Will Netanyahu accept the Kerry Framework?

By Ted Belman

Secretary of State Kerry is back in Israel pushing for the acceptance of his Framework. It is reported that this framework requires Israel’s agreement that borders will be based on ’67 lines plus swaps among other things. The PA didn’t hesitate to reject it whereas PM Netanyahu is trying to find a way to live with it.

You don’t have to be a maximalist to argue that the framework deal, as reported, should be a deal breaker, for Israel.

Thankfully, Jewish Home agrees.  Naftali Bennett, its leader,  says they will leave the government if such framework is accepted , even if, with reservations. Israel’s fourteen reservations on accepting the Roadmap in 2003 simply greased the wheels of acceptance without having any traction thereafter. So Bennett is right to not buy that snake oil.

Netanyahu refused to enter negotiations based on ’67 lines plus swaps and rightly so. But now, it appears,  that he is ready to accept such limitation of Israel’s rights, for something in return.  Nothing in return can justify such acceptance.  Even if the PA would agree that Israel was the Jewish national home and would agree to abandon the “right of return”, it would not be worth it. At the moment the so-called refugees  aren’t permitted to return and Israel is the Jewish national homeland, so we gain very little by accepting the Framework, certainly, nothing tangible.

’67 lines plus swaps doesn’t do justice to our legal and historical rights flowing from San Remo and the Mandate.  Nor does it do justice to our rights to secure borders as provided by UNSC Res 242. To accept such a guideline effectively wipes out such rights with nothing of value in return.

In that resolution, the Security Council authorized Israel to remain in the territories until she had recognized and secure borders, not borders, otherwise unsecure, but made secure with gadgets and guarantees, as presently proposed by Kerry.  As many an advertising slogan says, “accept no substitutes”.

Netanyahu has continually stressed that he won’t accept a deal that jeopardizes Israel’s security as though her security was the only thing at stake here.  He never said that he wouldn’t accept a deal that denies our legal and historical rights. He went so far as to prevent the validation of Israel’s rights by refusing to accept the Levy Report which did so.  Recently, he altered his public stance by saying “Peace will come only when our security interests and, yes, also our settlement interests, will be ensured,”.

That’s an improvement but a half measure. What he is saying is that he is fighting to retain the settlements, though not all settlements by any measure, but not the land.  In other words just enough land to enable us to keep the settlement blocs. He is saying he wants to keep a minor percentage of the land because the settlements are on it and not a much greater percentage of the land because we have a legal and historical right to it. Implicitly, he is accepting ’67 lines plus swaps.

But what’s with this “swap” business. Swaps were not mentioned in Res 242. The idea of swaps was first raised in conjunction with the Saudi Plan that President Bush insisted be included in the Roadmap in 2003. Prior to Kerry’s peace push he got the Saudis to agree to “minor swaps” as though this was a breakthrough or concession to Israel.  But it isn’t. Demanding swaps, minor or otherwise, has no legal foundation. Implicitly, to accept such a device, is to accept that we must return 100% of the land. And this is contrary to the provisions of Res 242.

Not only is Netanyahu abandoning Israel’s rights confirmed by the Levy Report, he is abandoning Israel’s rights inherent in Res 242. The mere fact that he entered negotiations which the PA demanded be based on ’67 lines plus swaps with the support of the “honest broker”, the US, without stressing that negotiations must be based on Res 242 says volumes. He contented himself with entering negotiations “without pre-conditions” when he should have asserted that he is entering negotiations based on Res 242.

But that’s not all.  In 2010, the Netanyahu government convinced a Knesset subcommittee that a Government report dealing with the Temple Mount should be buried out of ‘national security’ and ‘foreign policy’ concerns.  This was a report that revealed, “the terrifying truth about the Israeli conspiracy to relinquish control of Jerusalem’s Temple Mount to hands of the Muslim Waqf.”

Thus Netanyahu was continuing the great mistake Moshe Dayan made in giving the keys to the Temple Mount to the Waqf almost immediately after capturing the same in the ’67 war. In effect Netanyahu abandoned the holiest shrine of the Jewish people for fear of upsetting the Muslims or the international community. By accepting the Kerry Framework, he will be doing it again, irrevocably.

There is now much scuttlebutt about demanding the release of Jonathan Pollard as part of the negotiations. As if we should give up our rights in exchange for his release.  Nonsense.  Even Pollard rejects this idea. When President Clinton was demanding that Israel accept the terms of the Wye Agreement in 1996, he agreed with Netanyahu, who was prime minister at the time, on behalf of the US to the release of Pollard. Clinton then reneged on the agreement.

