T. Belman. On Feb 16/16, Alexander Maistrovoy and I authored Contemplating a US-Russia Alliance. In it, we suggested the same thing and more. Langfan also sees Russia as a potential ally.
Putin is hinting at a Syrian Euphrates partition – and beyond. This is a positive plan that the USA should join.
By Mark Langfan, INN
On February 17, 2018, in my article, “Putin: Grand Deal Now, or Syrian Bust,” I outlined a simple formula for a Grand Bargain between the United States and Russia.
The terms were simple,
1) partition of Syria based on the Euphrates River, Russian/Assad to the West, American/Kurdish/Sunni to the East, and
2) Russia’s formal acquisition of Crimea/Eastern Ukraine with a extraterritorial link to Transnistria with Russia’s formal agreement that this is the “dessert and not an appetizer.”
On April 20, 2018, Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov hinted at a major tectonic policy shift when he told Germany’s Deutsche Welle that, “We [Russia] don’t know how the situation is going to develop on the question of whether it is possible to keep Syria as a single country.”
But the earthquake happened just recently, when the Russian Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Maria Zakharova, stated “In light of President Trump’s promise to pull out from Syria “very soon,” there are high risks of the “caliphate” re-appearing in the Trans-Euphrates region as was the case in Iraq when ISIS was actually created there in 2011 after US troops withdrew from that country.”
That statement seems to say that Putin now appears to see American military Syrian presence east of the Euphrates River as a vital component of Russia’s ability to successfully resolve the Syrian file. With this Russian opening for a Grand Bargain, President Trump should quickly close the Crimean/Eastern Ukraine leg of the deal, and add Russian agreement to the denuclearization of North Korea and stabilization of Afghanistan into the bargain.
There are many factors pointing to the feasibility of this a pproach:
While Russia has lately exhibited some rather nasty ravanchistic tendencies and delusions of empire’s past, compared to the former Soviet Union, it is still fairly modest. One would have to expect some type of counter-reaction to the cataclysmic implosion of the former Soviet Empire. If Putin’s reacquisition of territory is delimited to Crimea, some of Eastern Russian-speaking Ukraine and a link to Transnistria, the world will have gotten off cheaply.
On March 27, 2018, US SecDef James Mattis stated to reporters, “Russia has the potential to be a partner with Europe. Its fortunes are married to Europe, if it sees its way forward. And I think that, right now, we have to recognize that they’ve chosen to seek a different relationship with the NATO nations.” SecDef Mattis is no Russia-lover. But, he is 100% accurate: Russia’s fortunes are married to Europe, and the United States. Russia’s true ally is to Western Civilization, not to a neo-Safavidic Iranian-Persian empire spanning from East Iran through to the Syria and Lebanon. Iran is its mortal enemy in the middle-to-long term.
As the Russian FM Spokesperson stated, Russia now recognizes it needs America east of the Euphrates River to both tactically annihilate ISIS, and to strategically block Iran from spanning Mesopotamia with all the follow-on catastrophe that a Neo-Safavidic Empire would bring both Russia and the West. Russia’s de facto green-light for Israel to lay waste to Iranian forces is just one facet of Russia’s new-found realization that Iran is its true enemy in Syria.
A Russian/American peaceful partition of Syria may energize dramatic events in Iraq which foretell an Arab uprising against the neo-colonializing Iranian Safavidic Islamo-Fascists. Such a positive trend for Iraq is in the strategic interests of both Russia and the United States.
And, while Trump and Putin are at it, they can join forces to resolve the North Korean and Afghanistan lingering 20th century problems. Russia’s absence from the North Korean peace talks isn’t a good omen for the talks. It was actually Russia that started the whole crazy division of Korea in the first place. The least Russia can do now is help ensure the removal of North Korea’s nukes that if not, would likely find their way into Iran’s hands. North Korean nukes in Iran’s hands would be in Russia’s worst strategic interests.
Russia is our mortal enemy only on TV, in the movies and the FBI. Russians are not the ones driving trucks and killing dozens of people while yelling Islamic supremacy. In real life, they are a bare-knuckled geo-strategic competitor that with whom we must find common cause and work to eliminate unnecessary fissures. Partitioning Syria, and resolving the Crimean/Ukraine issue are small steps for a greater and more peaceful world future.
The writer is Chairman of Americans for a Safe Israel (AFSI) and specializes in security issues, has created an original educational 3d Topographic Map System of Israel to facilitate clear understanding of the dangers facing Israel and its water supply. It has been studied by US lawmakers and can be seen at www.marklangfan.com.
@ vivarto:
HI, Vivarto
I agree with you here, more than I agree with Ted. We do have some business in Ukraine, but not much. For the most part, defeating Russian interests in Ukraine greatly benefits Germany but pretty much just adds a burden to the US — reminiscent of the breakup of Yugoslavia, where we were suckered into a war but Germany got most of the benefits.
Ted proposes inclusion of the Ukrainian problem in an overall peace deal with Russia. Here again, I am reminded of history: of the illegal conquest of eastern Poland and NE Prussia by Russia, and of Silesia and Pomerania by Poland. The US did not recognize the facts on the ground until Poland, Russia and Germany finally worked the matter out themselves. The same goes for Ukraine: They need to negotiate with Russia on their own. Until that successfully happens, we can rcognize or not recognize whatever borders we please.
The situation in Ukraine is not a Russian power grab. The West, especially Germany, interfered with Ukrainian internal politics as part of a plan to incorporate Ukraine into NATO and the EU. This was in violation of previous agreements with Russia. It’s reminiscent of “The Great Game” conflict between Britain and Russia, in places like Iran, Afghanistan and Tibet. Ultimately, the winners were the ayatollahs, the Taliban and Red China, after both Russia and Britain exhausted themselves with endless wars.
I share with Ted an eagerness to see the Ukraine situation “solved”. Where I disagree with him, is in his thinking we should link that conflict with Syria.
In Syria, by the way, the “Euphrates border” between Russian and American spheres of influence is not a premanent solution. It gives the US no land access to our Syrian Kurdish allies; and will never satisfy our Turkish frenemies, much less Bashar al-Assad. I think the best solution there, is simply a war in which Israel kicks the Iranians out of Syria. The Turks will probably get involved; but Israel’s response should be like Clint Eastwood’s character, Dirty Harry: “Go ahead. Make my day.”
I don’t think we should interfere in Russian conflict with Ukraine.
I don’t think we should take sides. Leave them alone.
It is none of the US business to defend Ukraine from Russia.