T. Belman. Why resort to a temporary law needing renewal every 5 years. Instead extend sovereignty outright to all of Area C or at least the settlements and the Jordan Valley. The only problem is that Likud would rather bring down the coalition rather than vote for sovereignty. After they succeed in bringing down the government they can always pass the sovereignty law in three months.
Deputy Minister Abir Kara (Yamina) on Friday commented on the political crisis in an interview with Channel 12 News, and said that he had spoken with MK Nir Orbach, who is contemplating his next move after receiving an offer with the Likud.
“Nir is strong and stable. I understand Orbach’s anger after he sees that Ra’am and Meretz vote against the coalition,” said Kara.
“Shaked, Orbach and I will promote many more things. They are trying to create chaos. The Judea and Samaria Regulations Law will be brought up for a vote on Monday and if they vote it down, we will apply sovereignty in Judea and Samaria. If we do not succeed in passing the Judea and Samaria Law, we will bring an even bigger law that will contain sovereignty in Judea and Samaria,” he stated.
Asked if he is in talks with the Likud, Kara replied, “I have voters and I need to serve them. As long as I can promote my agenda, I am here. At the moment I am not in contact with anyone.”
@ELONI-
I hope it happens soonest. Although, I would think, that given the long period of instability this govt has shown, alliances and other needed connections would already have been made, and that this is a last attempt to get the maximum before lowering the boom.
But, as I said , they threaten, refuse to vote support, they walk out in a snit-but come back to continue on issues of which we don’t yet know the outcome…….and the goyt is STILL here.
So “games” are still in play.
@SEBASTIEN-
I promise not to raise a dagger…. I paint a scenario, and don’t really believe it will occur, unless YESH residents and the Sovereignty Movement (Women In Green et all) irrevocably have decided thy HAVE to move. on it.
If it happens I can see an almost immediate offensive, defensive and economic alliance between them and Israel, and eventually be absorbed back into the .one State-of Israel.
@Edgar Well, Julie Caesar didn’t do to badly for himself ’til he was murdered by his comrades but I guess it can’t be all salad days, can it? Though et tu Edgar doesn’t have quite the same ring to it, somehow.
Be funny if your scenario came true – a reply of history with teo Jewish states named Israel and Judea. They’d have ti subsume sam
@Edgar
There is a reason to this long pregnant pause, though. By taking the time to form some coalition, hopefully with all members of the wayward Right, but likely with some others whose asking price is less toxic than that paid by Bennett, they will prevent Lapid from becoming caretaker PM. I hope they succeed, but I think it has a thin chance of success. The recent poll has added a good bit of reason for Orback and Shaked to gain the 10 members to support the Right, even if the unenviable specter of Lapid being PM would not be enough motivation by itself. Still, I think they are faced with a daunting task.
#PELONI-
Yes I read about the leaving the meeting and being persuaded to come back. If he was persuaded then the leaving was a ploy. Orbach here, I believe is doing s little subtle blackmail. With all his VERY negative pronouncements of DOOM over the past few weeks, WHY is this govt still “standing” tottering from “crisis” to crisis…..????.
Standard form for politicians who want to squeeze the best they can get out of the opponent.
Consider…there are 2-3 other dissatisfied MKs who have also expressed the same DOOM and threats of not voting with govt, and etc., BUT STILL have not brought this tottering depleted relic DOWN.
@SEBASTIEN-
I heve a name ..unless you also want me to change yours, to…say…”Julie”
YESH military , if they decide to “go Sovereign” would already be organised beforehand, and have made arrangements for all contingencies including weapons systems. They have many friends and comrades from Israel. Who as individuals could easily join in to help if needed. A sort of internal “international” Brigade, as it were.
They are MORE dedicated than the rest of Israel. they don’t live in YESH just for cheaper apartments only. Many are ideologue.
Internal policing would be minimal I’d say, unless the Mamzerim put up a stout resistance, which I seriously doubt. Maybe a brave front, pre collapse immediately after. They are Arabs, terrorists, not militarily trained, nor under a unified command, nor with a hack-secure system of communications set up. etc. and much more we don’t need to go into.
@READER-
Israel’s present and continuing policy is better than “taking over” the “territories” that you mention. To take over then they would have the complete responsibility fo having 1.5 mill Arabs on their overstrained health and Social rolls.POlicing, and the general trappings of Israeli Govt.
