IDF officials warn tensions in West Bank close to boiling point following PA’s successful UN gambit; say coming March’s Nakba and Naksa days will foretell potential violence
Is a third intifada unavoidable? The recent Palestinian success in the UN, the deadlocked Israeli-Palestinian peace process and the achievements noted by Hamas during Operation Pillar of Defense have prompted greater agitation in the West Bank, and the IDF is concerned that the area is on the verge of a boiling point.
According to Shin Bet data, the unrest in the area is ripe for the development of the infrastructure that could potentially support a third intifada – prolonged and violent unrest the likes of which Israel has had to deal with in 1987 and 2000.
The Israel Security Agency said that in recent weeks, the number of arrest made by the Palestinian Authority’s security forces against Hamas operative in the West Bank has plummeted, and the PA no longer seems motivated to curb their activities in the area.
Almost simultaneously, military intelligence has seen a spike in alerts suggesting terror groups are planning attacked against Israeli soldiers and civilians alike.
According to the data, 130 attacks or attempted attacks were launched from the West Bank in November alone; the majority of which were classified by the defense establishment as “difficult to contain.”
West Bank riots during Gaza op (Photo: AFP)
Still, a senior military source in the Judea and Samaria Division told Ynet that “We’re able to reach everyone eventually, even those who hurl Molotovs or throw rocks at cars.”
The senior officer hedged that despite the palpable tension in the West Bank, the atmosphere is still far from resembling that which led to the al-Aqsa Intifada.
“We’ll have a better assessment of the situation in March, after the Palestinians mark the Nakba and Naksa days and the Prisoners Day. That’s a critical window. The Palestinians have a clear interest in maintaining their coordination (with the IDF) and the calm in the area. It’s an asset for them,” he said.
The IDF and Shin Bet’s near-complete intelligence network in the area has enabled the arrest of five terror cells in the Ramallah sector in the past four months alone, all of which were planning to abduct soldiers.
The defense establishment believes the timing was not coincidental, as all of the plots were set to be executed on or around the anniversary marking the release of 1,027 Palestinian prisoners in the Shalit deal.
The coming weeks will see dozens of former Palestinian prisoners return to the area, after the term of their imposed exile – stipulated in the deal – will end.
The IDF considers Ramallah to be a barometer of the atmosphere in entire Palestinian Authority and it seems that the latter no longer considers Hamas’ presence in the area illegal.
According to a top military source, “There are two scenarios that may indicate the future: Reopening of Hamas’ da’wah institutions in the West Bank and the complete suspension of Hamas’ operatives’ arrests.
Still, he stressed that the notion was theoretical, and will require “a closer relationship” between Fatah and Hamas.
“The Palestinian security forces in the West Bank have been targeting Hamas, crisscross-wise, for a long time, right down to bugging mosques and arresting muezzins for incitement,” he said.
The PA still has a firm grip on the ground and its security forces are able to successfully ward off riots in the Palestinian cities.
Commanders of the IDF’s spatial brigades still hold regular coordination meetings with their Palestinian counterparts and the defense establishment is tracking any potential escalation in the area.
The defense establishment has, however, expressed concern that the trigger for a third intifada may end up being Jewish terror, such as “price tag” acts or clashed between Palestinians and settlers.
Israeli security forces have increased their efforts to contain and thwart such incidents.
Thankyou, Canuck Frank, for your kind words.
@ Michael Devolin:
@ Michael Devolin:
An essential pre-requisite of an “expert” is to have a profound sense of the obvious. Who knows, the next “expert” may opine that the Pope is Catholic. Of course there will be a third intifada – and the fourth, fifth, and so on, until the arabs recognize Israel’s right to exist as a Jewish state, or until Israel wipes them out. I don’t see any middle ground.
By the way, unlike some others, I appreciate your support of Israel. She needs all the support she can get. Thank you.
Israel had their forces massed at the border and then capitulated. Israel should have given the United Nations the one-finger salute, gone in and wiped the bastards out once and for all. You continually fire rockets onto my property seeking to harm my people, I’m going to hunt you down and eliminate your butt.
Hamas hides among women and children, using them as shields. It certainly didn’t do Germany any good in WW-II, so why be different now? If Hamas wants to expose their women and children to death, then so be it. Bomb them back to the stone age. They’re barely out of that age anyway.
“West Bank on verge of intifada”
This headline is hilarious. When are these animals NOT on the verge of an intifada? I remember writing Daniel Pipes once and mocking him because he wrote, as a self-proclaimed “expert” no less, that “the Palestinians will react violently” to something the Israeli military was doing at the time. It takes an “expert” to forsee this? That’s like fortelling you’re going to find cow dung in a pasture field. Dahh. These whack-jobs are on the verge of intifadas like I’m on the verge of bowel movements every morning.
@ Bert:
Not only does the Netanayahu government lack backbone but you often have to wonder on which side it is on.
Israel should conduct a diplomatic action by publicly blaming Obama for failing to block Abbas at the U.N. and then for his urging the Europeans to beat up on Israel over the housing issue.
All this is encouraging the Palestinians to become more hostile. If Israel fails to act in advance then Obama will have a perfect excuse to blame Israel for his own treachery. Unfortunately the Netanyahu government lacks that backbone to ever speak out when they should.
I only hope that in any intifada Israel exploits the opportunity to firm up control of, at least area C, and annexation thereof. Push the pals back into the denser areas and let them eat each other. A hamas takeover should accelerate annexation of more areas, if lessons have been learned. Annexation of C should result in easier control of A & B. They are easier to control in smaller areas.