US wants Israel to shelve judicial overhaul and restart talks with Palestinians in return for Saudi normalization AND THEN SOME

Report also claims both Washington and Riyadh are conditioning potential establishment of diplomatic ties on Israel restarting peace talks with Palestinians

By TOI STAFF   23 May 2023, 10:18 pm

The White House reportedly wants Israel to halt its judicial overhaul and restart peace talks with the Palestinian Authority in order for the US to move forward with brokering normalization between Israel and Saudi Arabia.

Reports have swirled in recent days that Jerusalem and Riyadh are in the midst of negotiations over direct flights between the nations that have the potential to lead to a wider normalization deal — which has long been sought by Israel but largely rejected by the Saudis.

An unsourced Channel 12 news report Tuesday evening said the US and the Saudis have enumerated their demands for such an agreement moving forward. The report claimed that Washington and Riyadh are both seeking to pressure Israel into restarting diplomatic talks with the Palestinians that will lead to a “separation,” and the US is also demanding that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu halt his government’s controversial judicial overhaul plan.

On Friday, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman told the Arab League that “the Palestinian issue was and remains the central issue for Arab countries, and it is at the top of the kingdom’s priorities.”

The Saudis are also reportedly demanding that the White House unfreeze some Trump-era weapons deals that were frozen when US President Joe Biden took office, and are also seeking a defense treaty with the US similar to NATO as well as its stamp of approval for a civilian nuclear program.

A full normalization deal, the report claims, would offer Israel in exchange full US backing for its actions against Iran’s nuclear weapons program.

In 2020, Israel agreed to freeze a plan to annex wide swaths of the West Bank in exchange for the Abraham Accords which normalized relations with the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain, and later Morocco.

Channel 12 reported Tuesday that US Secretary of State Antony Blinken and National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan are involved in the negotiations alongside Mossad chief David Barnea and “very senior officials” close to bin Salman.

The TV network cited a senior Israeli official as saying that a normalization deal would be a “gamechanger for Israeli security,” and that there is “potential for a deal,” but it will require courage from Netanyahu, Biden and bin Salman.

On Monday, the channel reported that the Saudis were pressuring Israel to hand certain powers in the West Bank from the IDF to the Palestinian Authority forces, give the PA forces security-related authority at the Temple Mount and the Church of the Holy Sepulchre in Jerusalem’s Old City — far-reaching steps that are highly unlikely to be approved by Israel’s hard-right government.

Speaking at a conference on Tuesday, National Security Adviser Tzachi Hanegbi denied that there had been any direct conversations between Netanyahu and bin Salman in recent months, but said a normalization deal was possible.

“There is in Saudi Arabia a leader that the world has never seen before, a man who took his country 180 degrees in a different direction, a bold and revolutionary leader,” Hanegbi said. “If he thinks that it is possible to reach normalization with Israel, it will happen. I believe there is a chance this will happen.”

In a historic move last year, Saudi Arabia announced that it opened its airspace to all civilian overflights, hours before Biden became the first US leader to directly fly from Israel to the Gulf nation.

On Saturday, Foreign Minister Eli Cohen touted the possibility of normalization with Saudi Arabia within six months, during an interview with Channel 12’s Meet the Press.

“There’s a good chance we can advance a peace agreement with Saudi Arabia,” Cohen said. “I assume there is definitely a chance in half a year, or in the coming year.”

Cohen cited Jerusalem and Riyadh’s joint interests, notably preventing Iran from creating a nuclear bomb, as a reason to be hopeful for a deal.

Saudi Arabia’s decision in March to renew ties with Iran after over half a decade was seen by some as a setback for normalization between the kingdom and Israel.

But the Biden administration has continued to work on striking such a deal in recent months, with Sullivan calling it a “national security interest” earlier this month.

Shortly after those comments, Sullivan flew to Riyadh, where he met with bin Salman and raised the issue. He was accompanied by senior White House aides Brett McGurk and Amos Hochstein who subsequently traveled to Jerusalem to brief Netanyahu on the status of the endeavor.

Foreign Ministry director-general Ronen Levy also spoke with administration officials about a potential Saudi deal during his trip to Washington last week.

Netanyahu flew to Saudi Arabia in November 2020 to meet with bin Salman, the first publicly reported meeting between the two. Israel and Saudi Arabia do not have diplomatic relations, but clandestine ties have strengthened in recent years, as the two countries have confronted a shared threat in Iran.

Jacob Magid contributed to this report.

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JEWISH PRESS REPORTS

The Saudi demands from the United States include thawing the arms deals that have been frozen by the Biden administration, a defense pact with the US, and a full nuclear program. As to Israel, the Saudis demand reviving the 2-state process with the PA. And the US conditions its support for peace with the Saudis, as well as its support for a future Israeli attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities, on burying the judicial reform.

The two demands from Netanyahu are dovetailed: whether or not his government starts serious negotiations to give away Judea and Samaria, the Americans want a powerful Supreme Court in place to curtail new settlements in the liberated territories.

