T. Belman. The last thing the US wants is for China/Russia/Iran axis to take over the Middle East and Africa. That is one of the reasons the US keeps financing Iran and tolerates its terrorism. To avoid this axis from taking over, the US has no choice but to create a Middle East NATO that would be a bullwork to prevent this from happening.
The axis of China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea is stepping up its attacks on the United States–led world order. But media coverage fails to connect the dots among the growing number of global crises.
Walter Russell Mead argues in the Wall Street Journal that the Commission on the National Defense Strategy’s recent report, which concludes that the US faces its “most serious and most challenging” threats since 1945, should serve as a wake-up call about the dangers of American weakness.
To discuss this report, Rebeccah L. Heinrichs hosted two members of the commission at Hudson. Key takeaways from the event are below.
Watch the event, read the transcript, or listen here.
Key Insights
1. Increasing defense spending makes war less likely. Complacency makes war more likely.
“Some folks in the commentariat who’ve read our report and criticized it said you just guys want to throw more money at defense, and you build forces to go to war, and if you build it, we’ll go to war. This is not about that. This is about restoring America’s ability to deter conflict. . . . We have to restore our ability to deter conflict because the cost of conflict will be infinitely higher than what it will cost us to try and prevent it.”
— Eric Edelman
“The complacency that we sense across the US is a very dangerous thing that is not helping to motivate the people in Washington who speak for them to do the right thing on the defense budget and a number of other matters. We are hoping to use this report to change that.”
— Mariah Sixkiller
2. While American political unity declines, bonds within the China–Russia–Iran–North Korea axis are growing.
“It breaks my heart to see the breakdowns in Congress. I remember when it really worked well. I started up there in 1999, and it’s unfortunately not working the way it used to. We used to pass the [appropriations] bills. There was a different number back then, but on time. We used to pass the NDAA, the National Defense Authorization Act, on time for the fiscal year. And that’s just not happening anymore, and it’s really problematic.”
— Mariah Sixkiller
“How has Russia been able to go on and, despite the enormous equipment losses that they’ve suffered in Ukraine, continue to fight the way they have and wreak death and destruction on the civilian population of Ukraine? Well, it’s because they’re being largely financed by the People’s Republic of China, assisted by transfers of, first of all, some goods that are skirting US export controls that come in through China, but also provision of precision machining. That’s allowed the Russian defense industry to go on a three-shift, 24-hour-a-day basis, wartime footing. When you add to that literally millions of shells [and] 152mm rounds for Russian artillery from North Korea, thousands and thousands of drones provided by Iran, and a factory for drone production built by Iran in Russia. That’s how it’s worked.”
— Eric Edelman
3. The US-led alliance system is the greatest guarantor of American security. But Washington needs to reduce regulations that prevent collaboration among allies.
“Our system of alliances is, has been, and remains our huge comparative strategic advantage over these four malefactors of the world. . . . We need more out of allies, that’s for sure. And that’s across the board, whether it’s in Europe, in the Middle East, or in the Pacific. But we have to have the framework.”
— Eric Edelman
“We applaud, in the report, initiatives like AUKUS, which has extraordinary potential, but is going so slowly. And despite Congress working really hard and doing wonderful work to relax the [International Traffic in Arms Regulations] and other roadblocks to effective implementation of Pillar 2, it’s still costing the UK, for example, upwards of a billion dollars a year just to comply with the exemptions they have to seek in order to collaborate in earnest with us.”
— Mariah Sixkiller
Quotes may be edited for clarity and length.
Go Deeper
This week Hudson launched a limited series, Rising Axis, to examine how the axis of aggressors is countering the United States and its allies. Over the next seven weeks, the newsletter will showcase the depth of Hudson’s analysis on how to compete with and defeat this axis.
“The axis of adversaries has discovered that the most direct way to break this US-led order is to undermine the credibility of America’s military alliances,” warns Rebeccah L. Heinrichs. In a new essay compilation, deterrence experts explain how the US can adapt its strategic posture to secure American alliances and defend the US-led order.
On The Bulletin, Rebeccah L. Heinrichs explains why Americans—and America’s allies—would be worse off in a China-dominated world.
Hi, Edgar
I agree with you. I’ve read Qur’an completely through, twice. It’s against their religion to keep their agreements.
Hi, Ted. You said,
Have you been to the US lately? The US cannot create order in its own borders. How are we supposed to create a “New Middle Eastern Order” based on…
NATO?
Have you been to Europe lately?
After reading to “unprovoked aggression” I realized Rebeca does not fully understand what is going on.
A genuine Middle East NATO would definitely be a bulwark against aggression from the Middle East Axis.
That is if the extremely “changeable” Arabs could be relied on rto KEEP THEIR AGREEMENTS at ALL costs. That would remain to be seen.
We have seen overmuch of the opposite, in fact the Arabs we mostly have to deal with have NEVER kept a single agreed-on path with Israel.
The situation is that they an we sin , all go home thankfully (Israel) and before we get to sleep that night the Arabs have already broken their solemn oaths.
Of course, because Arabs are notorious liars they are constantly forgiven, and Israeli memories seem very short- except for visceral events like the murders on the Altalena……. and Yair Stern murdered in cold blood in an apartment, unarmed defenceless……….really executed.
Only individuals like me still think about Chaim Arlosseroff.
America created this axis, (ore at least energized it), by the stupid Ukraine proxy war. Dumb asses.
I’m glad to see a post that clearly states that Russia-China-N. Korea-Iran are all on one side; despitesome assertions on Israpundit repeatedly denying this. I’m also glad to see Eric Edelman’s concession that Russia is suffering huge losses, and shows no prospects for victory in the forseeable future; These facts should be obvious to disinterested observers, despite wild ravings to the contrary by the likes of Scott Ritter.
From what I can see,
1. The Russia-Ukraine conflict, at its current pace, is headed for a prolonged, destructive stalemate,
2. If President Trump becomes the 47th US President, this is not a guaranty of favor or of disaster for EITHER side. He plans to negotiate an end to the war quickly, before Inauguration Day.
3. The rest, as far as I can see, is just noise.
Rebecca is right. An excellent analysis of U.S. weakening position in the world.
@Ted. Giving money, ignoring the laws requiring an embargo on Iran, and other assistance to Iran will not persuade them to end their relationships with Russia, China, North Korea, etc. Why should it? They can just take out money and continue their relationships with their other “friends.” And that is exactly what they are doing.