The formal Israeli-Palestinian meeting announced by the US State Department as scheduled for next Wednesday, Aug. 14 is but the outer shell of the secret hard-core negotiations bouncing back and forth for weeks between US Secretary of State John Kerry, Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu and Palestinian Authority Chairman Mahmoud Abbas, DEBKAfile reports.
The real talks are approaching a climax on the fundamental issues of borders, Jerusalem, refugees and settlements. Every afternoon in past weeks, Kerry has called the Israeli prime minister and Palestinian leader on secure phone lines and taken the talks a step further. Any incoming calls from the two leaders are switched directly through to the Secretary of State, an unheard of procedure in his department.
As early as June 30, DEBKAfile revealed exclusively that the three-cornered negotiations had secretly got down to the brass tacks of core issues.
Ten days later, our sources reported dramatic progress, to the point that Kerry was asking Netanyahu for specific information on the Jewish settlements he was willing to remove in Judea and Samaria (the West Bank), and Abbas was chipping in with additions to the list. Netanyahu countered with questions about the Palestinian concessions on offer for the evacuations.
The process has been reduced to straight haggling, Middle East bazaar style – except that the wares laid out for sale are Jerusalem, Palestinian refugees, security, international security forces and the borders that will separate Israel from a future Palestinian state.
Although Secretary Kerry has stated publicly that his objective is a final resolution of the Israeli-Palestinian dispute, his expectations are more realistic when he handles the behind-the scenes, real-life horse trading. All three parties appreciate that the most they can achieve are interim accords. Items bound to remain at issue will have to be set aside for a future round of negotiations at a time which none of the parties is inclined to pin down.
For now, the officials assigned with conducting the formal negotiations are not privy to the progress made secretly by their principals. US special envoy Ambassador Martin Indyk, Justice Minister and senior negotiator Tzipi Livni and Palestinian negotiator Saab Erekat are therefore still in the dark.
Progress is substantial enough by now to have prompted Kerry to convene a meeting of Jewish American leaders for a briefing Thursday evening, Aug. 8, at the White House.
He told them there was a “strategic imperative” to arrive at a deal soon, and said he understood the difficulties Netanyahu faced in dealing with a coalition that included hard right parties and figures. He was described as appearing “bullish” about the talks, but also “nervous” about the Israeli prime minister’s ability to overcome the resistance in his own Likud party and government coalition to sweeping concessions on settlements.
As well as Ambassador Indyk, Kerrry invited National Security Adviser Susan Rice to join him at the meeting, which lasted 90 minutes, to signal President Barack Obama’s approval.
Kerry criticized the European Union’s policy of excluding Israeli enterprises on the West Bank from grants and prizes as likely to “nudge Netanyahu away” from a deal with the Palestinians, and therefore counter-productive to the peace effort he launched last February.
According to the information reaching DEBKAfile, Kerry’s motive in summoning American Jewish leaders to the White House was his belief that progress in the negotiations has brought the Israeli prime minister close to a crossroads. He will soon face a decision to reshuffle his cabinet and replace ministers who would oppose the terms of the interim accord shaping up with Palestinians. For this step, he would find the support of American Jewry helpful.
Netanyahu will soon need to present the leaders of the pro-settlement Israel Beteinu and Bayit Yehudi parties with the choice of backing him up all the way to the accord with the Palestinians to which the US Secretary is steering at speed, or quitting the government coalition. The same question will be put to Netanyahu’s own Likud party members.
@ M Devolin:
I was being sarcastic,my one true talent.
“Better a gilded lie,than hard truth.”
I disagree, my dear Honeybee. “Better the wound of a friend than the kiss of an enemy.” “A fool disregards reproof.”
Vinnie Said:
Better a gilded lie,that hard truth
“If you ask me Israel holds all the cards if we choose to play them all out.”
Bravo, Yamit!!
@ bernard ross:
I know the clip and to add just a bit more to your perceptions here is another filmed after his death by friends:
Rabbi Meir Kahane Remembered
@ yamit82: thanks for all the info.
on another note I stumbled across a 1989 interview of Rabbi Kahane. I started listening and, like all other videos of his that i started, I couldn’t stop. I am slowly realizing your respect and reference often to him. He is honest and straightforward and stands out against the other leaders. I believe he would have made a great prime minister for Israel. this was a cspan interview with call in questions and he handled questions very well. Much of what he said obtaining then is the same today. He presented an image which did not suffer fools or liars. he would have known how to deal with the foreigners in a way that jews could be proud of. Now it is all playing games and subterfuge.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P2jYyy4Rfog
watsa46 Said:
Hamas is our ace in the hole. The only reason the PA has not had scheduled elections since 2009 is that Abbas knows he will lose to Hamas. He is not even legal under their charter. His term in office officially expired in 2009. Any agreement he makes is non binding on the PA and PLO.
