Welcome to the Islamist Middle East

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Gaffney: Rise of Sharia Law Will Bring War to the Middle East

War is on its way in the Middle East as Muslim countries are determined to force a showdown over the future of Israel, Ronald Reagan’s assistant defense secretary Frank Gaffney warned in an exclusive Newsmax.TV interview.

It’s Not Going to be Moderate

By Barry Rubin, PAJAMAS MEDIA

Ladies and gentlemen, liberals and conservatives, Obama-lovers and Obama-haters, no matter what your race, creed, gender, national origin, or level of unpaid college loans, two things should be clear to all of you:

First, to describe the Obama Administration’s Middle East policy as a disaster–I cannot think of a bigger, deadlier mess created by any U.S. foreign policy in the last century–is an understatement.

Second, the dominant analysis being used by the media, academia, and the talking heads on television has been proven dangerously wrong.

I won’t review all the evidence here, but it amounts to a retreat for moderates, allies of the West, and American interests coupled with an advanced for revolutionary Islamists.

On the morning of July 23, 1952, the Middle East entered a new era. The Free Officers movement took over Egypt and there followed more than a half-century of war, anti-Western hysteria, terrorism, repression, social stagnation, and the basic Four Horsemen of the Apocalypse type stuff in the Middle East. That was the Era of Arab Nationalism.

On February 11 or October 23, or November 28, 2011 the Middle East entered a new era. Whether you date it to the fall of Mubarak, the Tunisian election, or the Egyptian election what do you think is going to happen in the next half-century in the region? This is now—I call it officially—the Era of Revolutionary Islamism.

There is a great deal that will ensure the Islamists aren’t ultimately triumphant, but there’s nothing that can stop them now from being dominant ideologically in the region and politically in the majority of countries between Tunisia and Iran, probably Afghanistan and possibly Pakistan

Equally the ideas that revolutionary Islamism doesn’t exist, cannot be talked about, is not a threat, that extreme radicals are really moderates.

As early as the 1980s these trends were visible but the outcome was not inevitable.

There were four key elements in this victory for the Islamists.

First, the long, failed reign of Arab nationalist regimes went on in a downward spiral of increasingly less effective demagoguery, losing wars, and poor economic development performance as a demographic explosion took place.

Yet as late as 2000 the prospects for the Islamists looked poor. Almost a quarter-century after Iran’s revolution they had not taken over in any other country except remote Afghanistan.

Then, second, the September 11 attacks revitalized the movement. Usama bin Ladin lies moldering in the sea but his movement goes marching on.

But while bin Ladin lacked strategic flexibility, other Islamists were more effective.

And so, third, from Turkey came the idea of what might be called “stealth Islamism,” just pretend to be moderate and the suckers will buy it. Yusuf al-Qaradawi, the Muslim Brotherhood guru, also contributed here: bin Ladin is a fool, he said in effect, of course we should run in elections. We’ll win.

Reinforcing this, and fourth, came the idea of adapting Western rhetoric and public relations’ methods. After decades of bragging about how they would conquer and murder all their enemies, nothing changed in Arabic. In English, however, they spoke about being pitiable victims of imperialism, Zionism, Western racism, and so on. A key pioneer here was Edward Said, a man who hated the Islamists but they proved to be his best students

And finally, there were disastrous Western policies and misconceptions, with the presidency of Barack Obama being the crowning catastrophe. For whatever reason, the Obama Administration has empowered America’s enemies and the new oppressors of the local people. Appeasement is one thing; giving those who hate you most a boost into power goes far beyond that.

To summarize, I will merely say:

Egypt, Gaza Strip, Lebanon, Libya, Syria, Tunisia, and Turkey.

Six countries or entities listed above have come—or are likely to come—under Islamist rule. Each is different.

But in all but the case of Turkey—where the Obama Administration ignored State Department reporting and has continually honored and excused an Islamist regime—and the Gaza Strip—where the Obama Administration helped entrench Hamas’s rule by forcing Israel to slash sanctions–they happened almost completely on Obama’s watch. Turkey and the Gaza Strip have become far worse on Obama’s watch.

