What is the future of Israel?

By Walter E. Block

By Survey of Israel – This map is available from Eran Laor Cartographic Collection of the National Library of Israel. link to the source:Israel map of the cease fire lines, Public Domain

First, let us start off with the case for pessimism. Teenaged and even younger Palestinian boys are often pictured walking through the rubble that is now Gaza, seething with hatred against Israel, vowing to get even with this supposed colonialist, imperialist, genocidal, land-stealing “entity” when they get a little bit older.

Then, too, Israel is in the process of releasing almost 2000 Palestinian prisoners, a significant number of them found guilty of murdering Israelis. When they see the devastation wrought by Israel on Gaza, they, too, will become even more determined to see a Palestinian state stretching from the “river to the sea” that is, the utter annihilation of the Jewish State.

For example, one commentator writes: “War on Gaza: Why Palestinian teenagers are driven to battle.” The widespread claim is that released Palestinian prisoners will make war against Israel in the future. For example, Palestinians Wael Mishah and Tariq Daoud, both 18 years old, were released in a prisoner exchange in November, 2023. Both have recently been killed by the IDF while they were attacking Israeli installations and people.

Then there is that fact that many Israelis have emigrated from that country, almost 83,000 in 2024. If this keeps up, and exacerbates under the continual onslaught provided by the terrorists, it can spell the death knell for the Jewish state. The long run prognostication for this nation is not a good one, at least not on the basis of this consideration.

Before moving to the case for optimism and future peace, let us clear up one horrific misunderstanding. Genocide is the purposeful murder of women and children and other helpless civilians. Which group aims to slaughter such non-combatants? Hamas, of course. That is precisely what they did on that day of infamy, October 7, 2023. Killing music festival attendees certainly counts as a paradigm case in this regard.

But did not Israel follow suit, disproportionately if Hamas statistics can be relied upon? No. The IDF throws leaflets at civilians, not bombs or bullets. Why, then, these deaths? The are regrettable collateral damage, not genocide. The source of these calamities is not Israel, but Hamas. They use their own people, the Gazans, as shields. They place rocket launchers in hospitals, schools, Mosques. They hide behind the skirts of women. Israel is supposed to allow them to function unscathed? That would be national suicide.

Now for the case for optimism and peace.

It is said that a picture says 1000 words. Yes, truly, but which words? We are led to interpret those pictures of young Palestinians walking through the Gazan rubble as seeking revenge. But an entirely different interpretation is also possible: “Wow, those Israelis sure kicked our butt. Maybe it is not such a great idea to stick our fingers on a hot stove, and then complain about being burned.” Ditto for the newly released prisoners when they witness the devastation Israel has imposed on this enclave.

It is said that those ignorant of history are doomed to repeat it, to their detriment. Let us then take a peek at a bit of history. There were teenaged German and Japanese boys who survived the defeat of their countries in 1945. What lesson did they learn from these losses? Did they resolve to get even with the US and its allies? Not a bit of it. They learned an entirely different lesson. Peace now reigns between the former Axis and Allies powers.

Who is to say that this will not be the lesson learned by these teenagers and by the prisoners now in the process of being released from Israeli jails. Only time will tell.

My own forecast is that there will indeed be another attack on Israel by these disgruntled losers. Perhaps in 4-5 years, after Donald Trump is no longer in office. However, by that time, Israel will have developed not only a world leading computer industry, but one of munitions too. No longer will it be dependent on other countries for its defense. This future Palestinian invasion (along with Iran and all its proxies) will be the very last time Israel is attacked by anyone. For the next time, there will be no more “nice-guy” IDF. Unencumbered by anything like the Biden Administration, the very powerful Israeli military will make short work of its enemies. That will be the very last time it is ever attacked.

The Arabs are slow learners. But, eventually, with enough of the stick instead of the continual carrot, they will learn their lesson and embrace peace.

As for the loss of Israeli population due to emigration, all I can say is thank God for the Haredim. They have gigantic families and are implacably devoted to the future of Israel, by staying put, right where they are. Hopefully, this business of them adamantly opposed to joining the IDF, can be resolved. With good will on both side of this issue, anything is possible.