T. Belman. Upon hearing of Trump’s withdrawal, I tried my best to leave open the possibility that he was doing a good thing. This article expresses what I always thought and now think. I am now hoping that he will be dissuaded from following through.
By Rovvy Lepor, AMERICAN THINKER
President Trump, without consultation with Republican leaders in Congress, announced his planned immediate withdrawal from Syria. If President Trump follows through on his planned withdrawal, it will translate into one of the biggest national security blunders in recent history, will embolden our most dangerous enemies, and will endanger the security of the United States and our allies. A withdrawal from Syria is a betrayal to the forces of good and a great gift to the forces of evil, and it must not happen.
President Trump issued a surprise announcement on December 19 that the U.S. would immediately begin pulling out all 2,000 U.S. troops stationed in Syria. President Trump stated that since the U.S. has defeated ISIS in Syria and he does not wish to leave troops in harm’s way, it is time to immediately withdraw for their benefit and safety. However, if one is a student of history and is attuned to current events, it is abundantly clear that a U.S. withdrawal from Syria will almost certainly require a later return of a much larger U.S. military presence and a major war in the Middle East. This war will almost certainly claim many lives in the Middle East, including a high number of U.S. troops.
In the Middle East, there are many moving parts. Iran is the mortal enemy of the United States and is determined to achieve a large nuclear arsenal. It wishes to bring its mahdi (messiah) through a violent and bloody war on the Iranian regime’s enemies (which includes Europe), and it calls for the destruction of the United States and Israel in regime-sponsored rallies. Iran has a presence in Syria. Hezb’allah has a presence in Syria. Russia has a presence in Syria. And Turkey occupies part of Syria.
All of these forces would benefit from a U.S. troop withdrawal. Not only is the presence of U.S. troops paramount, but the location of the troops at the al-Tanf base is of especially great strategic importance. According to Omar Lamrani, a senior military analyst at Stratfor, Iran cares so much about this military base because it blocks the Baghdad-Damascus highway, which Iran uses to transport weapons to Syria. According to Lamrani, the reason Iran wants the land route “is that it’s easier to bring [weapons] across land in greater quantities, and the shipping route is very vulnerable to Israeli interception, and the air route is expensive and often gets hit by Israeli airstrikes.”
Even though the United States has been successful against ISIS, it is premature to say ISIS has been defeated. According to a Department of Defense report from April-June 2018, there were about 13,000 ISIS terrorists in Syria and about another 17,000 in Iraq. It is important to remember that when U.S. troops pulled out of Iraq under President Obama, it allowed ISIS to form and dramatically increase the threat to Iraq and Syria and rapidly increase territory under their control, leading to the return of U.S. troops to fight ISIS forces. A withdrawal of U.S. forces now could have repeat consequences.
Turkey seeks to further its attacks on the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), a critically important U.S. ally. Turkey has also encouraged President Trump to withdraw troops from Syria. It is in large part thanks to the Kurdish-led SDF that the U.S. has successfully beaten back ISIS in Syria. The SDF has been at the forefront of the fight against ISIS and must not be abandoned, particularly when Turkish president Erdo?an recently announced that he plans an imminent attack on that group.
According to a report in Al-Monitor, President Erdo?an threatened to launch a military campaign to oust the Kurdish YPG (which leads the SDF) from areas west of the Euphrates. Currently, the Kurds control about 30% of Syrian territory. Erdo?an said he spoke with President Trump and told him the YPG needs “to go to the east of the Euphrates. If they don’t, we will force them out, because they are disturbing us[.] … Since the U.S. is our strategic ally, they need to do what is necessary.” Erdo?an said President Trump gave “a positive response” and noted that Turkey “can start [its] operation on Syrian soil at any moment along the 500-kilometer [300-mile] border, in particular without causing harm to American soldiers … [and] will comb every inch of Syrian territory until the last terrorist is neutralized.” The Pentagon said any unilateral military action in northeast Syria is unacceptable.
Russia praised the decision to withdraw U.S. troops from Syria, claiming that it “creates good prospects for a political solution” in Syria. A pullback enables Russia to be the unchallenged superpower in the region and enables Iran and Hezb’allah to be much freer to become more entrenched and dangerous.
Israel will have to counter growing threats from Iran and Hezb’allah without the counterweight of a U.S. presence in Syria, and it will have to study the implications of a U.S. withdrawal. One obvious implication is the likely rapid increase in the arsenals of Iran and Hezb’allah due to the effective opening of the highway linking Iraq and Syria.
In October 2018, Israel’s internal security minister, Gilad Erdan, announced that Hezb’allah’s arsenal of missiles and rockets stands at about 150,000. Hezb’allah has the capability to strike anywhere in Israel, including rockets that can hit the southern city of Eilat about three minutes after launch.
According to an October report from the JINSA (Jewish Institute for National Security of America)’s Gemunder Center Hybrid Warfare Task Force, “Hezbollah possesses more firepower than 95 percent of the world’s conventional militaries and more rockets and missiles than all European NATO members combined.” The JINSA report warns about how a future Hezb’allah attack on Israel would be much worse than any previous conflict. Israel’s recent discovery of a number of Hezb’allah’s cross-border attack tunnels into Israel increases concerns about Hezb’allah’s preparations for war.
According to a report in Der Spiegel, Syria is engaged in a nuclear weapons program near the Syrian city of Qusayr. The suspected nuclear reactor is protected by the Syrian military and Hezb’allah terrorists and poses a serious threat to U.S. forces in the region and U.S. allies. In a recent analysis of the Der Spiegel report, coauthored by David Albright of the Institute for Science and International Security (and formerly an IAEA nuclear weapons inspector), the authors write: “Some imagery observations are consistent with Der Spiegel’s reporting. Although we fully understand the limitations and risks of the following approach, we believe that this site warrants inspection by the IAEA.” In light of previous revelations of Syria’s Al Kibar nuclear reactor, destroyed in a 2007 Israeli raid, such Syrian endeavors are no surprise.
