US makes contingency plans in case Iran nuclear talks fail

U.S. negotiator describes talks with European signatories to 2015 deal as “constructive,” says not engaging in contingency planning would be irresponsible • “The Europeans may go out on a limb and still have the U.S. president walk away,” strategist warns.

News Agencies and Israel Hayom Staff

The United States has had constructive talks about the Iran nuclear deal with Britain, France and Germany but is making contingency plans should they fail, the lead U.S. negotiator said on Wednesday.

U.S. President Donald Trump gave an ultimatum on Jan. 12 to the European powers, saying they must agree to “fix the terrible flaws” of the 2015 Iran nuclear deal or he would refuse to extend the U.S. sanctions relief on Iran that it calls for. U.S. sanctions will resume unless Trump again waives them on May 12.

“We have had constructive talks with the Europeans towards a supplemental agreement but I can’t predict whether we will reach an agreement with them or not,” Brian Hook, the State Department policy planning director, told reporters in a conference call.

“We are engaged in contingency planning because it would not be responsible not to,” said Hook, the lead U.S. negotiator in the talks with the Europeans. “We are kind of dual tracking this.”

Hook held talks with the three European powers in Berlin on Thursday followed by wider talks on Friday in Vienna with a group that tracks the implementation of the nuclear deal negotiated under former President Barack Obama’s administration.

The United States also had a bilateral meeting with Iran in Vienna to demand the release of U.S. citizens held by Tehran, Hook said.

A senior Iranian Foreign Ministry official confirmed that the United States had raised the issue in the bilateral talks, saying that the Iranian side had responded that this was a matter for the Iranian judiciary, which acts independently.

“However, on humanitarian grounds, we said we will do whatever possible,” the Iranian official said, adding that at the same meeting “Iran asked for the release of Iranians jailed” in the United States.

He also said the issue was discussed with the foreign minister of Oman when he visited Tehran earlier this month.

The crux of the 2015 agreement between Iran and six major powers – Britain, China, France, Germany, Russia and the United States – was that Iran would restrict its nuclear program in return for relief from sanctions that have crippled its economy.

Trump sees three defects in the deal: its failure to address Iran’s ballistic missile program; the terms under which international inspectors can visit suspect Iranian nuclear sites; and “sunset” clauses under which limits on the Iranian nuclear program start to expire after 10 years. He wants all three strengthened if the U.S. is to stay in the deal.

Iran is technically complying with the agreement, Hook said.

However, he repeated the Trump administration view Iran is violating the deal’s preamble, which expressed the expectation that the agreement’s “full implementation … will positively contribute to regional and international peace and security.”

Iran argues it is not receiving the full benefits of the sanctions relief, in part because big banks have continued to stay away for fear of falling foul of remaining U.S. sanctions.

Hook said he had rejected this argument.

“Iran’s opaque economy makes it hard for investors to know whether they’re supporting commerce or supporting terrorism,” he said. “Iran needs to stop sponsoring terrorism and overhaul its banking and business sectors.”

He also played down Iranian concerns that Trump has yet to approve licenses for Western aircraft companies to sell to Iran although the Obama administration did so.

“I said to them you use your commercial airlines to move terrorists and weapons around the Middle East, including to Syria, and we will not issue licenses at the expense of our national security,” Hook said.

European planemaker Airbus and its U.S. rival Boeing have agreed to sell a total of 180 jets to renew the aging fleet of state carrier Iran Air, but depend on U.S. support for the deal because of the number of U.S. parts in all their jets.

The U.S. unusual ultimatum on the deal puts America’s closest allies in Europe in the uncomfortable position of trying to predict what is likely to satisfy Trump, even as they resent his demand to tinker with the deal in the first place. The European nations only begrudgingly agreed after it became clear that placating the U.S. president was the only way to salvage the deal former President Barack Obama struck with Iran and world powers.

“This is really where the leverage falls through,” said Heather Conley, the Europe director at the Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies.

“The Europeans may go out on a limb and still have the president walk away. The Europeans have tried, but they don’t know ultimately where he’s going to come out on this.”

According to one outside adviser briefed on the status of the talks, the negotiating team is currently working on a double-pronged “fix” that would separate Iran’s missiles into two categories: nuclear-capable long-range, intercontinental ballistic missiles that can hit Europe, and shorter-range projectiles that could hit U.S. allies and friends, including Israel, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain and the United Arab Emirates as well as American military assets.

Sanctions could be imposed for both, but those for long-range missiles would likely be harsher and kick in more automatically if Iran tested or transferred them. Those sanctions could also target Iranian entities that were exempted from penalties under the nuclear deal.