Better to pay the PA, however crooked and inefivient, which makes it THEIR problem and not Israel’s. When the time is right, and more important matters are settled, ..THEN….
READER stop that Chazarse habit of putting your thoughts on my shoulders. You do it all the time and other posters have pointed this out.
I did not say or even THINK that it would give Israel free rein to shoot rioters. That’s a lie. And do you REALLY (it seems you do) believe that the Police could noit handle the roiters. It seems youm do.How short sighted, almost ignorant of the facts behind their restraint.
The use the policy of HAVLEGAH to avoid stirring up worse that they would be FORCED to deal with relentlessly.
Israel COULD but does NOT want to, fight on 4 fronts. as they are VERY uneven in firepower. I hoped Hezbollah would not be mentioned.
Gaza are, realistically ,”pinpricks” and could be wiped out in a matter of a few hours. YESH is as I’ve described Hezbollah is a big threat, but Israel has a 50 times bigger equipment to handle it. It’s escaped your notice maybe..? that Israel is one of the top 5, certainly to 10 air forces in ther world.
And we’d be fighting for our lives, families homes, and existence. They could obliterate Hezbollah, They might take casualties at first but that’s what Iron the Laser system are for. That’s THREE fronts. actually less than 2 full fronts.
I, if incharge, and it came to be serious ground fighting, would secretly assemble a strong force at Israel’s northernly points, above the Litani area and sweep rith across the coultry to the Sea, then turning south, woll up all the ebemy emplacements from the rear…run huge pipes and pumps from the |Sea and drown out all the undeground facilities etc.
ASnd Much More.
The fact is that Israel, even hindered and bogged down with the High Court illegal decrees, could , if it REALLY decided to act, clear out ALL it’s enemies withing weeks or a few months depending on how much opposition international interference would accumulate, and in Israel’s decisiveness to ignore them for now anf fix the relationships after all is calm.
The time will have com ewhen Israel must stand or fall by it’s OWN decisions and not allow outside malignity to interfere. Allies will be important, even protesting allies. but that is in the realm of politics, not War.
Im tired of this subject now,so please don’t bring up any more piffling pilpulim.
@Ted
There are now reports that Orback left the meeting with Bennett amid shouting and someone raced after him to bring him back. Of course this dramatic telling of the story is based upon the ‘reports’ by Kan 11, so the routine no-source sourcing. A similar no-source sourcing states that he “will never return to the coalition.”
https://www.israelnationalnews.com/news/354844
If Orback and his wayward members of the Right do not succeed in the rearrangement of the current Knessett members, Lapid will be left as caretaker PM, as it is dictated in the original agreements reached when the govt was formed last year, which I think we would all agree is quite an unpleasant outcome for many reasons. If, however, the Right should be successful in the reshuffling scenario empowering the Right alone, it would naturally be all roses and lollipops, but I agree, with only two seats to spare, the likelihood of successfully forming a Right wing govt seems quite remote, given the various personalities involved and the heightened sense of personal animus held between all of them. Unless Bibi makes some very unpleasant choices and/or at least a few members of the Bennett’s govt, other than those with Yamina and New Hope, choose to read the poll numbers and capitalize on the moment, the only likely outcome is for the current govt to persist as is, or for the current govt to fall with Lapid moving his wrecking ball mouth to the office of the PM in a caretaker govt. The latter of these does seem to be the more likely outcome I believe.
Honestly, I can not believe that anyone on the ideological Right would allow Lapid to gain the possession of the PM, even with the limits of caretaker status. Still, if we were really looking at people who could claim to be members of the ideological Right, there would be a Right wing govt in power and not this collection of self interested, diametrically opposed factions passing out bribes to Abbas and Meretz to maintain their hold on power. Hence, I think the govt will likely fall after a week or two of haranguing, and once again demonstrate that the Right is quite immobilized by the intransigence of its members to accept the mandate issued to it by the election over one year ago, quite an ongoing tragedy with devastating outcomes.
