Will Obama pressure Israel

By Ted Belman

Steve Rosen who is now blogging for Mid East Forum, recently answered some questions on Rosner’s Domain.

Using your experience and familiarity with Washington’s foreign policy elite, how would you describe the new Obama team and what kind of policy do you expect it to pursue?

I don’t think they are going to find the opportunities for Israeli-Palestinian peacemaking promising, much as they are ready to commit American resources to broker an agreement. They will learn, if they do not already know, that stepped-up American engagement is not a magic wand or the missing ingredient that will somehow transform the situation. Hamas’ control of Gaza, its foothold in the West Bank, the radicalism of the “outside” Palestinians, the stockpiles of Kassams, the Iranian role – all this and more will still be there. Abu Mazen represents a minority of all Palestinians, and does not have the credibility to obligate the PLO to concessions that many Palestinians would depict as a sellout. The Obama Administration will pursue a peace process to strengthen Abu Mazen and to meet the minimum needs of regional allies like Egypt, Jordan, and Saudi Arabia, as well as the Europeans. But this will reflect a strategy of conflict management rather than a naïve belief that the situation is ripe for conflict resolution.

The 64 million dollar question: is the Obama team going to “pressure” Israel? How and what about?

The main points of friction will be the traditional ones: Israeli settlement activity and the impact of Israeli security measures on the Palestinians. Many Democrats believe that Israel needs a little “tough love” in these areas, and that Bush was too tolerant toward Israel about them. How much of this pressure will be public, and how much it will really differ from past Administrations, all of whom also pressured Israel on these issues, remains to be seen.

Rubin and Krauthammer agree..

Barry Rubin, Israel, Not the Centre of the World

Consequently, there will be no all-out effort to pressure Israel into major concessions because everyone who counts knows these aren’t going to lead anywhere.

Rather, the administration will certainly expect Israel to keep things quiet so as not to interfere with its Iraq strategy. [..]

If Bibi Netanyahu is Israel’s next prime minister there’s certainly potential for friction between him and Obama. But if Israel has a national unity government, Bibi continues talks with the PA, seeks to strengthen it against Hamas, and even keeps chatting with Syria–even knowing these negotiations won’t lead anywhere–bilateral relations should be okay.

Charles Krauthammer in Domestic agenda is key for Obama

Obama has no intention of being a foreign policy president. Unlike, say, Nixon or Reagan, he does not have aspirations abroad. He simply wants quiet on his eastern and western fronts so that he can proceed with what he really cares about — his domestic agenda.

Morris and Glick disagree.

Dick Morris in United States, Israel on Collision Course

If Netanyahu wins the election, he will bring with him a determination to stop Iranian nuclear weapons no matter what and a refusal to concede more territory in the name of the peace process. But Obama’s foreign policy team will be focusing on pushing Israel in just the opposite direction.

The result is likely to be the most significant divergence between Israeli and American policies since 1956

Carolin Glick in Netanyahu’s Grand Coalition

People who have been in close contact with Obama’s foreign policy transition team have privately acknowledged that the widespread belief that Obama will move swiftly to put the screws on Israel is fully justified. According to one source who has spent a great deal of time with the transition team since last month’s US elections, Obama’s people are “scope-locked” on Israel.

The source reports that Gen. Jim Jones, Obama’s designated national security adviser, is Israel’s most outspoken critic. The source, who held a two and a half hour meeting with Jones, told his associates that Jones is keen to deploy NATO forces, perhaps including US troops, to Judea and Samaria.