Barak Ravid reported on March 29, citing two American sources familiar with the matter, that the morning after Prime Minister Netanyahu had ousted Defense Minister Yoav Galant, President Joe Biden delivered a personal, secret message to Netanyahu demanding he stops the judicial reform. Shortly thereafter, Netanyahu suspended the judicial reform.

On Tuesday, State Dept. spokesperson Miller was asked: “Are you aware of phone conversations between the Israeli prime minister and the Saudi Crown Prince on normalization between the two countries, and did the US play any role in this regard?”

Miller responded: “We are aware of the reports. … I’m not going to speak about any private diplomatic conversations, I will say that as a broader measure, we, of course, fully support Israel’s integration into the Middle East region, including normalizing relations with Saudi Arabia.”

At the Arab League summit last week, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman proclaimed: “The Palestinian issue was and still is the central issue for the Arab countries and is at the top of the kingdom’s priorities. We will not delay in providing assistance to the Palestinian people in recovering their lands, restoring their legitimate rights, and establishing an independent state in the borders of 1967, with East Jerusalem as its capital.”

Last week, Maariv revealed that negotiations that began about a year ago regarding direct flights from Israel to the Hajj in Mecca, Saudi Arabia, have led to a breakthrough, and Riyadh is inclined to approve the move. Only Muslims living in Israel who wish to participate in the pilgrimage to Mecca will be allowed to board the planes.

Needless to say, those will not be El Al planes.

The message here remains what it has always been: every move on the part of the center-left, the left, the extreme-left, the anarchists, the billionaires who fund the anarchists, the Biden administration, and the EU is focused on one target: uprooting the Jewish settlements from Judea and Samaria and establishing a Palestinian state that will rule the entire area.

If you’ve asked yourself, why would the Israeli left, which comprises captains of industry, bankers, hedge fund managers, hi-tech wizards, media barons, and whole swaths of the security apparatus, including the IDF, Shin Bet, Mossad, and the police – this is the answer. The plan has always been to kill the settlements, because if you manage to kill the settlement, you remove the most resilient component of traditional Jewish society in Israel, following which the heirs of secular Zionism would return to power indefinitely.

Sounds like a conspiracy theory? So did the idea that the father of the settlement enterprise, Arik Sharon, would uproot thousands of Jewish settlers. It was inconceivable.

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AL MONITOR

Israel-Saudi normalization requires concessions for Palestinians

By Ben Caspit

TEL AVIV — US-mediated talks between Israel and Saudi Arabia on normalization are indeed ongoing, but Israel will have to pay a real price in terms of concessions to the Palestinians for such a move to take place, a senior Israeli official told Al-Monitor this week.

The same optimistic-yet-pessimistic assessment was also expressed on Sunday by a senior US official, who spoke with Al-Monitor on condition of anonymity.

“The desire exists; the administration understands that an agreement between Israel and Saudi Arabia will serve the interests of all sides and also the interests of the Middle East. There were many difficulties between the Biden administration and the Saudi leadership, but at this moment it seems to me that the sides have overcome this and there is an aspiration to try to bring about this historic agreement that will change the face of the Middle East,” the official said.

At the same time, the official clarified that talks on such a move are in the initial stages, and while prospects exist of a breakthrough, they are not high and it is too soon to celebrate.

These Israeli and American statements came against the backdrop of recent reports by the Mako news site and The Jerusalem Post, among others, about accelerated contacts on this issue between the US, Saudi Arabia and Israel. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman spoke on the phone twice in recent weeks, with Bahraini Foreign Minister Abdullatif bin Rashid Al Zayani facilitating the calls, according to an unnamed foreign diplomatic source cited by The Jerusalem Post.

“Bahrain is the most positive element,” a former senior Israeli diplomatic source told Al-Monitor. “They are a quiet but ultra-positive factor; they are connected to Saudi Arabia and have good relations with Israel; they have a US Fifth Fleet base so they are also connected to Washington; and there is nothing they want more than a square axis that starts in Washington, passes through Jerusalem, Riyadh and ends with them, on the verge of the Persian Gulf vis-a-vis Iran.”

Israeli Foreign Minister Eli Cohen told Al-Monitor on Saturday that he believes some kind of breakthrough in normalization talks between Israel and Saudi Arabia could well occur by the end of the year.

Cohen also confirmed Al-Monitor’s report that the Negev Forum is scheduled to hold its second annual conference in Morocco in about one month, with its previous participants — Israel, the United States, Morocco, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain and Egypt — and “other countries that are not yet parties to the Abraham Accords.” The issue also came up in meetings held by Foreign Ministry Director General Ronen Levy in Washington last week.

Is a historic Israeli-Saudi breakthrough indeed feasible? Probably, but in the Middle East, everything that can go wrong usually does. The motivation is there with all sides having much to gain; the political will and ability to implement such a move is less certain. This question is more complicated in 2023 than ever before, given Netanyahu’s mutual chokehold coalition with hard-line nationalist extremists.

