U.S. National Security Adviser John Bolton in Israel to allay concerns there over shock decision to pull out U.S. troops
Some American troops could stay in southern Syria despite a U.S. military withdrawal from the war-torn country, NBC News quoted a senior Trump administration official as saying on Friday.
The official was traveling to Israel alongside U.S. National Security Adviser John Bolton, who has been sent on a mission to allay Jerusalem’s concerns about U.S. President Donald Trump’s shock decision to exit Syria.
The pullout announced before Christmas was initially expected to be completed within weeks, but the timetable has slowed as the president acceded to requests from aides, allies and members of Congress for a more orderly drawdown.
Bolton is slated to meet with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and other officials on Sunday before traveling to Turkey. Israeli officials have expressed alarm that a swift withdrawal of the roughly 2,000 troops could enable Iran to expand its influence and presence in Syria, wracked by a yearslong civil war and the Islamic State militancy.
Trump’s move has raised fears about clearing the way for a Turkish assault on Kurdish fighters in Syria who have fought alongside American troops against IS extremists. Turkey considers the Kurdish People’s Protection Units, or YPG, a terrorist group linked to an insurgency within its own borders.
A Trump administration official told reporters traveling with Bolton that Bolton intended to discuss the pace of the drawdown, as well as American troop levels in the region. Bolton was expected to explain that some U.S. troops based in Syria to fight IS will shift to Iraq with the same mission and that some American forces may remain at a key military outpost in al-Tanf, in southern Syria, to counter growing Iranian activity in the region.
Bolton’s also was to convey the message that the United States will be “very supportive” of Israeli strikes against Iranian targets in Syria, according to the official, who was not authorized to publicly discuss Bolton’s plans before the meetings and spoke on condition of anonymity to preview the talks.
Bolton warned Syria’s president, Bashar Assad, not to use the U.S. drawdown as a pretext to use chemical weapons against Syrians, saying there is “no change” to the U.S. position that their use is a “red line.” Trump has twice carried out airstrikes in Syria in response to apparent chemical attacks, with the intention of deterring Assad.
“We’ve tried twice through the use of military force to demonstrate to the Assad regime the use of chemical weapons is not acceptable,” Bolton said while en route to Israel. “And if they don’t heed the lessons of those two strikes, the next one will be more telling.”
Trump’s announcement about the intended troop withdrawal was greeted by surprise and condemnation from many U.S. lawmakers and allies, and prompted the resignation of Defense Secretary Jim Mattis and the U.S. special envoy for the anti-IS coalition in protest.
Secretary of State Mike Pompeo is following Bolton to the Mideast this coming week for an eight-country tour of Arab allies to shore up support for the administration’s partners in the region.
While in Israel, Bolton planned to encourage officials to take a tougher stance against Chinese electronics manufacturers ZTE and Huawei. The U.S. has expressed concerns about potential cyber-penetration by those companies.
Joining Bolton in Turkey will be the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Gen. Joseph Dunford. In meetings with Turkey’s president, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, and other officials, they are expected to warn against an offensive targeting the Kurdish fighters in Syria.
At this point, it is not even certain that the withdrawal will occur at all. If it does, it will probably take some time, and some special ops soldiers may remain more or less permanently. In any case, it is looking unlikely that the withdrawal, even if complete, will result in major changes on the ground in Syria. Erdogan’s reported firing of the general whom he initially put in command of the Turkish invasion force, for failing to move quickly enough, may mean that he cannot rely on the Turkish army to carry out a vigorous offensive against the Kurds. It is highly probable that the army is demoralized and angry by Erdogan’s purge of thousands of officers.
While the Russian, Syrain, Hezbollah and Iranian-led forces remain a serious threat to Israel, it is not very likely that the presence of a small number of troops in-country is doing much to alleviate this threat. The U.S. has never promised to intervene with their own troops to support Israel in the event that it comes under attack from the hostile forces in Syria and Lebanon. The U.S. never had enough military infrastructure in Syria to resupply Israel from that country, although they can resupply Israel from bases elsewhere if necessary.
The danger of an attack on Israel by the hostile coalition of forces in both Syria and Lebanon remains a serious threat to Israel. But I don’t think that the Russians are likely to encourage such an attack or join in it. I also think that if the Iranian-led coalition launched a major attack on Israel, Russia would probably stand aside when Israel counter-attacks. Putin is not especially eager to go to war with Israel, since he is aware of the close relationship between Israel and the United States, and also because Israel is a valued trading partner with Russia that provides the Russians with badly needed exports, imports, and foreign investment . Finally he is aware that the Jews who remain in Russia are major contributors to the success of Russia’s new private enterprise system, and he doesn’t want to frighten or anger the Jews into fleeing the country in droves. This does not eliminate the danger of Russian military action against Israel. But it means that an all-out war by R ussia against Israel is unlikely, and that Russia is unlkely to encourage the Iranian coalition to launch an all-out war against Israel. If the Iranian coalition does launch such a war, they will probably have to wage it without much assistance from the Russians.