Peloni: Egypt has been given a long leash on which to act against its previous allies. I am particularly looking forward to seeing Trump return the relationship with Sisi to one based on reciprocity or more preferably to simply see the relationship being handled over to someone else altogether.
Jonathan Schanzer & Mariam Wahba | FDD | Jan 31, 2024
Hours after President Donald Trump revealed plans to ask Egypt to enable Palestinian refugees looking to escape the war to enter the Sinai Peninsula from Gaza, Cairo’s Foreign Ministry issued a firm rejection of the proposal. Cairo called any attempt to displace Palestinians an “infringement on inalienable rights” and warned such actions would threaten “regional stability, risk further conflict escalation, and undermine prospects for peace and coexistence among the region’s peoples.”
The rejection of Trump’s trial balloon is telling. In May 2024, Cairo joined South Africa in its spurious legal case at the International Court of Justice, accusing Israel of war crimes—without any evidence. Now, with Egypt’s rejection of Trump’s plan for the temporary relocation of Gazans, Cairo must explain itself. If it believes that there are war crimes occurring in Gaza, then it’s refusal to accept refugees means that it is a party to war crimes. If it doesn’t believe that there are war crimes occurring, then it must retract the accusation.
It’s unclear whether Egypt ever officially filed, as the foreign ministry never specified what its intervention would entail. Nevertheless, the prevailing perception across the Middle East is that Cairo had joined the lawfare campaign.
Apart from the legal conundrum Egypt now finds itself, there is now a dose of international intrigue. Trump’s first term marked a golden era for the U.S.-Egypt relationship. Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi was one of the first world leaders to congratulate President Trump on his 2016 victory, saying he looked forward to “boosting friendship and strategic relations” with Washington. Trump’s effusive praise of Sisi as a “fantastic guy” after their first meeting and his later declaration of Sisi as his “favorite dictator” reflected a unique personal bond. This relationship translated into financial support, with Cairo continuing to receive its substantial aid package while the White House refrained from addressing Sisi’s human rights abuses or authoritarian practices.
Trump viewed Sisi’s strongman leadership as an asset in counterterrorism efforts, particularly against ISIS in Sinai. Sisi’s Egypt was also seen as a bulwark against Islamism, as the Egyptian leader had ousted and imprisoned the Muslim Brotherhood. For Sisi, Trump’s support provided diplomatic legitimacy and financial aid, bolstering his domestic grip and enabling him to expand Egypt’s regional influence.
There is now ample reason to doubt Egypt’s counterterrorism commitment, particularly as it relates to Hamas. It is clear that Egypt looked the other way on Hamas smuggling to the Gaza Strip by way of the Sinai Peninsula. The tunnel and over-land smuggling that took place in the years leading up to 2023 clearly helped Hamas prepare for the Oct. 7 slaughter. The Biden administration largely shielded Egypt from criticism on this front. Israel did, too, for fear of destabilizing its oldest peace agreement in the Middle East. Trump’s call for Egypt to take in refugees may signal a change in strategy on the part of the United States. Israel’s position is still unclear. Meanwhile, Trump recently doubled down on his call for Egypt (and Jordan) to step up.
But the issues plaguing Egypt may run deeper. In 2023, leaked intelligence revealed Egypt’s secret plans to supply rockets to Russia in flagrant defiance of U.S. policy. In October 2024, at the height of Gaza ceasefire negotiations, Sisi skipped a key meeting with then-Secretary of State Antony Blinken to attend the BRICS summit in Russia, further testing Washington’s resolve. Meanwhile, Egypt has deepened ties with China, acquiring Chinese fighter jets and allowing anti-American, pro-Chinese Communist Party propaganda to seep into state institutions. Trump, who values loyalty, may see Cairo’s obvious hedging as a betrayal.
A deepening economic crisis further complicates matters. Since Sisi came to power, he has presided over soaring inflation, crippling debt, and skyrocketing unemployment. Domestic dissatisfaction is high, and social unrest looms. On the one hand, this might open the door for American aid to buy renewed Egyptian loyalty. However, Cairo may not be open to that. Egypt has already rejected money from Gulf States to help solve the Gaza refugee crisis and to isolate Hamas.
Instead, to deflect domestic frustrations, Cairo has resorted to vitriolic anti-American and anti-Israeli rhetoric, casting Sisi as a defender of Arab interests and the Palestinian cause. This is classic Arab nationalist rhetoric, but at times embraces Islamist talking points that appeal to that sector of Egypt’s burgeoning population. This may be Sisi’s strategy to appeal to the restive Egyptian street and prevent any further damage to his carefully cultivated domestic persona. However, this is not likely to play well with the incoming Trump administration.
It is entirely unclear whether this previously cozy relationship will become transactional—or frosty. The U.S.-Egypt relationship is undeniably important. But what happens in Gaza will decidedly not stay in Gaza. Cairo’s unhelpful position may ultimately prompt a reassessment of its value.
Jonathan Schanzer is senior vice president for research at Foundation for Defense of Democracies, where Mariam Wahba is a Research Analyst.
I adore Trump for his public statements, to move the Gazans to Egypt and Jordan. What a simple and brilliant move. With just uttering those words, he let the world know and Egypt and Jordan in particular, exactly where the US stands. Bibi must have been smiling broadly when he heard Trump say that. Perhaps this was already mutually agreed to by both men as part of the hostage deal.
In any case, that is ultimately the best solution. Get them out of there so Israel can finally mop up Hamas in Gaza. It’s hard to kill every Hamasnik when they hide amongst millions of their people.
As for Sisi, he’s no friend to Israel and never has been. He has much blood on his hands for letting Hamas get away with murder by letting them use the Rafa entrance from Egypt to transfer weapons, aid and terrorists and getting rich (via bribes) in the process. Hopefully Trump will simply demand that both countries take in the Gazans or else the financial and military aid will stop dead. In fact if I was Trump, I’d cease the aid right now.