By Ted Belman
During World War I, (May 1916), Britain and France entered the Sykes-Picot Agreement which was a secret convention, with the assent of imperial Russia, for the dismemberment of the Ottoman Empire.
They agreed that
1) Russia would acquire Armenian provinces and some Kurdish territory,
2) France would acquire Lebanon and much of present day Syria and
3) Great Britain would get southern Mesopotamia, including Bagdad and the Mediterranean ports of Haifa and Akko (Acre)
4) Between the French and British acquisitions there would be a confederation of Arab states or a single independent Arab state divided into British and French spheres of influence,
5) Alexandretta should be a free port and
6) Palestine, because of its holy places, should be under an international regime.
Subsequently Great Britain published the Balfour Declaration in 1917 in which they declared they favoured the creation of a Jewish homeland in Palestine. Finally, in 1919 the San Remo Resolution made additional changes which paved the way for Mandates to be set up for Lebanon/Syria, Palestine, and for what became Iraq and what became Saudi Arabia.
But the tinkering wasn’t done yet. Just before signing the Palestine Mandate in 1922, they removed Trans-Jordan from the potential Jewish home.
It is generally acknowledged that they were guided by the wrong criteria in dividing the Ottoman Empire. Here we are 100 years later and the chickens have come home to roost. The former Ottoman Empire is falling apart.
After 8 years of war in Syria, and over 500,000 deaths, and 100 years of war in Israel, the US has the opportunity to correct the mistakes of the past which affect Syria, Iraq and Israel.
They can undo all the mistakes made in the Palestine Mandate and return to its original intent. That would involve, recognizing Israel sovereignty over all lands to the west of the Jordan River and recognizing Arab Palestinian sovereignty in Jordan.
As for Syria, Trump had to enforce his red line. This doesn’t mean he should have bombed the hell out of Assad’s military. But bomb he did. Perhaps the US could now punish them by dictating to them a US preferred solution for Syria. It should do or propose the following:
- The US should remain in the territory it now controls namely all lands to the east of the Euphrates and some to the west namely around Manji. This amounts to 30% of Syria and contains 70% of her oil reserves.
- While there she should assist the inhabitants, mainly Kurds and other minorities, to develop governing institutions and an army for self-defense.
- They should accept the same for the Alawites in the territories they control in Western Syria to the Mediterranean. Assad can continue to lead them and Russia can keep their port and airbase so long as Assad agrees which he no doubt will.
- As for the remaining 50% of Syria, it should be reserved for the Sunnis. In order to stabilize it and suppress the re-emergence of ISIS, Saudi Arabia should be put in charge with the assistance of Jordan and Egypt.
- In effect Syria would be divided into three Mandates in which the US, Russia and Saudi Arabia respectively are the Mandate powers. These powers would be responsible to provide the money needed to rebuild their mandated lands. Over time these Mandates could become independent and federalize if they so choose.
- Iran and Turkey must be removed from Syria and Hezbollah must be restricted to the Alawite Mandate.
- Iraq could also join such a federation to enable it to escape the clutches of Iran. This is so even though Iraq is 60% Shiite. For greater stability Iraq could become a federated state in which the Kurds continue with their autonomy and with the Sunnis being granted a similar autonomy. The oil wealth should be shared on a per capita basis.
- Finally, Hezbollah should be disarmed so they can’t threaten Israel or Lebanon again.
Under American leadership, the mistakes made by Britain and France in the disposition of the Ottoman territories after WWI could be corrected for the good of all.
@ Bear Klein:
This is what I’ve been advocating, and I sincerely hope it’s a fact.
@ Bear Klein:
They weren’t always submissive. But Assad and the Alawites had all thre military and govy. conrol which was the most important factor. They more or less just lived in the Syrian State under Hafeez al Assad, until the Muslim Brotherhood started something, or Assad had his nose put out of joint by something. Anyway, Assad besieged Hama, full of Sunnis, for several months and the reports say that he destroyed a large part of the city, killing anything from 2,000 to 40,000, mostly civilians. I lived in Israel then, and the figure of “over 20,000” was always used. Since then they have been acquiescent, as the State, under Bashar more or less just plugged along……until this unexpected, originally minor protest, which developed into a full -fledged uprising….and progressed into a drawn out brutal civil war, pulling in some Great Powers..
With all the different power plays, and high tensions of all parties fully aroused, no one knows how it will eventually play out. Nor will we know, even if there are Peace Treaties signed, whether they’ll be kept. Nothing is certain, and the continued presence of the dominant Powers, whilst no doubt resented by every “good” Muslim, is vital. When dealing with Arabs, nothing is certain….except treachery and death.
They are not competing for the “peace of Syria” they are jockeying for strategic advantageous positions in the area which will be vital in forthcoming days, months years. And I believe it’s all wrapped around the attempted hegemony of Iran and the steady broadening of Russia in trying to recover former Soviet possessions. The more they expand, the larger a role they play on the world stage later.