@Peloni
Orback is in fact standing for a realignment of the government based on the existing Knesset Members. That would require 10 of the existing 12 seats held by New Hope and Yamina to join the current opposition. I don’t think it is doable. So why is he taking this position?
https://www.jpost.com/israel-news/politics-and-diplomacy/article-709290
@Grasshopper Any generals, strategic planners? Armies have a division of labor and it takes time to organize and prepare for all contingencies, doesn’t it? What kind and quantity of weapons? With less than a month to go? As for the rest? Nobody can be that stupid. It will be renewed one way or t’other. Just in the nick of time. Trust je.
@Grasshopper Hezbollah.
@Edgar G.
@Peloni
If it were that easy, Israel would have taken over the territories decades ago.
You seem to imply that Israel would be free to shoot the rioting civilians regardless of age and gender, and that it wouldn’t have to fight on at least 4 fronts (J&S, Gaza, rioting Arabs within the Green Line (the police cannot take care of the rioting and terror now), and, yes, Hizballah, and who knows what else including the Abraham Accords signers and the “world community” which will be sending arms to the “suffering Arab civilians to defend themselves from the Israeli aggression” just like they do now with Ukraine.
I wish I could be as optimistic as you.
I think this is just another sovereignty trick to enable the Palestinian state.
To me it appears that Israel’s government thinks that the Zionist experiment has failed.
@SEBASTIEN-
WHAT amateurs….???? I’ve already posted that many YESH residents are fully trained IDF as well as many reservists, ranking officers, even complete units.. They could have an organized army in a couple of weeks or 1-2 days, depending on the urgency. With some heavy equipment I’m sure they could handle it alone.
*****A FACT. The IDF carries out a survey annually. THIRTY FOUR PER CENT of ALL J&S residents (roughly 175-200,000) are presently serving in the IDF, the highest demographic rate in all Israel by quite a margin******
And as for your other negative postulations, I do NOT believe that the regular IDF would sit idly and watch Jews, their comrades , being slaughtered by Arab mamzerim. No Israeli govt, would survive a day if anything like that might occur. The Defence Minister would be hanged from the nearest lamp post, and the COS would be keeping him company.
It’s the one thing that would never happen in Israel, amid all the other “never happens” that do happen.
And, as I’ve already reminded Reader, the IDF holds the Heights and the Jordan Valley, as well as having the complete ability to move forces ANYWHERE in YESH at any time.
The Arabs would be in a hopeless mess even before they began anything.
As for the US recognition, if the Arabs began anything major, there would , today, be NO Golda Meir-like restraint resulting in Israel almost losing a war.
Only my opinion of course, but your comments are only your opinion also, so we can both “fight it out” on an even “battlefield”. I’ll let you have the first “punch”. (please don’t mention Hezbollah)…………..
Apply sovereignty! Damn what comes next. Should the Arabs enjoy their lives and their control of the Jewish lands they currently rule over with so little regard that they would prefer to march on their Jewish neighbors, well, this would settle every damn problem but Gaza, which, by itself, would no longer need to be used as a counterweight to the self eliminated Arab rule in Areas A B or C.
Regardless of this choice of the Arabs, though, there should be no choice for the Jews in choosing to see all Jews living under the civil laws in a sovereign Jewish state. It has been completely unacceptable to allow the continued suffering of the Jews to live on Jewish lands as secondary citizens in their own country, where the EU and others can designate them as being illegitimate citizens and precluded from trade and benefit from every aspect of living freely in their own nation. There can be no penalty placed upon Jews due to their living in the lands of their heritage. Israel is an economic and technological power, and if she can not wield these assets to benefit and safeguard all her people, what the hell is the point of the Jews having their own state. Such ‘accommodations’ of marginalizing Israel’s citizens, placing barriers between them from afar, are intolerable and only persist due to the considerations of placating our enemies, even if they choose to falsely robe themselves as our friends.
If Israel, the only Jewish State, is truly a sovereign nation, let her demonstrate that independence, at least so far as extending the civil rights and sovereignty to all her Jewish subjects. It is the least one should expect from the Jewish State, and it is the most intolerable sense of infamy that the Jews of Judea and Samaria have been forced to accept this haggard state of existence where they are precluded from so much as adding a house, a bedroom or a door, due to the fact that foreigners have promised Jewish lands to satisfy Arabs for their consistent betrayals and murders of innocent Jews.
@READER-
It might take 6 months hunting them out of their rabbit holes, but just think rationally. I am an avid student of military strategy and tactics. Many wars are won by the individual, not-ordered, sudden spotting of a weak link and within hours the war is virtually over, although it might drag on.