There are so many dangers present in Syria and the Middle East and so many threats to the security interests of the United States and our allies that can be properly addressed only with continued direct U.S. involvement in Syria through a continued strong military presence on the ground. A pullout of U.S. troops would be a boon to U.S. foes, including Iran, Syria, and Hezb’allah, and would make catastrophic war that much more likely. The U.S. must serve as a bulwark against these threats rather than surrender to them.
yamit82 Said:
It is mainly my support of Israel that I oppose Trump’s plan for Syria and find it amusing that you are so blind not to see it that way also.
I did expect him to win and said so early in the campaign. Was thrilled Rotten Clinton lost for starters and waited to see how Trump would perform as president…Some things good some things less good so far…
He may be your Messiah but he ain’t mine….. Note don’t know where u got your notions about Jews from but we are a stiff-necked argumentive critical people, we argue and fight among ourselves over everything, consider it a tribal inbred trait. Where is it written that Americans and non-Americans cannot be critical of our leaders???? Don’t know why you find the need to include Jews and christians in your arguments, criticisms and defense against our views of you?
@ yamit82:
Yamit,
You seem to be trying to talk to me; so before Ted bans me for some imaginary offense, I will try to answer you.
“A- I don’t think I ever claimed to be Jewish??”
You did aliyah and went to fight for Israel; and you stayed. Is that being Jewish?
” B- What do you think a sense of trust & faithfulness has to do specifically with being or not being Jewish??”
I asked Ted to instruct me on these matters. My Bible says that the God of Israel is a faithful God. It says “the just shall live by faith”, It says a man should not defraud his neighbor… stuff like that. That, at least, is what Torah says. That’s all I know of Judaism. Perhaps in the “advanced” classes of religious studies, you read that none of this is true. I wouldn’t know. All I know, is that you seem to have the strangest idea of what is “trustworthy”, of anyone I’ve ever met.
“I was referring to Trump and as a supporter of his agenda I expected him to stand by most of the important parts of his stated agenda. Key among them repeal and replace Obama care, The wall with full funding in his first term, Strengthening the middle class with big tax cuts that are permanent, judges, ISIS specifically but radical Islam generally,..”
The president has done all these things. Concerning ISIS, he authorized a continued US presence in Syria specifically to fight ISIS. He was not there to support Kurdish independence, and made this clear. The Kurds even reorganized their militias to include non-Kurds, to make it clear to the world that this was strictly an anti-ISIS fight. After the US-led coalition in Syria had driven ISIS out of its last strongholds on the Euphrates, he convened with key players and determined that it was time to pull out the US troops. He had made promises to the American people, and he kept them. He made NO promises to fight for Kurdish autonomy, nor to fight against the Assad regime. He was completely trustworthy and completely faithful. If some don’t understand this, it is because they haven’t been paying attention to him and to events.
“Obama care has neither been repealed or replaced.” That is DESPITE the president’s efforts: He has been opposed by the House and Senate (both controlled by his own party, some of whom are traitors), and by the courts. He cannot control who is in the Congress; but he heartily campaigned during the mid-term elections, to get candidates elected who are committed to replacing Obamacare. What’s more, he did manage to get the key part of the ACA repealed; and one court has recognized that this makes the whole act unconstitutional. By the time the appeals make it up to the Supreme Court, there is a good chance that Obamacare will be defeated.
“The Wall not funded or built just mostly repairs and not a cent into a real wall as promised…”
Yamit, Donald Trump is not Moses, nor, lest I be called an “antisemite” for mentioning Moses, Jesus. He cannot part the sea, nor can he walk on it; but it would be ludicrous to say he is “not keeping his promises” because Chuck Schumer and the RINOs in the Senate are digging in their heels to oppose the wall. That is not the President’s fault.
“Illegal immigration today is as bad as any time in the past. No real end to problem in sight,…”
Again, this is Trump’s fault? The lack of a wall, the Soros-funded caravans, the sanctuary cities, the attacks on ICE — none of that is the fault of the President.
Draining the swamp? You said,
“Most swamp dwellers still in place and working against him and most of his nominations and hires have been DEEP STATE SWAMP DWELLERS”
You are correct on this point. It seems there are no creatures other than the snakes and alligators, available for government positions. He could put Javanka in charge of the whole government; but outside of them, everyone in Washington seems to be career politician or bureaucrat — and even Javanka seems to favor swamp denizens.
Is that why you distrust the president? because he hasn’t drained the swamp? If that’s so, then I have been wrong about you. Yes, he has fallen short in this key point; and it is an important point.
Concerning Syria, though, he has not been unfaithful: He made no promise to stay, or to continue fighting for the Kurds. You know that the US is tied to Turkey through the NATO treaty and other agreements. As far as I can see, the US is not obligated to help the Turks fight the Kurds except in the European portion of Turkey; but neither are we authorized to oppose them in Syria. Technically, what happens in Syria is Assad’s business.
I’m sorry I was so quick to question your moral values.
Yamit82
Trump may be the things you say but you are biased against Trump the American because you are anti American.
But even if what you say is 100 per cent correct,a nd it may be, Trump is facing incredible and Fascist opposers, and he did not deserve that, and could not have foreseent this form of Fascism in America. He does not have a grasp of Fascism.
But you are a person who is effectively against Trump in his hour of need just as you supported with Ross ISIS in Syria.
