Stephen Bryen | Weapons & Strategy | Oct 15, 2024
Zelensky is going to give his “Victory” speech on October 16 to Ukraine’s parliament, the Verkhovna Rada, but much of the speech will be secret. The secret part is about giving up territory to Russia.
Some parts will be open to the parliament and the public. He will again push for more weapons, especially ATACMS missiles, he will try and justify the Kursk operation that has already cost more than 20,000 lives and where Ukraine’s army is being systematically pushed back; he will complain about North Korean troops in Ukraine, but not provide an iota of evidence there are any, and he will ask for NATO troops to come and help out.
It is no secret that Russia regards any troop operation by NATO as a declaration of war, permitting the Russians to attack NATO bases and supply channels.
A foreboding is Germany’s decision to no longer provide any heavy weapons to Ukraine, mainly because they don’t have any. The German situation is more extreme than Poland or France, but neither of them are anxious to see Russian missiles crashing down on their territory. In the case of Britain, aside from capable special forces, the British army is barely a shell of its former self. Britain has been wasting billions on aircraft carriers instead of bolstering its land forces.
Leopard 2A4 operated by members of the Ukrainian Army. Illustrative image, photo credit: General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine
The Rada has just passed new legislation that allows NATO officers to command Ukrainian units. So far, Russia has mostly been quiet, because they probably do not believe that NATO will supply field commanders for Ukraine’s military. But if it happens, and that is a big “if”, the Russians will see it as NATO sending combat troops and react accordingly.
Some speculate that Zelensky will hint at a desire to get some sort of cease fire and establish a buffer zone patrolled by a kind of coalition of NATO-willing. This is being billed as a Zelensky “concession” to the reality of Russia occupying Ukrainian territory. But it is a tricky landscape. The Azov-style hardliners won’t accept such a deal, something Zelensky knows. Nor is there any reason for the Russians to give up on their political objectives, the main one being the demilitarization and de-NATO-ization of Ukraine.
Kursk is slowly but surely being rolled up by the Russians without them needing to shift any troops from other conflict areas in Ukraine. Zelensky still says it is a bargaining chip of sorts, but in this either he is deluded or mistaken.
There also are rumors that Ukraine may try to attack Transnistria, the breakaway area of Moldova that includes a few thousand Russian troops (some of them on an agreed peace-keeping mission and others protecting a huge ammunition dump left over from the Soviet period).
Transnistria T-64 Main Battle Tank (there are only 15 in inventory)
Russia does not officially recognize Transnistria and would find it hard to defend the territory, as it is very far from where Russian forces are deployed in Ukraine and Crimea.
This past week the Russians used high precision weapons against the Lymanske airfield in the Odessa region, apparently knocking out hangers and storage areas. The airfield is a drone assembly location for Ukraine. Near it are rail lines that deliver fuel, parts for drones, and other spare parts shipped from Moldova by rail. The Russians also have been attacking dry cargo ships in the port of Odessa that are unloading weapons and military supplies from Turkey.
One can expect that if the Ukrainians attack Transnistria the Russians will destroy the ammunition dumps and try to cause as much damage as they can to Ukraine’s forces, primarily using missiles and air power. How such an operation would benefit Zelensky is hard to say, if at all. Moldova also has an important election on October 20. A Ukrainian attack on Transnistria could backfire and topple the current pro-NATO. pro-EU Moldovan government.
The secret parts of Zelensky’s speech won’t be secret for more than 5 minutes. Once Zelensky’s opponents understand that he is willing to give up territory to Russia, he won’t last much longer as Ukraine’s President.
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