From the  Knesset record, February 28, 2001:

“…The former President of the United States, Bill Clinton, made an explicit commitment to the then-Prime Minister of Israel, Binyamin Netanyahu, to release Jonathan Pollard.

“This promise was made prior to the Wye Summit and [again] during the course of the negotiations at Wye… This was not a personal promise made to a particular prime minister… This was a promise made to the State of Israel and to the People of Israel…”

So said Dani Naveh, Minister without Portfolio.

What should have happened this time around is that Netanyahu should have demanded the release of Pollard before agreeing to negotiations. He should have demanded this because Clinton had agreed to it and because justice demands it.  Pollard’s sentence was grossly disproportionate to any sentence ever imposed for a similar offense and as such was a miscarriage of justice and a “cruel and unusual punishment”.

Netanyahu said last month in a video statement to the Saban Forum in Washington. month  “The core of this conflict has never been borders and settlements — it’s about one thing: the persistent refusal to accept the Jewish state in any border,”

This should not be interpreted to say that borders and settlements are not important.  Of course they are. So even if the PA accepts Israel as a Jewish state, agreement must still be found on borders.

Jodi Rodoren in the NYT, discussed this demand in great detail and called it a “sticking point in peace talks” and tried to make the point that who or what Israel is about is for Israel to decide and Israel doesn’t need the PA to agree. That would be true normally but since the PA denies the Jewish narrative in order to make claims on what is now Israel, it is imperative that they now abandon such claims by recognizing Israel as a Jewish State. Put it another way, Israel is entitled to demand an end of conflict agreement which of necessity requires such recognition. So in this, Netanyahu is right.

The chances of Netanyahu accepting the Framework are slim. Dani Dayan the former head of Yesha Council and now leading its diplomatic arm, recently opined in an interview, “Because according to my analysis, Netanyahu can’t do a thing without the Likud. He can build any coalition he wants but the one thing he can’t change is the composition of the Likud faction.”

Evidently the settlers have taken over Likud in order to prevent it from kicking them out of Yesha as happened in the disengagement from Gaza.

Dayan is not the least bit concerned.

“A diplomatic agreement with the Palestinians cannot happen in the current Knesset term of office. Netanyahu will not embrace such a far-reaching plan without [Defense Minister Moshe] Ya’alon’s security backing and [Minister of Interior] Gideon Saar’s political backing. I also don’t see political feasibility on the Palestinian side. I don’t think that [Palestinian Prime Minister] Abu Mazen [Mahmoud Abbas] wants it, and even if he does want it, he does not have the political power. Therefore, to a great extent, what we have is a mirror image that, in my opinion, transforms the planned declaration of principles to a “mission impossible.”

And that’s the bottom line.

 

 

 

 

January 4, 2014 | 4 Comments »

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4 Comments / 4 Comments

  1. I see two possibilities in the near term, going forward.

    First, there is the upcoming visit of Canadian PM Harper. This is a huge wild card. I suspect he will offer some kind of ‘alternative’ proposal. It may not go as far as annexing J&S – he can’t go to the right of Netanyahu, who doesn’t seem to want to do this, either – but it may adopt the ‘Jordanian option’ with provisions for parts of J&S that are contiguous with Jordan confederating with the same and remaining a DMZ buffer zone. He may argue that so long as the PA refuses to recognize Israel as the homeland of the Jewish people, then neither Israel nor her true allies should feel obligated to recognize the PA as the legitimate representatives of Palestinian national aspirations, either. So, “Jordan is Palestine” may be his message, and if he refuses to meet with Abbas, that will underscore such a policy (I understand that virtually alone among Western countries, Canada under Harper no longer provides any funding for the PA).

    I don’t think he is coming to Israel – his first state visit to Israel in his seven-year-old tenure as PM – to convince Netanyahu to capitulate to Obama/Kerry. And, at this juncture, with all that is at stake, with all the pressure Israel is under from Obama/Kerry, I don’t think he is going there simply to offer nonsubstantive rhetorical support to Israel, to simply say, “Hang in there! Canada is behind you! Stiff upper lip and all that! Must be going now…”

    If he is going there to offer an alternative, Israel-friendly proposal of his own, what good would this do? It would undermine Obama’s posture of being the ‘only game in town’, and coming from a major Western leader, this would give supporters of Israel – such as those in the U.S. Congress – something to rally around in opposition to Obama’s policies, which he has been able to represent up to now as being, again, the ‘only game in town’. This would make it harder, politically, for Obama to justify ‘sticking it to Israel’…

    …which leads me to my second scenario.