Politically speaking I consider you as being…well nothing really, no character, just a loud mouth.
Michael
Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu’s rejoinder: “Our actions against Iran’s military establishment in Syria will continue,” he said on Wednesday. “We stand by our red lines.” And Air Force chief Maj. Gen. Amikam Nurkin said: “By means of an extraordinary joint effort, we have thwarted Iran’s drive for an active military foothold on our northern border. We are not done yet. If necessary, we are ready for more ground and air operations.”
https://www.debka.com/moscow-israeli-air-strike-hazarded-beirut-damascus-civilian-aircraft-weighs-extending-syrias-missile-shield-to-lebanon/
The chance was missed. Netanyahu leading Israel had the chance to form an alliance in the context of a United Front with Russia and Assad, with Obama and Cameron possible opposing but exposed, with Trump arising against Obama, and the condition would have been to keep Iran out of Syria. Hezbollah also of course. I think Edgar agreed and understood the chance that was there/
But that chance was missed. There is always a price to pay for bad leaders.
Would my strategy have been accepted? I think so. There was a good chance. But we cannot tell the future. Everything is a gamble.
The relationship of the Alawites to Islam is very complicated, a little like the Berbers and other minorities.
My thinking on this was because I am trained in the flexibility of being a true Trotskyist. That is the reality. That fact also needs to be weighed in on the situation.
Perhaps Michael that is why people on Israpundit will never discuss this. In other words they will not give me the light of day. They seek to censure me (Adam certainly, Ted for a very long time is cold as the frozen snow)
As for Yamit…She, plus the lady from Texas whose name I can never remember, and Bernard Ross were supporting ISIS.
I repeat that ..supporting ISIS…ON ISRAPUNDIT…WITHOUT A MURMUR
That also is the reality.
In that regard perhaps Michael you would draw their attention to this from a truly great Jewish woman…and do watch the video in this regard of Israpundit and its record
https://gellerreport.com/2018/12/female-tourists-beheaded-2.html/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=facebook&fbclid=IwAR26KJUgMNPndLVrLsEmoX2seAoHoMj0KZXhLVyyMDyRzzVLjQAwVwSt5wo
Michael S Said:
I trust no one blindly only a fool does. If my memory serves me Trump was highly critical of both Bush and Obama the former for getting into wars in Iraq and Afghanistan and criticized both for nation building and withdrawing troops prematurely thereby compounding their original errors, So what is he about to do now? The same thing. Is this the Trust you are advocating?
If Trump compromises on the $$ 5 billion for the wall he will lose a lot of his base. He originally wanted some 25$ billion. He has let Deep State FBI, H Rotten Clinton and Obama Gang off the hook by not declassifying all documents and making them public so they win Trump loses. He undercut those most loyal to him and his agenda in Congress by not helping them expose his enemies and he had the power to do so and had finally agreed then recanted and buried them again. He is a very weak character mercurial and will when he decides to throw any and all under the bus… (BETTER TO BE HEROD’S PIG THAN HIS SON)
Ted, let me put it bluntly. Two years ago, I voted for President Trump. I did not expect him to win, but was pleasantly surprized that he did. In fact, I have been overwhelmed over the past two years, to see how completely faithful he has been, striving, against GREAT opposition, to do the things he had promised to do during his campaign.
Here I am on Israpundit, a website that is supposed to be supportive of Israel. Yet instead of support for Israel, all I seem to see from some commenters are attacks on their own leader and especially virulent attacks against my country and my president. This is not Christian behavior and it is not Jewish behavior; it is simply rude, brutish, childish behavior.
Enough is enough!
Michael S Said:
A- I don’t think I ever claimed to be Jewish?? B- What do you think a sense of trust & faithfulness has to do specifically with being or not being Jewish??
I was referring to Trump and as a supporter of his agenda I expected him to stand by most of the important parts of his stated agenda. Key among them repeal and replace Obama care, The wall with full funding in his first term, Strengthening the middle class with big tax cuts that are permanent, judges, ISIS specifically but radical Islam generally, REBUILD THE MILITARY!! HE ALSO PROMISED TO DRAIN THE SWAMP!!!!
HE HAS DONE WELL WRT JUDGES SO FAR ALTHOUGH KAVANAH WAS NOT THE BEST CHOICE (I DON’T TRUST HIM)
Obama care has neither been repealed or replaced.
The Wall not funded or built just mostly repairs and not a cent into a real wall as promised. He signed off on 2 omnibus bills with no money for the wall only when his base began to revolt and conservative radio talk shows began to bad mouth him did he do a 180 and refuse to sign a bill he already had agreed to.
Illegal immigration today is as bad as any time in the past. No real end to problem in sight,
National debt increasing at the fastest pace ever even though there are record revenues and it’s not sustainable. He has done nothing to address this HUGE problem. He increased military budgets significantly but has done nothing to rationalize waste, graft and other economies…. Hundreds of $$ Billions can be saved with strict oversight and control.
ISIS by all counts has not yet been defeated…. reports of 30 air attacks against ISIS in the past few days means they are still there and viable. So he lied about defeating ISIS. It was mostly the Kurds with American air strikes that have reduced ISIS in Syria America has only lost a couple of soldiers and one by accident, it is the Kurds mainly who did the fighting and dying. Trump is set to betray them for their Loyalty and efforts. Abandoning Israel at least symbolically as well sends a negative message to all our enemies and some friends… Putin is a happy camper with the news and if Putin is happy with Trump it’s bad for Israel and bad for America.
NO I DON’T TRUST TRUMP OR AMERICA WRT ISRAEL AND WHAT HE IS TRYING TO DO IN THE REGION. IMO HE IS MAKING A BAD SITUATION WORSE AND IT WILL COST HIM AMERICA AND ISRAEL IN THE FUTURE.
