Netanyahu’s Likud party won 32 seats and would like to keep at least half of the ministerial portfolios, but his allies collectively won the same amount of seats and are demanding several key positions within the new government
As Benjamin Netanyahu begins negotiations to form his next coalition, he will have to balance between demands of his ultra-Orthodox and far-right allies.
One challenge for Netanyahu is that while his Likud party won 32 seats, the other potential members of the coalition – Shas, United Torah Judaism and Religious Zionism – collectively won a similar number of seats, making it difficult for Likud to insist on holding senior government portfolios.
With preliminary talks are beginning on Sunday, what could Netanyahu’s next government look like, and what demands are on the table?
Likud
Benjamin Netanyahu’s party hopes that overall, the government will include 30 ministers, and that of them, 15 will come from Likud.
One of the most significant issues in the last election campaign was the question of the criminal cases against Netanyahu. The incoming prime minister wants his party to hold the Justice Ministry, and plans to appoint Yariv Levin to the position. Levin has been one of the top critics of the Israeli legal system, and his appointment will signal a drastic change in the balance of power between the judiciary and the Knesset, potentially impacting the continuation of the Netanyahu trial.
Amir Ohana, the only openly gay member of the 64-member ruling coalition, has been mentioned as a top candidate to head the foreign ministry. Such an appointment could serve the government in attempting to deflect world attention from the policies of the far-right government, which have Arabs, the LGBTQ community, and non-Orthodox Jews in the crosshairs.
One complicating factor, though, could be Ohana’s involvement in the Meron disaster two years ago, which happened under his watch as Public Security Minister. A governmental commission of inquiry has sent Ohana a warning letter that it is examining his actions in the lead-up to Israel’s worst civilian disaster, and this could have an impact on his next appointment.
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A three-way tug-of-war between Likud lawmakers Israel Katz, Eli Cohen and Nir Barakat is also taking shape over control of the Finance Ministry, but all three could end up empty-handed if Netanyahu decides to hand that ministry to a different party.
Netanyahu loyalist Miri Regev, one of only eight women who are part of the new coalition, is expected to take the mantle of the Transportation Ministry, while another of Netanyahu’s steadfast supporters, Miki Zohar, is favored to become the culture and sports minister.
Religious Zionism
The far-right slate comprised of three parties – Bezalel Smotrich’s homonymous party, Itamar Ben-Gvir’s Otzma Yehudit and the anti-gay Noam party – have announced that they will conduct their negotiations with Netanyahu as a unified bloc, and will only enter the government together once everyone has a portfolio.
Ben-Gvir, the poster boy for the insurgent movement, has repeatedly expressed his desire to become Public Security Minister. If that were to happen, Ben-Gvir would be in charge of the same police that over the years conducted investigations into his own actions. The police commissioner last year blamed Ben-Gvir for inciting violence – soon the far-right provocateur could be his boss.
Smotrich and Ben-Gvir in Sderot this past October.Credit: Eliyahu Hershkovitz
Smotrich, meanwhile, has his eyes set on the Defense Ministry, but Netanyahu wants to avoid handing it to him and would prefer to see him in the Education Ministry, so that Defense could stay in the hands of Likud.
Having previously served as transportation minister, Smotrich could also demand the portfolio for his party again, giving him the power to ensure that public transportation does not operate on Shabbat and can be improved for settlers in the West Bank.
Shas
Arye Dery’s Sephardic ultra-Orthodox party comes into the negotiations with a strengthened hand after it gained two extra seats in the election, winning a double-digit number of seats for the first time since 2012. Dery, one of Netanyahu’s staunchest allies, looks set to win four portfolios for his party, and is himself likely to return to the Interior Ministry.
The party is also keen on the Religious Services Ministry, although their wish could meet resistance from Religious Zionism. The position is especially sought after, as any incoming minister would be responsible for appointing chief rabbis in eight months time.
United Torah Judaism
The party’s new leader, Yitzhak Goldknopf, is likely to demand the Construction and Housing Ministry, and the party is slated to receive another key portfolio. Moshe Gafni, meanwhile, is set to head the Knesset’s Finance Committee.
One of the priorities for Goldknopf is strengthening the position of deputy ministers. While UTJ is not expected to pursue the education ministry portfolio itself, the party is looking to enact legislation to ensure that a deputy in the ministry could have free rein over education in the ultra-Orthodox community, where most students don’t learn math, English and science.
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