The fact that Israel stands in the way of all this, and has the most powerful ally of all, makes every potential move more risky, and with the numerous “red lines” drawn by several participants, spontaneous open warfare could erupt that would dwarf the Syrian Civil War.
The “powder-keg”…appellation, once synonymous with The Balkans, is now firmly in the Middle East, centered in Syria.
Just my opinion.
@ Bear Klein:
The USA have more soliders on the ground in Syria than advertised. The French are agumenting this. The USA and Kurds will be challenged again by the Russian contrators (Wagner), Syrians, and Hezbollah.
@ Hugo Schmidt-Fischer:
No. that is not what I envisage.
The Alawites already have their leader. So do the Kurds and the Syrian Democratic Group who partnered with them. They will organize their territory as they see fit. The US will be there for military and financial support.
As I indicated , the Sunni State will be managed by Saudi Arabia, Jordan and Egypt as all these Sunnis see fit.
@ Edgar G.:
Edgar the Sunnis were submissive to the minority before the war. They will either leave or be submissive unless they have the power to carry on the war. They maybe able to carry on to a limited degree guerilla actions but fleged war unless they can some new help looks on the tail end. By the way there is NO doubt they have use Chlorine gas. The question is whether is they have also used Sarin. They are not usely used together. There appears to be some
testing done they also used sarin.
The goal is not for the superpowers to return and dominate the Middle East. 19th century’s colonialism’s time has come to pass. The superpowers were not terribly good at it.
Moreover, the US performance during the last three quarters of a century was not impressive. Americans did not prevail in Korea, the Bay of Pigs or in Vietnam. They made a mess of Iraq, Libya and Egypt. Confronted with the marines’ incident in Mogadishu or the bombing of the Beirut barracks, Americans elected to cut and run.
In any event, there is not one Arab society blessed with democracy. The Mid-East conflict is complicated enough without trying to attempt and change an ingrained culture at the same time.
Establishing superpowers within the region is not the way to proceed. Instead, the Balkanization of the surrounding countries is to be welcomed, and attempts to be made to block new empires from filling in the void. Inviting the US in is not a viable option. America will not stomach prolonged losses and it cannot afford more costly wars. If you somehow pull it off to get the US involved, it will not last. In the end, you will inherit the blame. Be careful what you wish for.
As I have pointed out elsewhere, this “new Sykes-Picot agreement” proposal needs to be toughened up a bit in some respects. Turkey must be excluded from Syria altogether, and the U.S. , which has leverage over Turkey, must take responsibility for bringing this about. All Iranian and Iranian-controlled forces must be expelled from eastern Syria and the areas near the Golan. The Western powers, not Saudi Arabia, must control Eastern Syria. The Islamic fundamentalists have great power in Saudi Arabia, despite the Crown Prince’s recent efforts to somewhat restrict this power, and the Saudi fundamentalists are very sympathetic to the Sunni jihadist terrorists in Syria. In addition, the Saudi army has proven time and time again to be ineffective as a military force. Putting the Saudis in charge of Eastern Syria would be a recipe for disaster.
On the other hand, the U.S. will have to make concessions to Russia elsewhere in order to get Russia on board. One possible is to allow Russia to reincorporate Ukraine into its sphere of influence. Russia has legitimate national security reasons for wanting to return Ukraine to its sphere. Although this would be contrary to international law, and consequently the U.S. could not openly condone a Russian reoccupation of eastern Ukraine, it could allow this to happen de facto simply by withdrawing its military advisors from the country as its supply of weapons to the Ukrainian forces.
It should be noted that the original Sykes -Picot agreement included Russia as well as dance and Britain. Russia was promised Constantinope (Istanbul) as its share in the carving up of the Ottoman Empire. The Bolsheviks sabotaged this element of the Sykes-Picot-Sazonov agreement, as it originally was, by radiating it and publishing its secret protocols. But Putin is a post-Bolshevik, and he has not forgotten what was promised Sazonov by the West. As long as Russia agrees to the overthrow of Turkey’s fundamentalist regime allied with Hamas, the Western allies should not object to Turkey coming within Russia’s sphere of influence.
@ Bear Klein:
That may be…but also it may not be. We don’t even know positively that they did use chemical weapons, seeing the great hullabaloo that previous uses caused internationally. Before any Syrians fled the country, there were about 17-18 million Sunnis there, so whatever amount is still in Syria, it’s still more than double that of all the rest combined. That’s assuming that none of the other sects has lost any of it’s people. Of course we know that they have been brutally slaughtered in tens of thousands, so many also must have vanished abroad.
The point I’m making is that the Sunni majority is so great that nothing could happen that would make them into a submissive minority. At least, that’s my opinion.