He has done next to nothing to drain the wamp!!! Most swamp dwellers still in place and working against him and most of his nominations and hires have been DEEP STATE SWAMP DWELLERS AND ALMOST NONE ON BOARD WITH HIS AGENDA BUT HIS PICKS FOR ALL POSITIONS LEAVE A LOT OF ??? OF WHAT THE HELL IS HE DOING AND WHO IS ADVISING HIM … javanka????
HIS RECORD TO DATE IS MIXED BUT DOESN’T LOOK LIKE ANY IMPROVEMENT FROM HERE WITH A DEM HOUSE AND PELOSI IN CHARGE…….
Lastly you showed your real inner Jew hating bias in your comment pls re-read. It’s clear to all Jews reading your tripe.
Ted, is this some kind of guessing game? I have been accused, first by Bear and now, it seems, by you as well, of being anti-Jewish. I am not. I have the highest regard for Judaism. It is through Judaism, that the world has a clear picture of what is right and what is wrong, what is fair and what is unfair. Nothing I have said here, reflects any other sentiment.
Just what you’re trying to get at, is beyond me. Is it because I criticized Yamit? He said my president was being “unreliable” and “untrustrowthy” because he is pulling our troops out of Syria. I questioned whether these were values he learned as a Jew. Are they what YOU learned as a Jew? When a man promises not to get permanently entangled in disputes he has no part in, and then CARRIES OUT HIS WORD, is he being “untrustworthy”? Is this what Judaism teaches? Perhaps it is. I am not a Jew; perhaps I missed something. I was of the opinion that Judaism does not teach these things; so either Yamit is wrong or Judaism is wrong. You tell me which is the case.
Please, teach me about Judaism. I’m all ears!
Michael S Said:
No. you misread yourself. Figure it out.
@ Bear Klein:
Bear,
After Ted’s comment, I see your otherwise incomprehensible rant in a different light. Are you attacking ME as being an antisemite? Because I said Yamit thinks like a piss-poor example of a Jew? He seems to think that up is down, down is up, and keeping one’s word is being “untrustworthy”. Is that what you think as well? Is that what YOU think Judaism should be about?
I expect you to slander me — not for anything about who I am or what I say, but simply because you are a low creature.
@ Ted Belman:
Ted,
I wasn’t addressing you, but Yamit. He claims to be Jewish, but his sense of “trust” and “faithfulness” seems to come from another planet. I think you misread me.
Donald trump has proved himself to be a man of his word, more than any other president I can think of.
Michael S Said:
Michael, that was uncalled for..
I totally support Terump and believe he is not stabbing Israel or the Kurds in the back.
How clear some peoples dislike for Jews always comes out they never can hide it!
@ yamit82:
“(Trump) has shown that he cannot be trusted or relied upon…”
Yamit, I see that you have an interesting set of values about who is to be trusted. President Trump has promised to defeat ISIS, and has done so. He promised to not get entangled in ME wars, and he has kept his promise. Apparently, you only trust people who do NOT keep their word. Is that the way Jews understand “trust”?
Like Obama, Trump is eroding American credibility
The US pullout from Syria is both a strategic and a moral mistake
Why is this bombing needed ISIS defeated, Trump said so? Answer
“ISIS presents a very real threat to the long-term stability in this region and our mission remains the same, the enduring defeat of ISIS,” said UK Major General Christopher Ghika, the deputy commander of the coalition.
So Trump did not know what was going on when he decided to pull out of Syria when talking to Erodgan?
https://www.newsmax.com/newsfront/us-forces-strike-isis/2018/12/25/id/895797/
Michael S Said:
Te Troops are not the issue. Trump is! He has shown that he cannot be trusted or relied upon and that will affect every country …. “Caveat emptor” At Least it seems his move will kill his “Deal Of The Century”
adamdalgliesh Said:
Spitting in Trump’s eye !! Playing both sides is an old game with Turkey. NATO allies are not allowed to purchase military hardware for outside the alliance especially from Russia.
Turkey: US missile deal does not affect S-400 purchase from Russia
Ankara’s plan to buy advanced anti-missile system from Moscow has drawn criticism from NATO allies
Lots of speculation by certain commenters here — all of whom, I am very happy to say, have nothing to do with steering the course of the US.
The troops are coming home. Live with it.
@ adamdalgliesh:
Adam Sorry to break in….. this is the “reliable report” I mentioned yesterday just 4 posts above..
President Trump’s unintended message to Israel: If you give up an inch of the Judea and Samaria aka”West Bank” under my crazy “Deal of the Century,” you’re stupider than a rock. Relying on a Trump “Peace” deal is like riding blindfolded on a Trump banana peel on an MBS/Saudi skate-board against traffic on a six-lane Iran super-highway. Syria isn’t just Iran’s pathway to Lebanon, but to any “West Bank” Palestinian Arab State. Israel better solidify its hold of the “West Bank” quickly because the next American President (either sooner or later) will likely be an Israel-hating BDS-supporting democrat who will overtly call Israel an Apartheid State.” Mark Langfan http://www.israelnationalnews.com/Articles/Article.aspx/23208
The latest report about the Syrian withdrawal from Debka and AI Monitor indicate that Trump has acted more responsibly and with much greater preparation and forethought than initial reports alleged. He kept his plan secret from his own top advisors, or at any rate some of them. But that may be because he didn’t trust them not to leak the plans prematurely or reign in protest before he was ready to announce it. Being devious and being irresponsible are not always the same thing.