BB knows this yet is pretending it’s all Kosher. What a schmuck.
honeybee Said:
I am? 😉
@ watsa46:
Of course, you are right to an extent that Israeli Jews bear the primary rights/responsibilities concerning the Israel-Palestinian conflict, along with anything else having to do with Israel.
But not in a total sense.
Jews in the Diaspora, whether they like it or not, regardless of their personal views, are going to be identified with Israel, and to a degree, held responsible for what Israel does, even as they don’t vote or serve in the IDF. How many American Jews here have found themselves as the local ‘acting ambassador for Israel’ among Gentiles at your workplace, among friends, etc.?
SOME Jews here in the U.S. interpret this to mean that if Israel acts in a bold and aggressive manner, then anti-Israel and other assorted anti-Semites will take out their frustrations on them, to put the “uppity Jews” in their “place”. But this is wrong. The opposite is true. If Israel stands up for her rights and succeeds, ALL Jews benefit. It is only when Israel shows weakness that the anti-Semites everywhere ‘smell blood in the water’, and start looking for local Jews to pick on. And believe it or not, MOST Jews here understand this, and are rooting for Israel to defeat her adversaries, and not take any crap from anyone, including Obama.
Which leads me to the point on which I disagree with you completely, and that is your contention that regarding American Jews, “…most are not pro-Israel.”
I know whereof I speak. I have been involved with grassroots Israel advocacy here for over a decade now. I can assure you that most American Jews are very pro-Israel.
You may find that hard to square with the fact of many mainstream American Jewish organizations kissing Obama’s butt. Trust me; they don’t represent American Jews nearly to the extent that they flatter themselves that they do. These “Jewish leaders” are nothing but judenrats, and are perceived as such by far more Jews here than you imagine.
You may find this hard to square with the fact of so many Jews here voting for Obama. That is a more complicated issue, but the short answer is that powers of denial and rationalization among Jews are just as great as among any other people. Jews here supported Obama because they believed that he represented the ‘second coming of [Saint] FDR’…and they were right in many ways about this, but not in the positive sense they believed. However irrationally, in order to vote for Obama, Jews who did had to convince themselves that Obama really was pro-Israel. I know that takes gold medal class mental gynmastics, but that is what they did. Very few went to the polls to vote for Obama, acknowledging open-eyed how anti-Israel he really was.
I can tell you, whether they voted for Obama or not, overwhelmingly, when Bibi dressed down Obama at the White House back in May of ’11, Jews here were ECSTATIC. They thought that was GREAT. If Jewish “leaders” here try to go to Israel and tell Bibi that Jews here “want” Bibi to capitulate to Obama, these “leaders” are nothing but liars, and I would swear on the Western Wall to that.
In any event, like I said earlier in #16 above, for my part, I hope BB doesn’t last as PM, if he can’t grow a pair such that he can stand up to Obama. I’m with you completely on that one.
Vinnie Said:
Best thing that could ever happen to Israel. UN can recognize anybody they want but in what borders. Without Israel they can’t make it stick.
95% of the Palis economy is tied to Israel even their currency We still control all entry and exists and can tighten up and services we supply like water, electricity, telecommunication and imports of their produce, not to mention supplying them with a couple of billion shekels each year and employing some 50-100,000 workers in Israel and in the settlements.
Israel could without notice change our currency rendering all old shekels in Palis hands worthless. We Bar all UN agencies, NGO’s and personnel access to the territories through Israel and not at all in areas under our control.
They might get their UN vote but it won’t get them a country. Jordan need us to cover his back against Iran and Iraq and Syria. We supply Jordan 700 million cu.meters of free water each year and I would love to keep it all for ourselves. Jordanian agents sell our products all over the ME and I don’t think they would enjoy losing commissions on 3/4 of a billion dollars.