@ Hugo Schmidt-Fischer:
The U.S. only needs to send little more than a token force in Syria, say 2-3000 soldiers, whose arrival should be well advertised.. Their very coming, would indicate Trump’s resolve, and the positively explicit massive force behind them. However, it seems that Trump is determined that ALL US troops should embark for home. This may be a misleading plan, but so far it seems genuine. However, he is brilliant, and can surely see that to have troops there makes it impossible for either Iran or Russia to move against them.
As you correctly pointed out, Israel should NOT try to persuade Trump to send troops to help Israel, who really need to keep up that image of never needing or wanting foreign boots on the ground.
@ Edgar G.:
Millions are gone elsewhere already. This is why they use the chemical weapons the fear factor of scaring people away.
@ Bear Klein:
I don’t know how they’d expect to get rid of the Sunnis -they are over 75% of the population.
@ Hugo Schmidt-Fischer:
If Iran is allowed to get all powerful and spread its wings it will become a global menace. It is in the interest of the all the western powers to stop Iran now. They are regional problem for the most part. However their tentacles are as far as South American and the Hezis have agents in the USA even.
If embeds in Syria successfully they will start a war of attrition with Israel and will use Shia militia from all over the middle east and Asia. If they get nuclear they will become a world wide danger.
The anti-Semitic comments in the US sphere are not paid bots, unfortunately, they are genuine.
One of the bedrocks of a successful Israeli geopolitical strategy used to be that Israel can fend for itself. The doctrine spelled out that the State of Israel never asked foreign soldiers to die on its behalf. And neither would Israel tolerate foreign soldiers on its borders. A very wise position as the shameful withdrawal of UN peacekeepers under Arab threat just before the Six Days war demonstrated.
For three generations since its founding, Israel was able to rightfully claim the support it received amounted to less than the cost of a destroyer, but one that was unsinkable, a loyal ally, perhaps the only one who held its front successfully in the Cold War, if you consider Vietnam, Korea and other theaters, where the US was not able to claim real victory.
Exuberant voices now, excited by a friendly US administration are suddenly calling for increased American engagement in the Middle East. This is a mistake. A hallmark of president Trump is his reticence to engage in foreign adventures that are costly in human lives and treasure. In addition, the American public is tired of failed military missions. Also, the US can frankly hardly afford more wars at this point. It is futile to egg the US on into new hostilities when the resistance against this is firmly baked in.
President Trump’s supporters from the right, are not buying the different poison gas allegations. And for all we know, they may actually be right. There is no solid proof yet today, Skripal was poisoned by the Russians, or that attacks in Syria were not carried out by some Islamic splinter group out to frame Assad.
Into this political environment of suspicion that has some justification, you can also add a very widespread following of true anti-Semites who are always prone to crazy theories of conspiracy alleging the US is controlled by Zionists, the Rothschilds, and Jews doing the bidding for Israel.
Why then are people advocating to enmesh the US into the Syrian quagmire. It is also not necessary. Ideally, Infidels should not be made to fight the Believers. It is a hopeless Sisyphean task. The internal warring factions within Syria, they should be empowered to go on. As far as the US is concerned, at this moment, providing logistic support to the Kurds should do the job. American lives must not be sacrificed.
At some point a case could be made that the US should perhaps intervene in order to resolve the Iranian problem which does pose a true global menace. But even that may be avoided if the fissures within Iranian society can be encouraged to run their own destructive forces.
@ Ted Belman:
I posted now a positive comment in American Thinker about your article. I am curious what response my comment will get from the readers and commentators of that article.
@ Edgar G.:
The Iranians, Hezbollah, Shia Militia are trying to ethnically cleanse all the Sunnis from Syria. We will not know for a long time what will the final result their will be. Which you have said in your own words.
Syria could still become the battle ground for another major war between Israel, Iran, Hezbollah, Syria and who knows who else.
The Russian mercenary group Wagner along with Syrians, Hezbollah may take on the Kurds, US and French Forces east of the Euphrates River. There was all ready one battle in which about 500 Russians crossed the Euphrates testing the US resolve with the Kurds. The US air and artillery power decimated them.
Perhaps I’m reading it wrongly, but it looks as if you are suggesting that the new Mandatory Powers should control your suggested allocated parts of Syria, as it stands right now. ……. I believe that there are several of the 15 or so minorities who would rather be under Assad’s rule rather than live with religiously antagonistic Sunnis-the Christians, for instance.
Although of course, it would be the duty of the Mandatory to protect them. How well that would work in practice……?? Especially after such a devastating disaster. It will take 50 years before Syria will begin to approach normality…I’m speculating of course, but…….
The San Remo Conference was in 1920 …
@ Ted Belman:
Your right Ted many of the commentators on your article in American Thinker are very crass lowlife anti-Semites.
Apparently they frequent the site as they have in red a request to flag anti-Semitic remarks.
American Thinker also published this article today. Their take on many issued both in the ME and in the US is very similar to Israpundit’s. So I was very surprised to read the comments there most of which are very antisemitic. The last article I had posted there drew even more antisemetic comments. I wondered if the commentors are paid trolls.