Clearly Trump was following the advice of some analysts who have been monitoring the Syrian situation closely, such as the experts cited by AI Monitor. He propably even consulted with the Kurdish leaders. He is struggling to bring about a ‘deal of the century” in Syria that will result in a settlement that is reasonably fair to everyone, while at the same time giving the U.S. a viable exit strategy. It may or may not work, but it is a reasonable gamble. And it is probably reversible if the Kurds and America’s allies face a real catastrophe at the hands of Erdogan or Assad.
Trump: Turkey’s Erdogan is the man for the job in Syria
just hours after Netanyahu dubbed Erdogan ‘anti-Semitic dictator, President Trump says Turkish leader the right man for the job in Syria
@ Bear Klein:
Trump shipped 150 truckloads of arms and munitions to the Kurds from Iraq but seriously they the Kurds, have A- no training with some of the weapons shipped and B- have no heavy artillery planes or tanks….
Whatever was shipped to the Kurds will not stop the Turks nor even slow them down if they are serious.
Lessons in how to turn a loyal ally into a mortal enemy.
Is this the Trumpian idea of Max pressure on Iran?
Turkey Turns on America
December 19, 2018. The date the Trump maximum pressure campaign against Iran turned from a serious effort to a rhetorical joke…that “pulling U.S. troops out of Syria would be a gift to Putin and to the mullahs in Tehran. And it would be a disastrous gift for the region
According to most recent reports, ISIS still has an estimated 20,000 to 30,000 fighters just in Syria & Iraq.
Reminds of Bush’s “Mission Accomplished” on May 1, 2003.
. More than anything, this is an extraordinary insult to the recent efforts of Amb. Jeffrey. Trump isn’t only doing what #Obama did in leaving #Iraq prematurely, he’s doing it in an environment in which America’s adversaries will benefit: jihadis, Iran and Russia. Unbelievable hubris.
Iran’s land corridor is established. IRGC will have a straight shot from Tehran to the Mediterranean for the first time since 1979
Turks were bragging that Turkey knew about Trump’s decision on U.S. forces before the Pentagon and State Department did. That’s…disturbing.
With his decision on Syria, Trump has effectively handed Syria to Russia, Iran, Assad, Hezbollah and Turkey. Obama’s red line debacle was a dark day for American leadership in the Middle East. This is far worse.
Against the advice of all of his senior advisors at the Pentagon, State Department, and White House, Trump offers an early Christmas gift to Putin, Assad, and Khamenei.
Turkey happy. Russia happy. Iran happy. Israel upset. Syrian Kurds rushing to cut a deal with Assad.
The First Time ISIS Raises their flag over new territory Trump will lose the next elections…. Trump will go down in history as a BIG loser synonymous with Chamberlain
@ Edgar G.:
There have already been some Turkish shooting at the Kurds in Syria and they are massing troops and tanks on the border readying to invade Northern Syria.
“Turkey masses troops near Kurdish-held town in northern Syria
Buildup comes despite Ankara saying it would delay offensive after US pullout announced”
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/dec/23/turkey-masses-troops-near-kurdish-held-town-in-northern-syria
@ adamdalgliesh:
Adam….there’s NO WAY on earth that the Russian troops would make a mass attack on the main US troops there. That would be WAR ..in no uncertain terms. How many US troops have been killed in Syria since Trump sent the 2000 there. I believe only one and maybe another who got a broken arm from a vehicle accident.
Everybody seems to be going into frenzies of mass hysteria over this decision of Trumps. It’s been reliably reported that he has made very adequate provision for others to take up the slack. Also that he made Erdogan promise NOT to cross the Euphrates….also I think, to leave the US allied Kurds alone.
Whether it’s actually as I’ve said, has to be seen in the near future. I myself don’t know but I seem to recall that the above was quoted as having come from Trump himself.
@ yamit82:
You are correct weakness results in wars and not perceived strength. USA may get taken in a limited fashion or certainly its Sunni Allies and Israel. Yes this could lead to a regional war. The Turks have already moved on the Kurds and are massing troops for a full invasion of Northern Syria.
@ adamdalgliesh:
@ adamdalgliesh:
@ adamdalgliesh:
Sometimes a cigar is justa cigar!!!
Trump is mirroring Obama’s policy in the ME.
Rand Paul and Trump aligned on Policy here and is supportive of Trumps moves.
IF YOU LIKE AND AGREE WITH RAND PAUL YOU WILL ALSO LOVE TRUMP NOT TO MENTION OBAMA.
Trump does not read briefing papers and I believe has only a superficial
understanding of both nuances and geopolitical stakes to his moves.
No one in his own security establishment is on record of supporting his moves and many are on record of opposing besides Mattis…. There was no order or process in his decision, no consultation no pre heads up to allies in and out of the region just an ad hoc decision made with Turkey…. NOKO, China, Russia, and Iran will no be emboldened and positions hardened. Trump looks like a weak leader being cowed by the likes of Erdogan. America’s adversaries understand the Power Game and are taking note! Trump is out of his league…. What happened to the art of the deal? Great negotiator??? Lot’s of myths evaporating before our eyes and his moves might result into a regional war if not broader…..
I don’t agree with the Kurdish-Turkish aspect of Trump’s decision. I think he should have warned Erdogan of serious consequences if he went through with his attack on the Kurds. Apparently Trump failed to do this.
However, I think there were very understandible reasons why he decided to give Erdogan his “green light.” I think they were the following:
1) His phone conversations with Erdogan may have convinced him that the fanatical, hate-crazed Erdogan would go through with his jihad against the Kurds regardless of what Trump said or did.
2) Erdogan could have made the withdrawal more difficult by halting U.S. overflights over Turkey and the use of the American bases in Turkey to carry out the withdrawal.