Israel has so much leverage I don’t know what the big fear is all about. Let them go to the UN and get their vote in the SC. One veto is all that’s necessary and Russia for their own reasons might supply it if America won’t another way of sticking it to Obama.
If you ask me Israel holds all the cards if we choose to play them all out.
@ yamit82:
This is a bottomless pit. Let the oil countries fill the pit.
Kerry & Obama are using Abbas to pin down Israel while not resolving the Hamas issue first.
@ yamit82:
Your on a roll!!!
The American Jews who wish to get involved in the Pal-IL issues must either shut-up or move to Israel where they can vote if they wish. They have no other rights or responsibilities. Most are not pro-Israel. BB may not last as Prime minister.
bernard ross Said:
Going by memory, he thought he could persuade them to change their minds by the usual methods of buying their acquiescence announcing more building as compensation and jobs in and out of government to key players in opposition. He counted on Clinton’s promise to release Pollard and we received news flashes that Pollard would be on BB’s flight home. Last min. Clinton stuck it too him and BB didn’t bail out of the agreement so his ace was taken out from him. Clinton got his agreement and hated the Liar BB and hoped he would be deposed opening up an opportunity to get someone even more compliant like Barak. He sent his election team to Israel to work with Barak and they were successful.. Barak won by a landslide BB went to America to make money and VIP speaking tour. Barak was so bad he was deposed after just over 2 years and we got Sharon who benefited from the fact BB left him in Charge as caretaker till next elections. Shrewd Sharon kept BB out and took the elections again in a Landslide allowing BB to stay in America without his planned comeback and make more money on the VIP speech circuit. BB kissed sharons ass for almost 6 years till he became the next heir apparent in the Party. He went virtually unopposed got elected top of Likud list and formed the next coalition bringing in Labor,leaving out the ideological settlement party with Eldad, and then making Barack his old friend and commander DM. Here we are, in a nut shell.
bernard ross Said:
Yes and on Lieberman.
No but likud activists heads of local chapters and central committee members have them by the balls if they don’t play ball. They will be kept off the next party list or placed down in unrealistic places.
No doubt that pressure should be applied to these power brokers by the rank and file and general public. It’s easier than trying to convince the whole country and cheaper to effect.
@ bernard ross:
The levy Report only makes the case that settlement is not illegal. America never maintained that settlements were illegal. The government of Israel says that any building not authorized by the government is illegal, that’s true for all building all over Israel. Approving the Levy report will at best support the government in suits against them by Arabs and Leftists in our courts. It won’t open up more settlement or building if the government of Israel does not want them. I would fight to remove the legal necessity of having the IDF civil administration relieved of their power to authorize what is and what isn’t legal Jewish building and place that determination say in the Housing ministry or the Prime Ministers office. That way BB can’t play good cop bad cop blaming the DM and the IDF for denial of approvals.
“…why don’t party member of likud, BY and IB press for adoption of Levy Report by govt?”
Because Kerry and Co. want nothing to do with the Levy Report. It’d be easier to shove a Zeppelin up his ass than to have Kerry accept a reading of the Levy Report.
@ yamit82:
why don’t party member of likud, BY and IB press for adoption of Levy Report by govt? this could be a good first step towards changing the paradigm. commissioning the report was a good step but the next step should be focused upon and pressure brought to bear for adoption. After adoption the courts would have to interpret differently. Perhaps Livni is there to declare it unconstitutional?
yamit82 Said:
this indicates that focus should be brought within Likud, IB and BY. Is it only party members who can protest to the MK’s and ministers?
yamit82 Said:
This also i that ndicates that when Israelis take a united stand the foreigners back up
How was BB brought down last time and why was he surprised and shocked (didn’t polls warn him)?
I normally don’t put much stock in Debkafile, but this article sounds at least plausible.
Debka or no, there is no question that the whole of Obama’s foreign policy revolves around shoving a Saudi-style “peace” [i.e., surrender] plan down Israel’s throat. Undermining Israel, so as to appease Islamist sensibilities, and thus enable withdrawal from the war on Islamist terror on the cheap at Israel’s expense, is at the top of the agenda of the forces that got Obama into the White House. It is not much of an exaggeration to say that this is the whole reason for his presidency. The rest is mere detail.
As to Bibi, this is only speculation on may part, but I strongly suspect that Obama has brought him to heel by means of a threat to back the PA in the UN if he doesn’t play along.
