Livni’s Source of Desperation: A new report shows that the demographic predictions Minister Tzipi Livni has been basing her decisions on is incorrect.
As Minister Tzipi Livni et al are ending their second week of negotiations over how many Jews to expel from Judea and Samaria in order to receive from the Arabs recognition of our right to exist, new figures have emerged that might explain the sudden urge of Livni and the Israeli left to finish this thing quickly, set it in motion and be done with it. It turns out the “demographic bomb” everyone, from President Obama to the lowliest lackey at J-Street, have been warning Israel about, does not exist. Or rather, there used to be a bomb, but events and the economy and whatnot have turned it into a pitiful firecracker. Not only are there more Jews than Arabs in the entire territory between the Jordan River and the sea, but the Jewish numbers are becoming even greater, while the Arab numbers are in the dumps.
Dr. Guy Bechor recently published an explanation of a demographic study by Jacob Feitelson, using data from Israel’s Central Bureau of Statistics. The report compares Jewish to Arab birthrates in Judea and Samaria, as well as Israeli vs. Palestinian Authority demographics as a whole. The article was written in response to Israel’s Minister of Justice Tzipi Livni’s distress at what she believes is the demographic threat to the Jewish state, and why Israel must rush to disengage from Judea and Samaria to maintain a Jewish majority.
The report shows that the demographic predictions that Livni has been basing her decisions on is incorrect. The original report can be read here. Source: Gplanet. (The blue line includes non-Jewish children of Jewish families)
1. Arabs across the Middle East and especially in Judea and Samaria are experiencing a collapse of their birthrate, from an average of 8 children per mother down to fewer than
3. The reasons are the rise in education and in income, and urbanization (smaller apartments, fewer children).
2.The most significant finding in the data are settler related births. Unlike Arab and even Haredi birth levels—which are going down, too, settler birth levels are not dropping off, but, instead, rising.
In 1997, Arab births in Judea and Samaria were at 4.76 children per mother compared to the settler’s 4.69. But by 2011 that number changed significantly, with 5.07 births per Jewish settler mother versus only 3.06 per Arab mother. The difference between the two became even larger in 2012. Within pre-1967 Israel, Jewish birth-rates are currently around 3 children per mother, but the fashionable thing is increasingly to have 4 children per family. Altogether, out of 8.15 million residents in all of Israel, 6 million are Jews, 6.5 if you count family members who are not themselves Jewish. According to Bechor, at the current birth rate of 1 million every 7 years, Israel will hit 2 digits in 15 years, with the vast majority being Jewish. Source: Gplanet 3.
The report pointed out another common error of previous demographic studies: overlooking the effects of the Oslo Accords on Arab demographics. The Oslo Accords introduced 40,000 foreign PLO Arabs into Yesha (Judea, Samaria and Gaza) from overseas, and Israel granted “family unification” to another 140,000 Arabs who became Israeli citizens.
This added a significant, but temporary increase to the Arab demographic data. In addition, in 2003 Israel introduced a massive cut in child subsidies (it just did it again this week), ending a situation in which having children was, to some Arab families, a very real source of income. The fact that the Arab birthrate plummeted following the cut suggests the policy, though unkind, achieved the intended results. 4.
Another important factor is immigration and emigration. Israel receives around 18,000 new immigrants a year (including 15,000 who leave and return), whereas Arab emigration is currently around 10,000 Arabs a year, with some years as much as 18,000-25,000 leaving each year. In 2007, Jordanian data indicated that 60,000 Arabs had left Judea and Samaria. Another figure not commonly discussed regarding Israeli emigration is that 15% of the emigrants are Israeli Arabs.
The number of Arab emigrants from Gaza has declined in recent years due to Egypt’s blocking of its border with Gaza. Most of the Arabs leaving Judea and Samaria are looking for work in other countries. 5. The Palestinian Authority keeps changing its demographic forecasts, coming up with more and more exaggerated figures (4 so far), knowing full well that if it gave an honest accounting of its 1.5 million—and shrinking—population in Judea, Samaria and Gaza, it would no longer be able to scare the Jews and the world into new concessions.
Finally, there are some psychological facts that cannot be measured but can certainly be assessed from these figures. A high birthrate means optimism, says Dr. Bechor. We have in Israel today an optimistic public, involved in the ongoing effort to increase families and the nation. A high birthrate also means an expectation of prosperity. It also means that aliyah, although still in modest numbers – around 20 thousand a year – is nevertheless constant and offers yet another optimistic note. The only segment of Israeli society that is not experiencing this optimistic growth is the left, which has, basically, given up the hope of leading Israeli politics in the foreseeable future. The only hope they have of getting back in the saddle has been laid out by Minister Tzipi Livni in a Kol Israe interview this week: Naftali Bennett and Jewish Home, which are the enemies of a land-for-peace solution, should leave government, and Labor should take their place. That’s the scenario. They don’t have the numbers, of course, they were relegated by a solid, right wing public to the basement of decision making history – but they still have Benjamin Netanyahu. For now.
About the Author: Yori Yanover has been a working journalist since age 17, before he enlisted and worked for Ba’Machane Nachal. Since then he has worked for Israel Shelanu, the US supplement of Yedioth, JCN18.com, USAJewish.com, Lubavitch News Service, Arutz 7 (as DJ on the high seas), and the Grand Street News. He has published two fun books: The Cabalist’s Daughter: A Novel of Practical Messianic Redemption, and How Would God REALLY Vote.
@ Laura:
You and I are in accord. Now to convince the rest of the population. Texas is being sued for attempted to make sure only citizens vote.
@ honeybee:
If it was up to me, the voting age in America would be raised to 30.