3) The American DoS, DoD, and CIA are all dead set against ending America’s supposed “alliance” with Turkey, and haven’t yet grasped that the alliance is now mythical. They are wedded to the past, when Turkey cooperated with the U.S. military and intelligence services. Trump knew that the foreign affairs and national security “deep-staters” would be very angry at him for ordering the withdrawal from Syria. But they would be even more angry with him if he suspended military aid to Turkey and imposed economic sanctions on it. Yet these were the only tools available to Trump to persuade Erdogan to cancel his invasion of Syrian Kurdistan. Trump has shown a reluctance to antagonize the extremely powerful “deep state” bureaucracy more than he has to to implement the essential elements of his foreign and domestic policies. He has struggled to co-opt as many deep -staters as he could. Now he is struggling to stay in office while a powerful coalition has coalesced to force his resignation. This coalition includes all the Democrats and many of the Republicans in Congress, most of the DoJ, and the Mueller organization, which is part of the DoJ, and of course the media. He feels he must appease the foreign policy and national security establishments, or at least some individuals in these establishments, since if he does not, they will join the coalition determined to drive him from office. He believes that if that happens, his goose is cooked.
For all these reasons, he decided to appease Erdogan, in order to appease his American “deep state” supporters.
Just to summarize my take on the Trump decision: He was concerned that America’s small, widely scattered Special Ops forces in Syria was vulnerable to a devastating attack by Russian-led forces in Syria, because they are far more numerous and better armed than U.S. and U.S.-allied forces there, have more secure lines of communication for resupplying themselves with arms than the Americans and their Kurdish allies do. Because the Kurds also have dealings with Russia and the Assad regime, he was not sure he could rely on them to fight with out troops in the event of a Russian-led attack. There is a real danger that such an attack will lead to direct clashes with Russia and a large-scale shooting war that America is not prepared to fight. And the death and or capture of a sizeable number of U.S. soldiers in Syria would be a greater blow to American power and prestige in the world than the withdrawal will be. Trump’s decision was justified on military grounds.
Just thought I would share Seth Franzmann’s latest column in the JP with our readers. Franzmann’s views and knowledge is always worth our attention, although I don’t agree with him about everything.
I think the last sentence is also something that Trmp assumed when he made his withdrawal decision.
Trump probably concluded from his conversations with Erdogan that there was nothing he could do to restrain him from invading Syrian Kurdistan, because Erdogan is a fanatical Turkish nationalist. He knew that if Erdogan really wanted to, he had ways of making the U.S. withdrawal from Syria even more dangerous for U.S. troops than it would otherwise be. And he knew that the U.S. military and CIA, which he has always tried to appease as much as he can without abandoning his overall foreign policy priorities, would be even angrier if he ended U.S. military assistance to Turkey than they would be by the Syrian withdrawal itself. As to the withdrawal itself, Trump believes it is the only way to avoid a military confrontation with Russia that would be overwhelmingly on Russian, not American terms. Better, he thinks, to deter further Russian agression by increasing our nuclear arsenal and further developing our antimissile capabilities (notice that he has unilaterally broken our ACBM treaty with Russia), then confronting Russia now, when Obama’s military cutbacks, and the general public opposition to a major shooting war overseas, making such a confrontation ill advised, and potentially resulting in a major American defeat.
https://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-long-beach-terminal-20180420-story.html
Will the US Navy stay clear of Long Beach, California?
https://www.newsmax.com/newsfront/syria-kurds-turkey-masses/2018/12/23/id/895592/
Even conservative outlets are slamming the Trumps decision (Blunder) on withdrawing from Syria.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-mattis-repercussions-11545436055?mod=rss_opinion_main
https://www.jpost.com/Arab-Israeli-Conflict/US-withdrawal-from-Syria-hurts-Israel-and-helps-Erdogan-Shaked-says-575154
Facts spoken Shaked who values the USA and Trump but calls it accurately that Turkey is being helped by retreat of the USA, and Israel and the Kurds are being hurt! In fact she saying what most US military leaders current and former are saying. Some Christians can not stand Jews saying what they believe!
@ adamdalgliesh:
Thanks, Adam
The Mrs. and I are taking a day off, so I’m afraid you’ll have to handle the acrimony by yourself. Meanwhile, the world is moving on. Turkey’s Erdogan continues to badmouth the Jews, especially of Israel, and Israel’s MK Shaked is badmouthing my country and my president. I suppose that’s the way Israelis say “Merry Christmas”! Nothing new there. Left-wingers in the US, meanwhile, are jeering the president, his wife and even the White House tree. It’s spirit, all right, but not Christmassy. My prayer for Chuck Schumer is that he gets the holiday he deserves, whatever he calls it. I’m out of here.
@ adamdalgliesh:
The actual approximately 5000 (not the reported 2k) US Troops in Syria were backed up by their reliable allies the Kurds (30,000 to 40,000) plus 1000 French troops. So trying play them as vulnerable little creatures is painting the wrong picture. They were also supported by air assets residing in Qatar and carriers.
They made the air units stronger by “painting’ targets of insurgents. The US has F22s & F35s so trying to attack the US bases would be disaster for the attacker.
Just ask the Russian Mercenaries (plus Hezbollah) who attacked past the Euphrates and got smashed by, artillery (US) Kurdish fighters and F22s. 500 Crossed the Euphrates but hardly any went back except for the wounded.
So the creative picture building of trying to pretend this meager US Force was hapless is not accurate.
@ adamdalgliesh:
I believe the USA needs to be out of Turkey altogether as they are more enemy than ally. That airbase in Eastern Turkey holds the US military more hostage than it helps. It was cut off during the first Gulf War. When the Turks had their uprising a years the USA military was put on lock down by the Turks.