Remember, everybody, when Abbas formally applied for full statehood to the UNSC back in September of ’11?
Now, has that ever been voted on by the UNSC? The answer is no. And that is what Obama has kept in his hip pocket as his major trump card against Israel. He has saved that for his second term, so that it can now be brought up to a vote, the U.S. can vote in favor – this will positively give Ms. Power an orgasm – and no political consequences for Obama himself. At least none that he gives a fiddler’s fart about.
Never mind Iran. That is not even on the table. No way is Obama going to do that, no matter what Bibi agrees to. And given that U.S. intel assets are trained on Israel to the extent they are, such that an IDF pilot cannot so much as pass wind in the direction of Tehran without Obama knowing about it, I can’t see Israel making a more on Iran, either. Thus, unless Israel is willing to launch a strike of such proportions – that would probably have to involve WMDs – that Obama tipping off Iran to the same would not make any difference, that is not happening, either. I don’t put the likelihood of an independent Israeli strike at higher than 20% at this point.
To the extent that I give credence to Debka in this case, it is because the press is so eerily, totally controlled on this issue right now. I have seen nothing like this until now. Everybody “knows” these talks will fail, but there is barely a peep of dissent in the national media, anywhere. The question that begs to be asked, that no one asks in the national media, is why America’s top diplomat is 1000% engaged, to the exclusion of everything else going on in the world, in this ‘hopeless’ enterprise. I recently read in the WSJ that White House insiders have confirmed that this is not Kerry’s personal initiative in any event, that Obama has been squarely behind this effort all along. That tells me everything I need to know.
In the entire national media right now, so far as I can tell, almost nothing is being said about this, and what little is being said, is in lockstep with the Obama admin’s agenda: borders, Jerusalem, refugeess, security. The same points he laid out in his horrendous May ’11 speech. NOTHING about Pali recognition of Israel as a Jewish state. NOTHING about totally legitimate Israeli objections that Jerusalem is non-negotiable, that ROR for the Palis is a total non-starter. Nothing at all. Anywhere. Not on FOX, not in the WSJ, and the rest were always in Obama’s corner anyway.
In defense of Bibi, I would offer that the situation he faces is surreal in the extreme, for a world leader. His most important strategic ally is deliberately putting him in a situation in which if he doesn’t agree to a humiliating debacle…this “ally” will create a situation that probably results in Israel’s expulsion from the UN. Who else faces anything like this? Who else ever did?
All the same, he has to defend his country. Easy for me to say, not being in his shoes, but I’d still tell Obama to go to hell. And if the Palis launched Intifada Three, I’d crush them mercilessly; there would be no more PA in J&S by the time I got done. I’d do my damnedest to ensure that not a single top PA political or military leader lived through that fight. No escaping to Tunisia. They are finished.
And that could well result in Israel being expelled from the UN. It could very well fracture the U.S.-Israeli alliance, whatever is left of it by now (a virtual certainty with Obama in the WH), with all attendant consequences for material logistical support of the IDF, etc. But that would not be the end of the world for Israel. China, India, South Korea, Singapore, Taiwan, even Russia, would probably go on trading with Israel, no matter what lip service they paid to the plight of the Poor Oppressed Overburdened Palestinians (i.e., “POOP”). She’d manage, and after Obama is gone, things would settle down.
Bibi does not have the guts to risk this, which, while understandable, is still not excusable, given the stakes involved.
At this point, the best hope for Israel is that Bibi’s government will fall as a result of these “negotiations”, and a leader with real balls will take his place, and stand up to Obama. If Egypt can tell Obama to piss off, why not Israel?
“What kind of a nation makes its own people homeless to please a defeated enemy?”
A defeated enemy, yes, but an enemy who wants all Jews of Israel dead nonetheless. I wouldn’t give these animals a red cent. Anti-Jewish bigots around the world are salivating profusely while imagining a nation of Jews paying immense amounts of money to those of Islam’s terrorist culture who feel peace only when Jews are being murdered. What a sick world we live in.
@ yamit82:
This is a question that should be shouted from every rooftop for all to hear.
I hope that once internalized, the Jews of Israel will hasten to wake up from this surreal slumber that they are in and reverse the tide.
@ yamit82:
New elections will have the effect of blunting the pressures from the outside like Obama and EU. That’s democracy… !!! 🙂
bernard ross Said:
Date is usually agreed upon consultations among the major parties. They mostly want to stretch the time out as long as they can.
