A briefing by Michael J. Totten
Mr. Totten began his talk by pointing out that even though Lebanon and Iraq have been the most unstable countries in the Middle East in recent years, there has been a conspicuous lack of protests and unrest in both nations during the “Arab Spring.” Since the 1970s, Lebanon has been the place where the Middle East fights its wars, with a population split of around a third Shi’i, a third Sunni, and another third Christian. He provided context and described the situation in Lebanon as follows:
The civil war that began in the mid 1970s was sparked by the presence of the PLO, which set up a base in south Lebanon with the approval of the Sunnis to use as a launching pad against Israel. Seeing no government response to rein in the PLO, the Christians formed their own militias to fight the Palestinian militants.
Following the Israeli invasion of Lebanon in 1982 to remove the PLO and support the Christian militias, Iran helped create Hezbollah, with Syrian support, to fight Israel’s forces in Lebanon and act as a check against the government in Beirut. An 18-year insurgency campaign ensued, with Israel withdrawing abruptly in 2000 hoping that the Lebanese Army would constrain Hezbollah.
However, a vacuum then emerged in the south, allowing Hezbollah to form a state within a state. The group now has twice as many rockets as it had in 2006, can easily defeat the Lebanese Army in a military confrontation, and is capable of targeting all of Israel.
Consequently, it is likely that an Israeli pre-emptive strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities will trigger an attack on Israel by Hezbollah, and if the U.S. becomes involved, Iran may fire at American bases in Iraq, Afghanistan and the Persian Gulf, thus leading to a full-scale regional war. Lebanon would therefore be the epicenter of this war—hence the country’s importance today despite its small size.
Asked about Hezbollah’s agenda in Lebanon, Mr. Totten responded that the group would set up an Iranian-style regime if it could, but knows that in practice such a goal is not achievable because of the opposition it would arouse from Sunnis, Christians, and even Shi’a who support Hezbollah purely for sectarian reasons. Mr. Totten concluded that the U.S. must do everything it can, short of war, to oppose Iranian and Syrian interests in Lebanon and elsewhere in the Middle East.
Summary written by MEF intern Aymenn Jawad Al-Tamimi.
Why Lebanon matters…Why Syria matters, why all the states around Israel matter…
As an Israeli I am sorry to say that I look at all of them with Israeli eyes and for those eyes they matter because of what they did to Israel and what they are threatening to still do to Israel with their great many rockets and all the rest of their destructive weapons. As long as they are enemy-states nothing else is of the slightest importance to the eyes mentioned.
Given the scenario that Hezbollah attacks Israel, Israel should destroy their facilities in southern Lebanon after warning Lebanese to head to the north part of the country. At the same time focus weapons on Iran. The US and Western countries will be beside Israel on this, because if a full blown war starts, all will be lost. I bet the Arabs would be willing to join this effort, because until it is done, there’s no real peace for anyone. I read the U.S. already has forces on three sides of Iran. Maybe it’s four sides because of U.S. submarines in the Gulf.
The news out of Iran is that Ahmadinejad and the Ayatollah are at each others throats over cabinet appointees. I have a feeling that Amadinejad would like to steer the country more to the greater glories of Persia rather than to its religious moorings. Persia has a magnificent ancient history, but you wouldn’t know it from their leaders of today.
Sunnis and Shias use Christians to fight Israel.
The goal of the Muslims is to get rid of the Christians/Druzes and blame Israel as the reason why the Christians are being kicked-out of the ME.
The rest of the world (mainly the West) is predictably coward enough to say nothing about this.
Well, if we cite the “experts” then most of them say that countries such as Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Jordan and other sunny Arab countries are actually more worried of a nuclear Iran than they are worried about Israel. This means that if Israel strikes Iran, they will for sure condemn it, but none of them will do more than that… With a weak Iran, and an even weaker Syria, I don’t see the great damage Lebanon can do to Israel. Maybe this will even lead to a rise of the more pro-western powers in Lebanon, such as the mentioned Christians, Druze, and even Shi’ites who used to support Israel through the SLA (South Lebanon Army). In Lebanon there is one rule: Support the strongest!
…but then again: You are right. Anybody who claims he can predict anything in the Middle East is a fool, and I don’t want to be considered one of them!
Is he talking about the U.S. under its’ present leadership? Is he appealing to a president that has done more that any other president to destabilize the Middle East? Is he forgetting that Bashar al-Assad is a ‘reformer’ according to our illustrious state department? Is he forgetting that one man’s genocide is another man’s legitimate resistance?
I hate reality as much as the next gal, but to expect President Obama to do anything a sane minded person would do is to pretend that all in well with America’s present foreign policy. Even liberal US Defense Secretary Robert Gates knows that President Obama is taking the U.S. to places it has never gone before. Past presidents have made mistakes, but we have never had an agenda that was as anti-American interests as we have now.
Taking reality into account, Michael Totten, would you like to rethink your advise? I thought so.
No offense, Ted, but if I want information on Lebanon, I go to Tony Badran or Michael Young. The more I know about Lebanon, the more I realize how complicated it is.
Anyone that tries to predict the future in the Middle East in general, and Lebanon in particular, more often that not, find themselves playing the fool.
How many people tried to predict what would happen when the Special Tribunal for Lebanon came out with its report? The Special Tribunal was set up to identify and try those involved in the Rafik Hariri assassination. This was going to cause the Hizbollah no end of headaches and maybe even its demise. We have been waiting 28 months for that report (since March 1, 2009). Since Lebanon has changed significantly since 2009, the predictions have become moot.
Michael Totten has been to Lebanon many times and seen the Hezbollah up close and personal. That does not make him an expert. In fact, if you read the essays of the experts, you find out in a hurry that Lebanon’s very instability makes it impossible to predict anything with any degree of accuracy. Who’s in and who’s out changes almost daily.
It seems that as Michael Totten’s star has risen, his liberal views have followed. The question I always wanted to ask him was, ‘How come, in a country filled with loyal Israelis, the only guides and historians he ever used were people that thought the muslims have as much right to Israel as the Jews?’ I guess it is like my grandmother used to say, ‘Birds of a feather, flock together’.
Since any so-called expert can venture an opinion, here is mine.
To paraphrase my best bud, Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman, if Lebanon attacks Israel for any reason, it will lose within hours. Syria will not attack Israel despite Bashar al-Assad’s bellicose rhetoric because he is afraid of Israel and Lieberman. If the new Egyptian government attacks Israel for any reason, they will find out why Muhammad Hosni Sayyid Mubarak was willing to keep a cold peace towards a county he hated. Abdullah II bin al-Hussein of Jordan will not attack for the same reason.
So many people are happy to predict Israel’s demise. The Hezbollah has lots and lots of rockets, they say. So what?, I say. Put an islamic soldier behind any weaponry, and chances are they will be about as effective as the hamas. Most everyone seems to think that if Iran is attacked by Israel, then all the surrounding nations including Lebanon and Syria will pounce. I see the situation differently. If Iran falls these counties will have lost their most important supporter. They will also see that Israel still has the same old chutzpah it made famous. They will become very quiet and very timid. After all, who knows what is in the mind of an Israeli? They just might get it into their heads to avenge all the innocent Jewish blood that has been spilled because of these regimes. Who wants that?