    If I am wrong about Harper, and his visit really does only amount to empty supportive rhetoric and nothing more, then we can look forward to Obama putting the following ultimatum to Netanyahu:

    “Accept my ‘diktat’ peace deal, which pretty much gives the Palis what they say they want and ignores most of what you want, or I abandon you at the UN. That Palestinian application for statehood that has been hanging in limbo since September of ’11 will magically come up for a vote, and I’ll abstain at the very least, or even vote in favor of it, and if you don’t withdraw COMPLETELY from J&S immediately following said vote, you’ll be branded an ‘occupying power’ by the UN and then be subject to all manner of sanctions, boycotts, etc., and you’ll go the way of Apartheid South Africa and Rhodesia.”

    I’m sure it was a threat of this type that led to the prisoner releases. It will be re-iterated if Netanyahu balks at Obama’s “formula”, which differs little from the Saudi plan, and which he laid out in his infamous May ’11 speech in front of the Foreign Service. He has not since budged a micron from the positions he laid out at that time.

    None of this is to say that Obama’s plan is going to necessarily work as intended, whether Harper runs interference or not. But this is what we have to look forward to coming from Obama. Netanyahu is going to have to face the real possibility of an historic fracture in the U.S.-Israeli alliance as such, and if he comes down hard on the virtually inevitable Intifada Three, potential expulsion from the UN.

    Some claim that Netanyahu is a “sellout”, but I don’t see this. If that were true, he could have done that long ago and made things a lot easier on himself personally. While some criticize him for ignoring the Levy Report, these critics forget that he was the one who commissioned this in the first place. I believe he did this expecting to act positively on the same, in anticipation of a Romney victory in ’12. When that didn’t happen, he trimmed his sails for a change of political winds he had not expected.

    I see in him a politician’s politician, who operates according to what he believes he has public support for. I have a guarded optimism that at the end of the day, he’ll stand up to Obama based simply on the fact that he knows he won’t survive politically within Israel otherwise. But presiding over the suspension or even dissolution of the U.S.-Israeli strategic parntership, for whatever that is really worth at this stage under Obama & Co., that will be a big leap for Bibi. This is the terrain over which he seems to be operating, trying to navigate.

    Sure hope he finds the cahones to hit Iran, one way or the other, if that is still in fact feasible. He has less and less to lose, that is for certain.

  2. @ NormanF:

    Peace Deal will only happen when Abbas becomes Swiss and renounces Islam will he change his stripes as a PLO terrorist in a suit. When the Palestinian Arabs are swapped for 2 million Swiss will a deal become a possibility.

    A deal now would be tantamount to agreeing to another Arab Islamic terror state in the heart of Judah and Samaria.@ NormanF:

  3. @ NormanF:
    I don’t see a peace deal happening.

    Unless the Palestinian Arabs cross the Rubicon and compromise on their maximalist demands – a framework agreement is impossible.

    What is there to compromise?

    Yes, he could agree to a Jewish state and to give up Jerusalem in theory.

    But he would never agree to have no border open with Jordan.

    He would never agree that Israel must control who comes in and out of the PA.

    He would never agree that Israel would get control of water and natural resources.

    The fact is:

    ISRAEL CANNOT SAFELY GIVE THE PALESTINIANS A TRULY INDEPENDENT STATE.

    He would never agree to anything less.

    This is an either/or proposition.

    If Israel will NOT give the Palestinians a true independent state, then no compromise is possible.

    This is why this is all a waste of time.

    THE MINIMUM THAT THE PALESTINIANS WOULD ACCEPT IS MORE THAN ISRAEL COULD SAFELY GIVE

    I do not blame Israel; but no compormise is possible.

    At the very minium the Palestinians would want an open border with Jordan. AT THE MINIMUM.

    Israel would never accept it. Jordan may not accept it either.

  4. I don’t see a peace deal happening.

    Unless the Palestinian Arabs cross the Rubicon and compromise on their maximalist demands – a framework agreement is impossible.

    Abu Bluff has no real interest in peace. He is only at the table to get the last tranche of convicted murderers released in April and then he will walk out.

    Israel doesn’t have leverage over the Palestinian Arabs and can’t force them to make peace. That is the bottom line.