Peloni: Ukraine has finally lost its long coveted foothold on the Russian side of the Dnipro River. I called for Ukraine to give up this beachhead some time ago. This forward salient held no benefit for Ukraine if they could not effect a march on the sea, so to speak, and drive the Russians back. Rather than achieving this objective or anything close to it, the foothold at Krynky provided Ukraine nothing more than a propaganda boast at the cost of too many of her men. The process of attrition which led to the collapse of Avdiika and the slow retreat which followed should have been evidence enough to all, their supporters and detractors alike, that Krynky held no possible benefit for Ukraine, even as it provided Russia with the means to mount significant casualties on those Ukrainians unfortunate enough to be posted there, something of a metaphor for the war in general I would argue.
Sundance | July 18, 2024
The Dnipro River essentially forms the boundary between Russian controlled territory and Ukraine. Everything East of the river is controlled by Russia, while everything west is controlled by Ukraine. This status is essentially the underpinning of the visible stalemate.
By most generally accepted accounts, the Russians have carved out the buffer zone they initially wanted. Russia is essentially no longer trying to take any more ground in Ukraine and in many places, they have begun rebuilding towns. That’s what it looks like on the ground.
Ukraine had crossed the Dnipro to take the village of Krynky (near Kherson) a few months ago and had been trying to hold the area. However, with the river behind them it was increasingly unrealistic to stop Russia from retaking the town. As expected, Russia pushed the depleted Ukraine forces back across the river.
UKRAINE – […] Ukrainian troops have lost a hard-won position on the eastern bank of the Dnipro River, near the southern city of Kherson, after months of bloody fighting to hold on to a piece of land in what some Ukrainian soldiers and military analysts have described as a futile operation.
The Ukrainian military said on Wednesday night that fighting continued on the eastern bank but that most of the main positions in the village of Krynky, where its troops had gained a foothold, “were destroyed by intense, combined and prolonged enemy fire.” The statement came after several Ukrainian news media outlets reported that Ukrainian forces had withdrawn from the village, which now lies in ruins.
The operation to establish a bridgehead on the Russian-controlled eastern bank of the Dnipro had been controversial from the start. Launched last fall, it was seen as an attempt to open a new front in the south that would disrupt Moscow’s logistics and tie down its troops in the area. But military analysts warned that the operation, which consisted of dangerous river crossings, was vulnerable in its logistics and unlikely to lead to rapid breakthroughs.
Ukrainian gains were limited to small pieces of land near the river, of which Krynky was the most notable.
[…] holding on to Krynky also cost Ukraine many lives. Ukrainian soldiers said they were stuck for days in muddy terrain with little to no cover from Russian artillery, drones and airstrikes.
An article published on Wednesday by Slidstvo Info, an investigative Ukrainian news outlet, reported that at least 1,000 Ukrainian soldiers have been killed on the eastern bank or are missing. That figure could not be independently confirmed. (read more)
It will be interesting to see what the State Dept/CIA do if Biden makes an exit announcement.
Will a successful Trump/Vance ticket fundamentally change the Russia-Ukraine war?
Lots of variables and financial interests positioning to keep the USA financial support in place.
The NATO alliance will do whatever the USA does.
@Adam
Good post.
The oligarchs are a product of the West, and in fact in Putin has included them in the balancing act of maintaining his own position in Russia over the years. The Russian oligarchs feared Putin, which is why they placed their wealth in the West. Yet, one of the benefits of Russian society facing the US sanctions war is that the power of the oligarchs was still tied to their assets in the West based on the dollar, and Russia now had its own economy based on the ruble. To be honest, I had expected the crack down which is now taking place to have come much sooner than this, but the war was less certain than it appears at present, and I would argue that given Putin’s comfort in making this move at present suggests either that he is comfortable with the state of the war at present or that he is anticipating some reduction in the Russian economic isolation, which would restore the power of the oligarchs to the degree that the economic isolation was reduced. Just my own thoughts of course.
We live in separate parallel realities as far as Ukraine is concerned, so I ‘ve given up trying to win you to my point of view. Just some comments on the facts: Yes, the Russians have been making progress on the front lines and pushing forward, and all of Ukraine’s spokesmen, both government and journalistic, are very worried that Ukraine may lose the war in 2024. Even more worried about a Trump-Vance presidency because they see them as hostile to Ukraine. The ukrainians do claim some positive developments in the war from their own point of view, chiefly their success in damaging some Russian oil refineries, arms depots, military bases and airfields with drone strikes. They admit that Russian drone strikes have inflicted a lot of damage on them, espcially their electric power infrasturcture.
There is no question that on the Russian side Putin is conducting a truly massive crackdown on government corruption. Mass arrests of allegedlc orrupt officials. Russian opposition commentators are nearly unanimous that all of these purged officials are indeed corrupt. They concede that Putin is not making this up. The oppositionists claim that corrupt Russian officials have looted Russia of billions, maybe even several trillions of dollars over the past 30-40 years and moved them to their “investments” of various kinds in the West. All of this looted money is government money that rightfully belongs to the Russianpeople. Putin has waitted far, far too long to crack down, perhaps he is secretly afraid of the “o;ogarchas” who have been doing this. Among them some of his closest fiends and colleagues (or “cronies.” But he has finally come to come to grips with the corruption problem, because he realizes that he cannot both continue the war in Ukraine and provide for the basic needs of the Russian people unless he purges the crooks and theives in government positions. He has already announced substantial tax increases to fund the war. But he knows that most Russians outside of St. Peterberg and Moscow remain very poor, and there are limits to how much he can tax them without creating widespread discontent.