Reports in The Times of Israel and elsewhere according to which former US Ambassador to Israel Dan Shapiro is being considered as an official administration point person on the Abraham Accords underscore the Biden administration’s determination to exhaust the Israeli-Saudi effort.

Shapiro, who served in Israel for six years under President Barack Obama, is considered one of the most effective American ambassadors of the current era. He maintained excellent relations with all Netanyahu government officials, although much of his time in office was characterized by tensions, and sometimes even open hostility between Obama and Netanyahu. Shapiro is a veteran Middle East hand who has held senior posts in Congress and the National Security Council, he knows the Israeli side well, and is also accepted and liked in Arab states.

“If there’s anyone who can promote this event and the effort between Israel and Saudi Arabia, it’s Shapiro,” a senior Israeli diplomatic source told Al-Monitor on condition of anonymity.

The prospects of a Shapiro appointment are bolstered by the surprise planned departure from office of US Ambassador to Israel Tom Nides this summer.

“It will take at least six months for the administration to choose a new ambassador and go through the hearing and appointment procedures in Washington, at which time Shapiro can be a worthy replacement, especially if we are talking about historically important contacts, such as the effort to make peace between Israel and Saudi Arabia,” said the senior Israeli diplomatic source.

However, prospects of a historic Israeli-Saudi agreement do not necessarily depend on personal appointments. This is a complex move that will require concessions from two of the three sides: The United States will have to provide the Saudis with the items on their shopping list, which include technology for nuclear power reactors, upgraded weapons and a defense alliance, while Israel will have to concede to such an upgrade of Saudi military capabilities and make significant concessions toward the Palestinians, as per the Arab world’s demands, most recently at this month’s Arab League summit. 

“This will be a clear demand of Riyadh. They will not settle for symbolic gestures, only real moves, such as renewing the peace process, maybe even freezing settlements, real commitments on [Muslim control of] the Temple Mount, and more. It is not certain that Netanyahu is capable of delivering these goods,” said the senior Israeli diplomatic source.

This begs the ultimate question of whether Netanyahu could accept the Saudi demands given his position as head of the most right-wing coalition in Israeli history. Judging by statements and acts of Netanyahu’s coalition partners to increase tensions with the Palestinians, the answer is probably “no.” 

Can Netanyahu replace the coalition with political parties more amenable to concessions to the Saudis? Again, probably not. Centrist opposition leaders Benny Gantz and Yair Lapid are firmly ensconced on the political fence.

“Gantz and Lapid don’t believe a word Netanyahu says; Gantz has already tried it and got burned, he barely survived. … Lapid is more stubborn than Gantz,” said an Israeli political source on condition of anonymity.

Still, if the US administration throws all its weight behind this initiative, and Israel deploys its lobby in Washington to help the Democrats push through congressional approval of the controversial Saudi demands, Gantz and Lapid will face a harsh dilemma. Should they join Netanyahu’s coalition to replace the extremists and become signatories to the most important historic peace agreement since the 1979 treaty with Egypt? Will they refuse even in the face of such an unprecedented opportunity? Most political commentators believe they will, but that’s just a guess.

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Arutz Sheva

MK Danny Danon: We respect the US but Israel’s policy will be determined by us

MK Danon responds to report that Biden admin won’t agree to mediate Israel-Saudi talks unless judicial reforms are dropped: We must not advance our relations in the wake of an ultimatum.

MK Danny Danon, chairman of World Likud and Israel’s former Ambassador to the UN, responded on Tuesday to a Channel 12 News report which said that the Biden administration has demanded that the Israeli government drop the judicial reform from its agenda in exchange for normalization of ties with Saudi Arabia.
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“We respect our friends in the US but Israel’s policy will be determined by us. Normalizing relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia is a regional interest, but we must not advance our relations in the wake of an ultimatum,” said Danon.

Tuesday’s report said the Saudis are demanding the resumption of peace talks between Israel and the Palestinian Authority as a condition for normalization with Israel, while the US was the party which raised the demand over the judicial reform in exchange for mediating the normalization talks.

Israel has been for years rumored to have behind-the-scenes ties with Saudi Arabia, but the Saudis have vehemently denied those rumors.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has made clear that his goal is to achieve a peace agreement with Saudi Arabia that would “effectively end the Arab-Israeli conflict.”

However, Saudi officials have repeatedly said that a Palestinian state with eastern Jerusalem as its capital is a prerequisite for Saudi Arabia normalizing ties with Israel.

Foreign Minister Eli Cohen expressed hope, in an interview with Channel 12 News on Saturday night, that the normalization agreement will be signed in the next six months or a year, with the approval of direct flights to Saudi Arabia being a necessary condition for the move.

A day later, it was reported that Israel has approached airlines in Jordan, Bahrain, and other countries in the region requesting that they operate direct flights to Saudi Arabia from the Ben Gurion Airport or Ramon Airport in southern Israel.

The report said that the Saudis are inclined to approve the move, which would be available only for Muslims who live in Israel and wish to participate in the pilgrimage to Mecca.

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