@ adamdalgliesh:
US Forces in Syria can be supplied via Jordan and Israel plus the Gulf. Turkey is not needed. The USA has massive warehouses in Israel and Jordan of supplies. So I know you are hard trying to figure what is going on but this line of thinking is not valid.
@ adamdalgliesh:Israel by the way needs a new Haifa Port. The bid was put out to the whole world and only a Chinese Company bid on it. The Chinese now have 38 ports worldwide they are building. They are the major country building and running ports.
They have bid on US ports also. The same security issues came in the US ports if Chinese took them over.
https://www.jpost.com/Israel-News/Israel-works-to-defuse-US-concerns-over-Chinese-control-of-Haifa-Port-574936
But I think that Trump regarded the U.S. Turkish relationship as a minor side issue. His main motives were to avoid a possible direct clash with Russia, to avoid possible heavy loss of life and capture of the small, spread-out U.S. force in Syria. Ultimately, domestic U.S. politics was the most decisive factor his decision. He knew that the Syria decision would be unpopular at home. But he also knew that a military disaster for the U.S. forces in Syria would destroy whatever political support he has left in the U.S. And with American and pro-American forces vastly outnumbered in-country, he decided he had to avoid a possible military disaster there at all cost. His decision to withdraw was justified, although his decision to appease Erdogan was not.
@ Bear Klein: Both the Russian problem and the Turkish problem have made the U.S. presence own Syria untenable. Erdogan could easily have denied the U.S. overflight rights over Turkey, makiing U.S. forces in Syria and Iraq very vulnerable to attack. The U.S. could have counter-threatened him with a cutoff of military aid to Turkey. But even that might not have deterred Erdogan from taking this action, and perhaps also ordering the U.S. to evacuate the U.S. air bases in Turkey, Erdogan knows he can go to Russia for an alternative source of military supplies. I think that Trump should have defied Erdogan, come what may, and instead worked for regime change in Turkey. But if Erdogan used his power to cut off the resuply of U.S. troops in Syria and Iraq, U.S. withdrawal from these countries would still have been unavoidable to protect them from annihilation or capture.
@ Bear Klein: But what would Zumwalt and all the other military and political honchos have said if Erdogan had retaliated for Trump’s refusal to give hima green light to attack the Kurds by ordering the U.S. to evacuate its air bases in Turkey? And what would they have said if Erdogan had denied the USAF overflights over Turkey to resupply U.S. forces, not only in Turkey, but in Syria. Then the U.S. might have been forced to go to war with Turkey! Maybe even both Turkey and Russia. Trump did what he recognized he had no choice to do, both in terms of domestic politics and international strategy. He knew that the decision would be unpopular at home, but the realistic alternatives would be far more unpopular. And he is after all a politicians fighting to keep his job in the face of determined Congressional and “deep state” determinations to remove him. And so he did what he had to do.
Trump also had to consider the fact that two thousand special ops forces in Turkey are extremely vulnerable to attack, massacre and/or and capture by the many vastly larger forces in the region, including Russia and its numerous allies. Yes, this hasn’t happened yet, but it could happen at any time. This would be a political disaster for Trump at home, and it might give him little choice but to go to war with Russia in an area where Russia is much stronger. Russia, after all, has several air bases in Syria, which America does not, far more troops in Syria than the u.S., and can count on vastly more numerous and better armed allies–the Syrian regular army, Hizbollah, the Shiite mercenary force commanded by the Iranian National Guard. They vastly outnumber America’s only fairly reliable ally in-country , the Kurds. But even the Kurds are not all that eager to offend Russia, which has also given them some aid over the years. The Turks ncreasingly hostile attitude towards the United States, not to mention the Kurds, further complicates America’s position in Syria. Churchill said “wars are not won by evacuations,” but he never theless evacuated Dunkirk under fire when military necessity required it. Trump faced a similar hard choice in Syria.
@ Bear Klein: Bear, Trumps advisors have been telling him for months that U.S. strategic interests require it to maintain its alliance with Turkey, which goes back to 1948. They are wrong, but that’s what they’ve been telling Trump. They also have been telling him that the U.S. needs to keep its military base at Incarlik in eastern Turkey, and that if the Turks force us to withdraw from it, it would be a severe blow to American strategic interests and prestige. Trump then drew the logical conclusion from this premise, even though his advisors didn’t. Erdogan made it clear to Trump in their phone conversations that he was fanatically determined to crush the Kurds at all costs, and would not let anyone, even the United States, stand in his way. He undoubtdly warned Trump that unless Trump gave him a “green light” to crush the Kurds, any cooperation between Turkey and the U.S. was over. Trump then decided to act in accordance with the logical consequences of the advice he had been given about U.S.-Turkish relations, even it shocked his advisors, who are not logical thinkers, when he did. Yes, I think that the U.S. alliance with the Kurds is far more important to us in the modern world than our alliance with Turkey. But moving our Turkish bases to Iraqi Kurdistan would be a difficult feat to pull off. And the Turks would deny us overflights to supply them. I think that the U.S. should end its alliance with Turkey, end all military aid to the regime, and impose tough economic sanctions until there is regime change. But Trump would have encountered fierce resistance from the CIA and DoD if he attempted that. He knew that they would make a hullabaloo if he pulled out of Syria, but would not be as entirely uncooperative about this decision that they would have been if he had broken off aid to the Turks. Trump felt he had to make a choice between the Turks and the Kurds, and so he chose the former.
