U.S. ramps up pressure on Israel to address Gaza crisis ahead of deadline

The Biden administration is ratcheting up pressure on the Israeli government to meet a set of demands from the U.S. to address the humanitarian crisis in Gaza.

Why it matters: If Israel fails to fully implement the U.S. demands by Nov. 13, the U.S. could suspend its military assistance to Israel — a step the Biden administration has avoided so far but is gaining more support inside the State Department, according to a U.S. official.

• Determining if Israel has met its commitments to the U.S. and whether it has violated U.S. law during the war in Gaza could be the first major decision the Biden administration has to to make during the transition period after the presidential election.

Catch up quick: U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin sent a letter on Oct. 13 to their Israeli counterparts with an ultimatum: Israel must take steps within 30 days to improve the dire humanitarian conditions in Gaza or risk the supply of U.S. weapons to Israel being affected.

• Last March, the Israeli government sent a written commitment to the Biden administration to abide by these terms.
• The letter from Blinken and Austin signaled the administration doesn’t think Israel is meeting those commitments.

Driving the news: Over the past several weeks, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) has been conducting an operation in northern Gaza that has sharply cut humanitarian aid to the the area to its lowest levels since the war began more than one year ago.

• Israel says the goal of the operation, which is focused on the city of Jabalia, is to prevent Hamas from regrouping. Palestinians there now have very little food and medical supplies and are under heavy bombardment. At least 50,000 Palestinians were forced to leave the area since the operation began.
• Aid organizations say the Israeli operation resembles a plan proposed by former Israeli generals to seal off northern Gaza and starve any Hamas militants until they surrender.
• The Israeli government and the IDF deny it is implementing the plan, but U.S. officials are increasingly questioning Israel’s operation.

Behind the scenes: Blinken raised the demands in the letter during his meetings in Israel last week, U.S. officials said.

• Since then, Blinken has convened several internal meeting to follow up on whether Israel is implementing the U.S. requests, the officials said.
• Austin also raised the U.S. demands in several recent phone calls with his Israeli counterpart Yoav Gallant, including on Thursday.

“Both of us and our teams are tracking very carefully Israel’s responsibilities to meet the letter of the law … with regard to the provision of humanitarian assistance,” Blinken said at a press conference with Austin on Thursday.

• Blinken and Austin both said Israel has made progress, but stressed it needs to do more.
• “It’s not enough to get trucks to Gaza. It’s vital that what they bring with them can get distributed effectively inside of Gaza,” Blinken said.

Two Israeli officials and two U.S. officials told Axios that State Department officials had difficult meetings and phone calls in recent days with their Israeli counterparts demanding they do more to implement the demands.

• State Department officials also protested in conversations with their Israeli counterparts over an Israeli air strike that flattened a residential building in northern Gaza and killed dozens of Palestinians, including many children.
• They also raised that no aid has been going into Jabalia and expressed concern about a new Israeli law that would drastically limit the work of the UN’s main provider of humanitarian aid in Gaza.

At the same time, State Department spokesperson Matthew Miller has significantly stepped up public criticism of Israel and the crisis in Gaza.

• U.S. Ambassador to the UN Linda Thomas-Greenfield during a Security Council meeting earlier this week suggested Israel is starving Palestinians in Jabalia.
• “We feel we can’t defend this anymore,” a senior U.S. official said.

State of play: Israeli and U.S. officials said Israeli Minister for Strategic Affairs Ron Dermer was tasked with drafting the response to the letter from Blinken and Austin.

• Both Israeli and U.S. officials said they expect the letter to be finalized and sent only after the U.S. presidential election, with the results likely influencing its contents.
• “If Trump wins, I guess the Israeli response will say F-You,” one U.S. official said.
• U.S. officials said the IDF and the Israeli Ministry of Defense have taken steps to implement some U.S. demands but it doesn’t seem likely Israel could meet key demands, including the entry of 350 aid trucks into Gaza each day by Nov. 13.
• Several of the U.S. demands also need to be approved by the Israeli cabinet in order to be implemented, which is not expected to happen before the U.S. elections.