4-6 months is the usual minimum and I’ve seen them go almost as long as year. The governing parties in coalition retain all powers in the interim but major decisions are ethically and morally put off till after elections. I don’t think BB could get away with pushing his agenda to the end in a lame-duck status. The people might rise up and vote against his agenda as a punitive response.
There is always the difference between what is legal and what is ethical and moral. Some things are just not done even if they are legally permissible.
yamit82 Said:
does the snap election take 4-6 months? If so can BB make major decisions during that period?
Comment #3 still in moderation
@ bernard ross:
If BB has too strong an opposition from his party and Base he will probably call a snap election using it as a referendum. That can delay elections for 4-6 months and then anything can happen.
yamit82 Said:
how was he brought down, through political and party tactics? If he was brought down through tactical errors then he may have planned for that in advance. He may have learned from his mistakes. He certainly appears to have planned winning the election through right/center and being already offered left support if others leave the coalition.
Basically, a crap shoot implies that he has as much chance of pulling off a trick, and surviving politically, as not.
If he is subject to heavy personal blackmail then politically losing one election is not as bad as disclosure. In Obamas case suicide would be better than disclosure. The scandals which are showing now are already too huge if evidence proving them true is released.
@ bernard ross:
When Sharon broke from the Likud, the Likud had a majority. He left the Likud taking with him more than half and was still the largest party.
Sharon had the backing of most of the opposition and together cobbled out a ruling coalition till the elections. In the election he got 43 seats and likud 12 with BB.
BB is not Sharon nobody likes or trusts him and the only ones who fear him are the party hacks and hangers on who need him to keep their seats and ministerial jobs. If Lieberman supports him I wouldn’t be shocked but surprised. The religious party’s might take their revenge on him but who knows with them it’s all about money. BB will gladly pay any price. Will a fading Lapid join BB and the religious parties? Tricky!!
Likes like a crap shoot from here. Would BB risk it so soon after the last elections?? He has made the same mistakes in the past and lost big.
He was warned if he want to Wye and gave away anything he would be brought down. He went gave away the kitchen sink and was brought down soon afterwards. He was not just surprised but shocked.
Bear Klein Said:
I agree.
That said I am wondering what israpundit Israelis think the outcome of the postulated scenario would be:
I read Debka but I must say they must be read with with more than a grain of salt. Their stories where no one else writes about, pan out about 10% – 15% of the time. They are exclusive here and OFF BASE I would wager!!
Comment in moderation that’s two today in moderation.
@ NormanF:
Let me understand Kerry wants to know how much financial support Israel will give to the Palis while dismantling settlements costing over $100,000.000,000??? We are struggling today with a 50 billion shekel budget deficit. BB agreed
Separation of forces contingents from UNIFIL or NATO is in line with Samantha Powers vision.
Hard for me to imagine even our left accepting some of these terms? But BB is an extremest coward and will go down in flames covering his ass for allowing Iran to get the bomb when he is out of office and out of Israel in all probability.
In the peace talks, the Arabs refuse to move a single village of their own, but insist on destroying dozens, possibly hundreds of Jewish villages. What kind of a nation makes its own people homeless to please a defeated enemy? Decades after being evicted from our homes by Nazis—and a few years later, by the Arabs—how can Jews swallow the insult of being evicted again? Jews, heads down, in tears, would walk away from their houses, and the fourth-strongest army in the world would stand idle, unable to protect them. Oh, no: the army will busy itself evicting Jews from their villages as the Arabs dance and cheer nearby. As usual in pogroms, the Jews will dig graves, this time to unearth the bodies, to bring hundreds of thousands of corpses to new cemeteries lest the Arabs throw them to swine. In a few hours, the Arabs would enter the abandoned villages and turn synagogues into stables or burn them down.
Debkafile is not very reliable.
Its possible to achieve an interim accord but the big question remains what are the Arabs going to offer to allow Netanyahu to sell an accord to his own government? Keep in mind that Arab concessions are reversible, Israeli concessions aren’t.
jerusalem, judea samria are IRREVERSIBLE ISSUES!!!
invertebrate quisling kapos, unfortunately, are a dime a dozen AND making the decissions on these very issues.
he must NOT be allowed to move forward, by whatever means are necessary!!!!!!!!