Like the 1967 war where that hysterical British war correspondent broadcast after 10 hours, what nobody believed, “to all intents and purposes this war is OVER”… (I have a tape recording of that somewhere)
Hypothetically,….If I were in command, I’d have a holding action at Gaza, (max pop. 1.3 mill) with, say 2 tank battalions,(25 tanks) maybe a few half-tracks, a few warplanes and mortars, plus some Iron Domes and/or the new Laser beam if operational. They’d be all hiding uinderground.
Rather like the tank holding action on the Golan whilst other fronts were being completed, and allowed reinforcements to the Golan.
The Israeli “5th column” that you mention would not be 2 mill , rather a minimum effort by some fanatics. The rest -if “activists”- would wait to see how it was developing before putting their toes in the water. The Police would handle it.
As for the (max 1.5 mill) Arabs in YESH, (like the “5th Column” and Gaza,),over half would be women either old -or young and untrained. another half of the remainder would be old men and kids under 14. They would have NO shelters, nor Iron Domes. The active men would be a kind of paramilitary rabble, with little or no training. And mainly bottled up in A and B.
The IDF would sweep through them like a dose of salts. They’d run like rabbits at the first or second salvos of mortar fire, not to mention IAF, tanks, ground troops etc. I don’t believe that Israel would even bother to use much of it’s other assets.
Believe me the River would be clogged with people trying to get over to Jordan.
And what about the fact that the IDF would be holding the heights and the Jordan Valley.
You’re talking “pipe-dreams”.
@Edgar
I quite agree!
@Reader
If the IDF can not handle the Arabs in these areas, how will they ever be able to successfully act against Iran. Buck up, these are not the real threat Israel faces. I do believe that Edgar’s suggestion that the Settlers could likely clean the Arab clocks by themselves if needed, but they won’t need to do so.
@TED-
At what you said at the beginning of you highlight, caused me to immediately to decide to post right away. but I then read the rest. It is exactly what I would have posted.
@Edgar G.
There are 2 million Arabs in J&S, a 2 million strong 5th column within the Green Line, and 2 million Hamasniks with their rockets in Gaza – as a minimum.
If you think about it, it becomes more like 6 months, not hours or minutes.
@Sebastien Zorn
A good question!
If it’s a government decision – how can this happen when the coalition is falling apart and the opposition won’t support it “just because”?
@Grasshopper Who would honor it? Who would defend it, how, and with what? For that matter against whom? Would the IDF just say, OK and either defend them or withdraw? Who would stop the influx of Arabs? Post-Kosovo, has the UN recognized a single secession by referendum? The Yesha Jews would need their own army first.
Would any Israeli government ever allow their vunerable flank to be left in the hands of amateurs?
It’s a mess hut it will be resolved before the month is up.
@READER-
You are not very accurate . You make a very speculative prognostication. Why should it automatically create a “palestinian State” in A and B. Two tiny landlocked separated enclaves -almost helpless
And what is if does…??? .Perhaps the Arabs in A&B might attempt to slaughter the C Jews, but what chance to they have?? The IDF would crush them in a few hours. Maybe “the 6 hour war”…or “the 6 minute war”..
Why promote “Scare Headlines” like a tabloid newspaper. Or MSNBC “News”
And I believe that if prepared, the Jewish “settlers” themselves would mop up the Arab mamzerim 1 2 3. Many are in the IDF you know, fully trained .
@SEBASTIEN-
I think that if YESHA had a referendum which decided on secession , it would be valid under International Law.
.
If they apply sovereignty to the Area C only, it will almost automatically create the “Palestinian” state in the Areas A & B, and the expulsion if not slaughter of the Jewish settlers, since the Jewish settlements are everywhere in the West Bank (Judea and Samaria).
And if that happens, how are they going to deal with the Arab settlements in Area C which the government has ignored to the point of actually encouraging them?
I suspect, this is what the whole “sovereignty” plan is about – another poisoned bait.
If they apply sovereignty to the whole of Judea & Samaria (as they should) – there will be a huge crisis which I doubt they are ready for.
By what mechanism can Yesha independently apply sovereignty? I thought it reverts to military law if the stopgap measure isn’t renewed.