The seventh, Syria, might merely remain under a repressive, pro-Iran, anti-American regime. And while there is a chance for a moderate democratic revolution, the White House is supporting the Islamists. If the State Department hadn’t revolted and the Saudis acted decisively, Bahrain would probably have been added to the above list.

There is no way to conceal this situation in October 2011 although it has been largely hidden, lied about, and misunderstood until this moment. Equally ideas must be quickly trashed that revolutionary Islamism doesn’t exist, cannot be talked about, is not a threat, that extreme radicals are really moderates.

Even now, the nonsense continues. The article you are reading at this moment probably could not have been published in a single mass media newspaper. Libya’s new regime calls for Sharia to be “the main” source of law. That is what the Muslim Brotherhood has been seeking in Egypt for decades. Yet we are being told that this isn’t really so bad after all.

The title of the Washington Post’s editorial, “Tunisia again points the way for Arab democracy, ” can be considered merely ironic. It certainly points the way…toward Islamist dictatorship. And then there are the New York Times and BBC headlines on the Tunisian elections telling us it is a victory for “moderate Islamists.”

They aren’t moderate. They’re just pretending to be. And you who fall for it aren’t Middle East experts, competent policymakers, or serious journalists; you’re just pretending to be.

I’m putting those headlines in my file alongside Moderate Islamists Take Power in Iran; Moderate Islamists Take Power in the Gaza Strip, Moderate Islamists Take Power in Lebanon, and Moderate Islamists Take Power in Turkey.

Without taking any position on climate issues, let me put it this way: Why are people frantic about the possibility that the earth’s temperature might rise slightly in 50 years but see no problem in hundreds of millions of people and vast amounts of wealth and resources becoming totally controlled by people who think like those who carried out the September 11 attacks?

And that brings us to the Tunisian elections. In the words of the song “New York, New York,” if the Islamists in Tunisia can be “top of the list, king of the hill” in Tunisia,” they can say, “If I can make it there, I’ll make it anywhere.”

Next stop, Egypt.

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5 Comments, 5 Threads

1. spindok

Right now in Turkey people are dying beneath the rubble because they refused Israeli help. in 1999 Israeli search and rescue and field hospital teams rescued over a dozen people there and gave medical care to many more.

Lives could have been saved. The teams were ready to go, are excellent in what they do, and could have been there in hours. Better let them die than have them touched by a Jew.

The Turks now officially hate the Jews more than they love their children. No cure for that sickness.
October 25, 2011 – 1:06 pm Link to this Comment | Reply
2. morris wise

Few have suffered the agony of Qaddafi as he was crucified with a bayonet up his rear end. But he also experienced the ecstasy from knowing that one day he would be worshiped as a hero by the Libyan people.
October 25, 2011 – 1:12 pm Link to this Comment | Reply
3. mstr

Why should anyone take Rubin’s hyperbole in the face of his unqualified support for the Iraq war? If you want a “blunder” of a century that was it. A manchurian candidate, how about GWB? But I would not go that far. He was just a recovering alcoholic, so his mind was on booze not on the consequences of breaking a four century old status quo. Ask the self-proclaimed “expert” Rubin why he himself advocated so vociferously for a war against Iraq who meant no harm to US. Now, in those days there was one dissenting voice from a junior senator from Illinois but, it was drowned in shrill of war cries, it was Barak Hussein Obama. He was rightly cautioning against a US against Iraq for that would surely break Iraq and lever Iran up. So it was a recipe for quagmire for the US in ME. Indeed, to a large extent people elected Obama on his opposition to failing wars, and the faltering economy helped too. Make no mistake, Rubin and his neocon friends have contributed to this disaster. With their “phony” expert opinions they have convinced the political elite that Iraq war was both necessary and also a cake walk. Now they all attack Obama to pin now apparent disaster on him.

If you carefully analyze what Obama has been doing, you would clearly see that first and foremost he is avoiding new foreign policy initiatives. He is placing most of his efforts on cleaning up the mess Iraq war has created. To sum up, Rubin is not right person to give policy lessons to Obama. He should first own up to his mistakes.