diversity among the younger Jews, with 30% identifying as non-white. That’s more than double the figure for Generation X, those born from the early 1960s to mid-1970s.
The information is relevant at the local level, where most Jewish community surveys do not include the racial breakdown, said Parmer, who noted the diversity in two New York City boroughs: Nearly 12 percent of Manhattan’s Jews identify as non-white, while in the Bronx, the figure swells to nearly 30 percent. He said this has implications for the political issues they care about, like social justice and racial inequality.
Overall, the study estimates that 4.2 million adults identify as Jewish “by religion.” Adding Jewish adults who identify in some other way plus an estimate for the number of Jewish children results in an overall population estimate of 7.16 million.
Saxe noted the challenges of estimating the Jewish population: the small sample size, the absence of religion data in the US Census and disagreement about criteria for determining who is a Jew.
The population of Jews who identify by religion is consistent with the 2013 Pew Research Center’s “Portrait of Jewish Americans,” whose results were factored into the study.
“The population is continuing to grow,” Saxe said. If you read media reports, “you might think the sky is falling and that we are continuing to see declines in the Jewish population, and that’s not the case.”
Other highlights of the study include:
* 57% of Jewish adults are college graduates.
* More than 1 in 10 Jewish adults identify as a person of color.
* More than one-quarter of Jewish adults are 65 years of age or older.
* Nearly 50% of the US adult Jewish population lives in one of three states: New York (23 percent), California (13 percent) or Florida (13 percent).
The researchers say that the study’s state-by-state analysis could be useful in understanding the Jewish dynamics of November’s presidential election.
/Can Lady May and Geert Wilders save Europe from herself?
I believe that with Trump as President, Europe has a chance! But this will require some kind of “Ideological Marshall plan”! Two allies are available and DT has already create his alliance with Bibi and El-Sissi.
A beginning, to rescue the foolish European socialists. Death to socialism! This time, Europe will have to pay a prize or let her fight Putin on her own!!! Freedom has a prize! Pay or get lost.
There are Europeans who want to get rid of NATO (Melenchon, a far left candidate for Presidency in Fr.). It will be their choice!
Austin Said:
I love the manner in which academics battle over titles.
stevenl Said:
Cattle dip is a called for nessescity.
@ Austin:
The pretentious elite/intellectuals is/are full of parasites.
@ stevenl:
He was not even a professor, but a part time Senior lecturer, and it was the habit to refer to Senior lecturers as “professor”.
BHO is the PAST. He misused his authority & play the ideologue professor.
Fast forward! No time to waste for he made things a lot worst for ALL!
President Hussein says that terrorist muslim nations come FIRST over American victims of muslim terrorists. Trump says different, he says americans first.
I place no reli ance on the American Jews, not the majority, who are only Jews in name, to come through for Israel,Jews and Trump. They have always voted against their own long term interests, for perceived short term gains. They KNOW that Clinton makes a fuss of them because of election donations etc, but the lure of a handshake in front of a camera, as well as maybe a shloff in Lincoln’s old bed, is too much for them. They want to put the photo on the wall and boast about it.
As well as mention “Hillary” in familiar terms as a pal, a friend, a landsman…ugh.
But this is a Jewish failure of moral character, stemming from the Ghetto centuries, and the whip of the boyar across the shoulders.
We can only pray extra hard this Yomtavim..and hope.
@ honeybee:
Yep. There are Jews out here in the hinterlands of the USA. But in our local jurisdiction, the Town of Cross Plains, a rural township in the southestern quadrant of Dane County WI, Arnold and Stefi Harris, along with our eldest son Israel Harris are the only Jews we know of.
We purposely shun the fellowship of liberal Jews such as who support for public office walking pestilences such as Hilary Rodham Clinton. By the way, Mrs Clinton is a proven antisemite who once shrieked at the husbands campaign manager, Paul Fray, following a lost election in Arkansas in 1974:
“You fucking Jew bastard!”
Ironically, Mr Fray has been described as not Jewish.
This incident was witnessed by three people who are described as having been present to witness her hate-filled tirade.
Arnold Harris, Outspeaker
@ honeybee:
Here is the “Recipe”: good education and values!
Bize.
Shabbat Shalom
stevenl Said:
Smart girl, how did that happen, voices.???? Yes there are Jew out here in the hinterland.
It is to be hoped that the Jews of the swing are different from the liberals from NY, Hollywood, Boston, Florida (ex-NY) and Chicago! But there are plenty of them in Cleveland too! Not optimistic about the Jews, not at all.
A “white” person is a person of one kind of color! So better say non-white!
Speculations (that’s all the mass media waste their time with + demonization) and good intentions are NO recipe for good policies! The road to catastrophes are full of good intentions as my daughter keeps telling me.