By Ted Belman
Amir Taheri writing in NY POST asks, Can Hamas actually Rule?
[..] Fatah had some 60,000 armed men in Gaza, a strip of land covering some 65 square miles. It also had heavy cannons and rocket-propelled grenades, which Hamas lacked. Yet even Fatah’s four chief bases of al-Hawa, al-Muntadam, Sarayah and al-Safineh, claimed to be impregnable, fell in just a few hours, as their defenders fled.
That being the case how can Fatah possible survive in the West Bank? If the West Bank falls, can Jordan be far behind?
But he speculates, they bit off more than they can chew.
[..] Some 85 percent of Gaza’s estimated 1.7 million inhabitants (This is a gross exageration) depend on U.N. refugee organizations, mostly funded by the United States, for food and other daily needs. Yet Hamas would still need some $1.5 billion a year to keep the place afloat. Iran has promised to help, and the pan-Islamist movement of which Hamas is a branch is also certain to be generous. But even if that kind of money becomes available, Hamas’ ability to keep Gaza going, even at the miserable level of its current existence, is not guaranteed.
Having withdrawn from Gaza last year, Israel has sealed the strip’s land, sea and air borders. The only outlet still open is the Rafa’ah crossing on the border with Egypt. Were Egypt to close the crossing, Gaza could become one of those sealed rooms in which mysterious crimes are committed.
Often labeled “the biggest prison on earth,” Gaza depends on Israel and the West Bank for virtually all of its water and electricity and much of the raw material and spare parts its businesses need. If Israel, the West Bank, the Europeans and the United Nations let Hamas stew in its juices in Gaza, the Islamist movement might well collapse under the weight of the strip’s economic problems and social tensions.
Then he informs on Iran’s strategy,
[..] The Islamic Republic and Syria wish to kill all talk of a two-state solution for the Israel-Palestine conflict. They need Palestine to remain a cause with which to mobilize radical Islamists across national and sectarian divides.
Tehran and Damascus also believe that a military showdown with the United States and Israel is inevitable and that their best bet is to organize a pincer operation, from Lebanon through Hezbollah and from Gaza through Hamas, against the Jewish state.
So the west is yet to decide whether or when to lay seige to Gaza. It has already decided on the West Bank First Option.
Israel should simply say “no” to US pressure. (Yes, I know I keep saying this.)
If Israel will say no to US pressure, it will enhance the position of Israel’s supporters in the US. This would help us to better lobby on Israel’s behalf. Of course the lobbying on Israel’s behalf before the American government on the part of this Israel by this Israel supporter will never cease, as long as I’m alive. This lobbying by me will continue no matter what policy decisions Israel makes and no matter who they elect as leaders.
As an American supporter of Israel I must point out that at this time, Israel would be ill advised to rely on the American government for any thing. If US officials were smart, they would recognize that Israel and the US have the same enemies and would put their support fully with Israel. Unfortunately with a few exceptions the current people in DC and elsewhere in the US government are not very smart.
The sooner Israel starts to wean itself off of American support the better. Actaully such a move on the part of Israel would have the long range benefit of strengthening both Israel and the US. The US would get a completely self sufficent ally that would serve a s bull whark against Islamic Extremists and the Communists allies.
I agree with the general sentiments that the article seems to suggest. The islamists may have bitten off more than they can chew. This is the case with totalitarians whether they are Islamic, Russian, Chinese, or even Western. They are arrogant. This makes them prone to miscalculate by reaching beyond their capabilities.
Unfortunately American leaders may be to preoccupied with appeasement and fighting among themselves to capitalize on any mis steps by our enemies. I pray I’m wrong.
It has been said that the US over reached on Iraq. In this case, the US over reached beyond what it really wants to do. It did not over reach beyond its capabilities. This a BIG differnece from over reaching beyond one’s capabilities.
If the US and its allies want to win, time grows short. The current US military is under sized. If it does not get reinforcements soon, it may break under the strain. The results of this would be catastrophic for Western civilization.
If we will institute a draft, significant reinforcements could probably begin pouring into the region within about six months.
The current force structure can probably hold the line for another nine months to a year. The nine months to a year that the current US force structure can hold the line in Iraq is based on information gathered from people who have served in Iraq and the broader GWOT. I have no direct knowledge on this except what I have been told by people who have served there. These people are as pro-American as they come.
If Iran wants a military confrontation with the US they better move fast. In september the US will begin withdrawing its forces from Iraq. By the end of the summer of 2008, the US will be completely out of Iraq. The only thing that will alter this will be a “catastrophic development.” Perhapst he Iranians plan to conduct their direct attack on the Americans in Afghanistan. We won’t be there in significant numbers for much longer. They must be planning their direct attack on the American home land.
I assume they are planning on this show down with their own forces. Again, if they are going to do this in the Middle East, as the aritcle suggests, they better move fast. We won’t be there much longer.
As horrific as the confrontation would be, if the Iranians were to do this, we might be able to finally rally the American people to actively support the GWOT. As stated previously, tyrants have a tendency to over reach.
it is now 9:05 PM in Israel sat night new has just finished and this is the latest I can fathom from our news not CNN
yamit’s post is extremely depressing and most likely an altogether accurate assessment of the situation. Under these circumstances, it is inconceivable that Israel — led by Olmert — should give Bush and the Pals ANYTHING. Rather, the IDF should be planning an imminent invasion of Gaza. With every passing day, Hamas will grow stronger and more of a threat to Israel.
It is also high time to eject Olmert. One can question Bibi’s personal ethics as well as his ability to resist pressure from the US government at the negotiating table, but he will certainly execute a war plan better than the sap currently in office.
Egypt will allow aid to H if not openly through intermediaries. Hamas will use the tunnel option the Sinai option, hundreds of Stupid NGOs and the UN to make up any differences.EU will find some humanitarian excuses to fund them as well and the United States will prevent Israel from shutting down ports services, water , electricity and telecommunication services. They will continue to develope on their own rockets with longer ranges and bigger payloads. They will get other rockets like Katushas and Russian grads all smuggled in. They will hold back the new and big stuff till the right moment. My guess they are already planning and targeting our nuke reactor and facilities in Dimona its only 25-30 Km toss. They will find ways of transference know how to WB and little by lttle build up their strength so they can take on Fatah who inspite of CIA training, American weapons and heavier armaments cut an ran from Hamas. I guess they didnt get a copy of the script written for them by America and its genius general who is asking us to give abbas more bullets and arms. In this I have a suggestion. Since Abbas has over a hundred men currently under arms and we and the west as well as the Iranians and saudis have been paying for all this Show and Tell now for many years ; how about Israel offering Abbas and his grat big strong security apparatus free pasage through Israel to Gaza to take on Hamas. NOW! TDOAY! I bet he chickens out because all that payroll and make believe will be seen by all that the whole PA is Bull and There is nothing behind it ecxept a means of putting pressure on Israel while linning their pocketts with the bulk of most aid They receive.The world shpould pay attention especially Israel as Hamas ascendency to power and Hizbolla essentially regained if not exceeded pre war strength and renewed Syrian threat. I think the advanced schedule of Hamas and quick rearming of Hizbolla is thr prelude and prcursor of a coordinated attack once Iran declares Nuke ready and operational.