Professor says that right bloc more viable, but Netanyahu may need to reach out to Labor anyway to save his spot as Likud head.
Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu might be fighting for his political life, as the Likud campaign ramps up late in the game to fight off the Zionist Camp’s polls advantage. If Likud does not lead the next coalition, or at the very least make it into a national unity government, questions will center around the viability of Netanyahu as the party’s leader in an era in which personalities dominate election campaigns.
Professor Shmuel Sandler of the Begin-Sadat Center for Strategic Studies tellsArutz Sheva he is not convinced that Likud is facing the end of its run, but agrees that Netanyahu has faced an enormous ad-hominem campaign.
“The campaign against him is a very personal one. I would guess that is what Herzog’s advisers went for. There are a lot of unprecedented, external resources being pitted against him.”
This goes along with Netanyahu’s own argument throughout his campaign that he is the target of a major Israeli media campaign, as well as the target of NGOs who are receiving funds from abroad like V15. His personality, or specifically his likeability, might be vulnerable in the eyes of the Zionist Camp’s campaign managers.
There is evidence of this also in the controversial figure he has cut among right-wing voters who accuse him of being deliberately ambiguous about whether or not he supports a two-state solution, a position for which he voiced support in his 2009 Bar Ilan speech.
Netanyahu himself said Sunday night in an interview with Arutz Sheva: “I think that was said at a time when the Middle East was in a different place…but right now the Middle East has changed with an Islamist Winter that is sweeping the entire area.”
The two-state solution might also be the major reason the Likud avoided puttingout a full platform this year, in order to maintain ambiguity ahead of building a coalition.
According to Sandler, “the lack of platform didn’t help him. He didn’t want the two-state issue to come up. In his party, it is problematic. He would have to put it one way or the other, and while he has committed himself to two states, his party has not.”
Sandler does give Netanyahu the benefit of the doubt to some degree, mainly because it was American pressure that finally produced the Bar Ilan Speech when he famously (or infamously) declared his support for a Palestinian state.
On the question of whether or not Netanyahu will be able to survive a leadership challenge, should Likud not lead the next government, or at least reach a national unity deal with the Zionist Camp, Professor Sandler thought it was far too early to tell what would happen.
Despite the beginnings of speculation on who is preparing to make a putsch for the party leadership if Netanyahu starts the next Knesset off as the leader of the opposition, Professor Sandler is not convinced that Netanyahu has lost the election just yet.
“The Left will still have a very hard time achieving a coalition,” he notes. “There are too many variables between Yesh Atid and the haredi parties; between Meretz and (Yisrael) Beytenu. The right still has the advantage in pulling together a coalition.”
In the end, Professor Sandler feels that despite the domestic focus of the campaign, Netanyahu is going to have to enter into a national unity government at this point – even though Netanyahu has directly rejected that possibility.
“I think he will go for a national unity government – that’s how I see it. If he hasBuji (Labor head Yitzhak Herzog) on his side it will be easier to face the pressures that are going to come our way.”
What he envisions might resemble the standard politics of the past, where Shas and United Torah Judaism are not “betrayed” by Netanyahu and some of the reforms pushed through in the previous government will have to be rolled back, even if that just means some semantic changes to the laws.
Much still remains to be seen, but Likud will face tough decisions in the near future on how to present itself, as a party or with its leader. Likud might still have to moderate its image in the future if the Prime Minister is dethroned on Tuesday.
Gideon Sa’ar has made some appearances to push the Likud campaign, fueling the idea he might be preparing to contest Netanyahu’s chair.
But if there is a national unity administration, Sandler feels that will be enough to shield Netanyahu from an internal Likud onslaught.
“If he can’t form any government without going for a national unity government, then he is going to offer Buji to join the new cabinet on his terms,” said Netanyahu. “He will be protected from a leadership challenge.”
Its a strange thing to say but I feel safe in G-d’s hands.
Whatever happens today, life goes on.
@ yamit82:
As SHmuel says: as long as the “system” is what it is, the Israeli voter has a choice between : 1) Being screwed (by voting Left) 2) Being possibly screwed (if the Right choses to govern with the Left).
Talk about choice. I vote for Mashiach Tzidkenu. 🙂
@ Avigail:
@ SHmuel HaLevi 2:
Everybody know one of these sayings but how many take them to heart????
“fool me once shame on you, fool me twice shame on me”
For Who deceives me once, God forgive him; if twice, God forgive him; but if thrice, God forgive him, but not me, because I could not beware.
[1611 Tarlton’s Jests (1844) 11]
The Italians having a Proverb, He that deceives me Once, it’s his Fault; but Twice it is my fault.
[1650 A. Welldon Secret History of King James I (1690) 88]
He that deceives me once, it is his faul[t]; if twice, it is mine.
[1659 N. R. Proverbs English, French, Dutch, Italian & Spanish 54]
He that deceives me once, shame fall him; if he deceives me twice, shame fall me.’
[2002 P. Lovesey Diamond Dust xxx. 297]
@ Avigail:
Netanyahu is not trustworthy so he could try going with Hertzog, but not Livni. His government will not last long if he does.
@ SHmuel HaLevi 2:
Man, I agree with everything you wrote but what’s your take? He’s gonna go with the Left again?
I’m asking because figures show he really doesn’t have to…
(for the record I don’t trust him a bit…)
apparently only perks, allowances and draft evasion are worth voting for.
Although BB says he wont divide Jerusalem but there is talk of Jerusalem operating as a “united” municipality under 2 sovereignties; hence such a solution could be said to satisfy “no dividing”.
Also, on west bank settlements BB talks of not forcing settlers to leave like in Gaza but there is talk of allowing outlying settlements to remain under the pals which would technically satisfy the statement.
BB might also have a united jerusalem under 2 sovereignties or give some of Jerusalem to arabs, or expand the wakf compound to include a pal capitol. He is vague.
BB has not built in isolated settlements, only the major blocks which labor would also keep.
they appear close in my view, discounting rhetoric.
Kulanu sounds like dividing Jerusalem to me
actually, BB’s words could be satisfied under the labor plan plus further left.
Only BY and further right call for land for Jews and a clear maintaining of the annexation and sovereignty of Jerusalem under Israeli soveriegnty and rule..
@ Avigail:
Netanyahu is the only viable 22 months candidate. That says it all. A dreadful setting it is.
The alternatve to him is total disaster, complete disaster.
Since 2002 we tried to inform our people that the Israeli so called “demokratiahhhh” was nothing but a front for a small group of 18 families and 300 co travelers to them to use others for their sole benefit. The leadership since Oslo is a farce at best.
The net results is 15000 maimed, nearly 1800 murdered, many irresolute military flops which are on record plus innumerable betrayals, retreats, bribery episodes, allowances to foreign powers to usurp our Heritage, etc.
The system or combina as it is known here by name, MUST be dismantled and all of those within, removed from all positions of influence, all of that followed by true FREE elections for a New Jewish National Assembly from which orders for the popular election of Judges, Sheriffs, military defense leaders, education leadership, etc, shall be issued.
The present system must be disbanded, There is no fix for it.
@ SHmuel HaLevi 2:
OK dear SHmuel, what do you mean? He’s going with the Left or not? We are soooooo screwed.
We know from internal contacts in the Likud that Netanyahu will not have free hand to move, shop around unless if it is to chew down and release the remains as he did with Lieberman, Livni’s group which is now non existent, Lapid who lost a number of seats, and later Mr. Feiglin who was set aside completely.