‘We Can Always Look for Other Ways’: Key Iranian Supply Line to Hezbollah Broken After Assad Ouster

FDD | Dec 15, 2024

Latest Developments

• Iran’s Route through Syria Severed: Hezbollah chief Naim Qassem said in a public address that Hezbollah’s critical supply line – running from Iran through Iraq and Syria into Lebanon – no longer exists following the overthrow of former Syrian President Bashar al-Assad by Islamist rebels on December 8. Qassem’s admission marks the first time that the Iranian proxy and U.S.-designated terrorist organization has commented publicly on the ramifications of Assad’s fall from power.

• Syria Helped Connect Iran to Hezbollah: For years, the Islamic Republic has directly shipped weapons across Iraq and Syria into Lebanon to facilitate Hezbollah’s attacks on Israel. Hezbollah’s Unit 4400 has historically been tasked with establishing these smuggling routes through Syria, which the IDF have targeted with airstrikes in recent months.

• Hezbollah Seeks to Establish Ties with Syrian Rebel Groups: Though Hezbollah’s Qassem conceded that his organization lost “its military supply line through Syria,” he emphasized Hezbollah’s goals of reestablishing these routes by coordinating with Islamist groups now in positions of power in Syria like Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, which spearheaded the ten-day offensive that ousted Assad. Qassem said that their weapons supply routes from Iran through Syria “might come back normally with the new regime,” but added that Hezbollah “can always look for other ways.”

FDD Expert Response

“Qassem’s admission of a setback given Assad’s downfall was rare for Hezbollah. But he made clear that the group would now seek ties and the restoration of the land route through Syria under its new rulers — dovetailing with the group’s conciliatory statements since Assad’s removal. Whether they will succeed is an open question, but what’s certain is that Iran and its proxies still have their sights set on Syria.” — David Daoud, Senior Fellow

“The U.S. and Israel should approach Naim Qassem’s statement with skepticism. Israel’s targeted bombing of Hezbollah’s weapons supply infrastructure — particularly those linked to Unit 4400 — has indeed complicated the Lebanon-based group’s recovery from significant wartime losses. However, Hezbollah has established redundancies in its weapons smuggling operations, utilizing both maritime and air routes. Although these alternatives present challenges and are susceptible to Israeli interdiction, they do not eliminate Hezbollah’s capacity to procure arms from external sources.” — Joe Truzman, Senior Research Analyst and Editor at FDD’s Long War Journal

FDD Background and Analysis

“Naim Qassem on Hezbollah’s post-ceasefire posture,” by David Daoud

“IDF Eliminates Hezbollah Official Overseeing Weapons Transfer From Syria to Lebanon,” FDD Flash Brief

“‘Primary Source of Arms’: Israel Targets Syria-Lebanon Border Crossings Used to Supply Weapons to Hezbollah,” FDD Flash Brief

“Israel’s expanding efforts to disrupt Hezbollah’s supply chain,” by Emanuele Ottolenghi and Joe Truzman