I would make an exception for people in the military under 30.
@ honeybee:
We don’t have a pure democracy. We have a republic.
@ Robert_K:
Scrambed eggs!!!!!!!!!!!!!xxoo
@ honeybee:
It means that she and crazy uncle Shimon should go on the Sunday Bagels and Lox lecture circuit.
NormanF Said:
The USA is now having its eetions decide by the fatherless,feral children of young unmarried mothers.
@ yamit82:
That can be done through switching to a first past the post electoral system. It negates the principle of balanced demographic representation. Personally, I think pure democracy is a form of civilizational suicide.
Now that’s out of the way, the Arabs are not the problem. The Jews are – and the fate of the country is in their hands.
yamit82 Said:
But, one Jew in the hand is better then 10 Arabs in the bush. You and I are perfect examples, two Magpies.
@ honeybee:
That may be true and certainly the Arab Maggots reflect those insights of yours but we are speaking here of only comparative population demographics diaper heads vs Jooos.
@ Robert_K:
Does that mean that she shoud not be allowed to nest of lay eggs?
Tzippi is a shortened form of the Hebrew name צִפּוֹרָה Tzipporah which itself is derived from צִפּוֹר meaning bird. Tzippi Livni true to her name is a real bird-brain. Ariel Sharon promoted her to Justice Minister because as a bird-brain she could serve as a useful idiot to bludgeon through his inane Gaza Disengagement to safeguard his Etrog status. No wonder Time magazine (Famous for {Menachem} Begin rhymes with Fagin) chose Tzippi Livni as one of its 100 most influential women.
@ CuriousAmerican:
@ yamit82:
It is always been of interest me when men write about something they know little about,childbirth. While Arab girls may have more children at a younger age,Jewish children born of mature educated mothers will thrive better and be more producutive to Israel. Those Jewish children will healther and far better educated to face an increasinly complex world in which the must compete.
A Arab woman in her late child earing years wil produce children from a exhasted and depleted womb.
Tzippi is a shortened form of the Hebrew name צ ִ ו ּ ֹר ָ ה Tzipporah
which itself is derived from צִוו ּ ֹר Tzippor meaning bird. Tzippi true to her name is a real bird-brain. Ariel Sharon chose her to be Justice Minister during the Gaza Disengagement because as a bird-brain she was the perfect useful idiot to implement this inane policy to maintain Sharon’s Etrog status. No wonder Time Magazine (Famous for the comment that [Menachem] Begin rhymes with Fagin) named Tzippi Livni as one its 100 most influential women.
NormanF Said:
The population of Israel
Demographic
characteristics
The proportion of children (ages 0-14) in the Jewish population is 26%,
compared to 38% in the Arab population; the proportion of those aged 65
and over is 12% and 4%, respectively.
Arab women have children much earlier than Jewish women from 14 yrs of age so that in ages 0-14 Arabs are more prolific than Jews. The Jewish population is much older than the comparative Arab population and the Jews have longer life expectancies.
By the time the 0-14 age groups reach voting age of 18 they will constitute about 32-35% of the total population eligible to vote.
By the time the Jewish women has their first child the Arab women has had 2-3 children. That’s the big problem
If they vote as a unified block with say leftists and other anti Jewish elements in Israel they could potentially constitute a winning plurality and form a governing coalition. Ramifications for a Zionist and Jewish State are obvious.
Consider also that in the Stats there are included some half million halachic non Jews holding Israeli citizenship as Jewish Israelis. Some maybe most are well assimilated and are loyal others not. If those not loyal at some point join with the left and Arab 32-35% they could potentially become a voting majority.
Adding 2-3 million Wes Bank Arabs could in a short time allow the Arabs to reach without the Jews a blocking plurality because the Jews are too fragmented.
You have to fine tune the raw statistics which look superficially favorable to the Jews and do what I have done. The Jewish population majority holds at the end of the curve but not in the middle to lower age groups which are less favorable to the Jews. Our political system has to be changed to negate the anomaly.
Hopeful news, however his graph is still troubling:
http://i2.wp.com/www.jewishpress.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/08/fertility-rates-1990-2011.jpg?resize=457%2C413 (Graph)
While the Arab vs Jews numbers are converging, they have not crossed yet.
Until they cross, the Arab demographic threat is merely slowed down, not eradicated.
That graph is 2 years old. It is still troubling.
It will buy you more time, but it is still not an adequate solution.
A lot of Israeli gains come from Haredim who do not mix with the rest of Israeli society.
The trend is hopeful, but it is not settled, yet.
It begs the question as to why Israel’s leaders – and Yamit on the right – want to mortgage Israel’s future out of a fear of the Arab demographic bugaboo.
Today more Jews live in Israel than lived in the country in the days of King David and that number will only increase! There is plenty to be cheerful about. Now its time for the Jews to stop being their own worst enemies.
Livni is destructive in spades. Not only will those who are having the most children be disrupted in their lives, but it will cause a reversal of the birthrate situation – what is called a self-fulfilling prophecy. “See, if we can disrupt productive people, they won’t be productive anymore.” And, of course, the situation is worse than what is being planned for. If Israel, within their new but smaller borders, becomes too crowded, then people will leave. Livni believes withdrawal will most disrupt the Hareidi and Nationalist populations, but it is the secular who will leave for greener pastures, because that is what has happened in the past.
With Livni keeping her eye on the goal of withdrawal, she is missing the broader picture, something that is usually more available to the female of the species. Too small a country is a risk not only because of external threats, but because of internal pressures. She is fooling with stuff the consequences of which she cannot predict. Stability yields optimism which, in turn, yields stability. Disruption – not so much!