@ Michael S: I agree with most of what you say, Michael. I doubt, however, that Israel deliberately sought to harm the United States when it awarded a Chines company the contract to manage the Haifa port. After all, Chinese companies operate with impunity inside the United States. In Israel, many decisions are made by low-level bureaucrats on narrowly economic grounds, without considering international or strategic consequences. Monitoring Israel politics for years, I have become convinced that the Israelis are pretty dumb and insensitive, despite the myth of the super-intelligent Jew. But I am certain that all Israeli government officials and the Israeli general public deeply value Israel’s alliance with the United States, and believe that it is essential to Israel’s survival. Either top-echelon officials were unaware of the Haifa port authority’s decision, or didn’t realize it would antagonize the United States. I’m sure that now that the U.S. has complained about it, the Israelis will struggle to find a way to cancel the contract without unduly antagonizing China (now a major trading partner of Israel).
Zumwalt: In Syria, U.S. Abandons Three Musketeers Role with Israel, the Kurds
https://www.breitbart.com/middle-east/2018/12/22/zumwalt-in-syria-u-s-abandons-three-musketeers-role-with-israel-the-kurds/
US Military Budget changed not one nickel with leaving Syria. Groping to find rationalizations to the victory of Islamic Turkey and the Betrayal of the Kurds, does not change the fact the Russia, Turkey, Iran and Hezbollah are the winners in Trumps retreat from Syria.
Erodogan is taking victory laps in speeches and the Turks are advancing on Northern Syria now, even though Trump was told the Turks would wait until the USA withdraws.
Putin is happy but he wants to see the USA leave Syria before he cheers too much he says.
Iran has more space to operate and only Israel will be able to hinder it.
The Kurds, Israelis and USA plus its other allies who need the USA to project strength not Geo-Political weakness for mutual deterrence are the losers in Trumps blunder.
Those who retreat are more likely to get attacked than those who project strength.
@ adamdalgliesh:
Hi, Adam
I’m sorry to be butting in when you’re talking to Ted; and of course, we just had an exchange on another thread. I am still awake, though, and processing information; so allow me to speak here.
Yes, we are limited in how much we can be the “world’s policeman.” In the wake of the collapse of the Soviet Union, Western politicians started planning strategy as though they were on steroids: Russia and China were admitted to the IMF, and businessmen thought we had entered a utopian world in which everyone got along. Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan and Mauritania all became NATO “partners”:
https://www.nato.int/icons/map/hrmap.jpg
The “New World Order” of George H. W. Bush seemed to have arrived, with Washington at its center. Then reality set in:
https://www.economist.com/sites/default/files/201035NAC162.gif
As Bob Dylan once said,
“Now you don’t talk so loud;
Now you don’t feel so proud,
About having to be scrounging
Your next meal…”
President Trump wants to “Make America Great Again”; and amazingly, as the Bible says,
“his enemies are them of his own household”.
The Democrats are no longer competing with the Republicans to control America: They want to DESTROY America, and replace it with a global order. The State Department operates like the fourth branch of the government; the FBI like the fifth, the Department of Justice like the sixth, the print media like the seventh, Hollywood like the eighth and Big Tech like the ninth.
And is Kazakhstan our “partner for peace”? No; they’re allied with Russia and China… and India, and Pakistan, and Iran, and TURKEY, which is supposed to be OUR ally!
How about the US Marine Corps, the “Semper Fi” or “Always Faithful”? That’s General Kelly and General Mattis, the latest rats to jump the Trump ship.
The Beatles said “Money can’t buy me love”. That’s true, but it can buy a lot of influence — like getting women to tell bald-faced lies to tear down the reputation of an honest, upright Supreme Court nominee. And Faithful Israel? They leased the port of Haifa to the Chinese Communists, the port where US ships dock to show support for Israel. Rats! They’re all rats, and I’m talking here about God’s Chosen People.
So yes, you are correct: We cannot be the world’s policeman any more. We can’t even be France’s policeman, nor Canada’s. Our only saving grace, is that our enemies are in worse shape than we are.
Ted, see my comments under the NYT article you republished, dealing with this same subject. What this author and many other well-meaning commentators overlook is that there are limits to what the United States can do to protect everyone in the world, everywhere, 24/7, from bad guys.
Our economy is in deep trouble. It is no longer financially possible for the U.S. to act as the world’s policeman and security guard. And there are limits to the fairness of requiring U.S. soldiers to act as permanent security guards for all oppressed peoples and groups. Sometimes the local people have to be left to protect themselves as best they can. Or regional allies have to be tasked to pick up the slack when U.S. troops are withdrawn. I think that Trump wants Israel to pick up a lot of the slack left by U.S. in Syria. And that might not be the worst thing for Israel.
I don’t know who Rovvi Lepor is, or where he’s coming from. He certainly isn’t speaking on behalf of US national interests. President Trump hit the nail on the head in this tweet:
”
Donald J. Trump
?Verified account @realDonaldTrump
3h3 hours ago
If anybody but your favorite President, Donald J. Trump, announced that, after decimating ISIS in Syria, we were going to bring our troops back home (happy & healthy), that person would be the most popular hero in America. With me, hit hard instead by the Fake News Media. Crazy!”
I won’t boither crying crocidile tears for the Syrian Kurds and their PKK allies. We had a common enemy in ISIS, and that was the beginning and the end of our relationship. Until we sent special ops forces in to help them, they were de facto allied with Bashar al Assad; and when the Turks were attacking Al Bab, they again went to Assad and to the Russians for help. Their alliance with the US has always been a matter of convenience. We helped them for several years, and Pres. Trump continues to hold forth the prospect of helping them in the future. He did not “betray” anyone. The only betrayal going on, is Shumer, the Dems and the Rinos doing George Soros’ bidding and trying to destroy US sovereignty and eliminate our borders. That is where my main concern lies, and where the concern of most Americans lie; NOT with the never-ending fight of the Kurds (against others AND against one another) for independence.