Peloni: Sherman describes how US foreign policy blunders have left the US in an ironic state of growing isolation without the means or competence to change this situation, even as significant opportunities present themselves. The leader of the Free World is more and more marching to its own drum, abandoning partners, betraying allies, and destabilizing their own position in the world. While America needs a return to good governance, the world needs a return to good leadership.
“After only one year of President Biden being in office, we have seen the complete collapse of Afghanistan and a return of the Taliban rule; Russia on the verge of war with Ukraine, in what could be the largest invasion in Europe since World War II; the rise of authoritarianism in Latin America … and Iran’s continued build-up of its nuclear program.” Rep. Michael McCaul. R-Texas, Biden’s Foreign Policy Failures.
“U.S. foreign policy during the Biden administration has abandoned allies, strengthened adversaries, and put U.S. national security at risk.” Sen. Joni Ernst (R-IA), Biden’s Strategic Failures in Foreign Policy,
Over the last four years of Democratic incumbency, the record of U.S. policy has hardly been strewn with staggering successes.
A lamentable litany of lacunae
Arguably, the nadir was the humiliating 2021 evacuation of Afghanistan, leaving over a dozen U.S. servicemen dead, with countless U.S. citizens and erstwhile Afghan allies abandoned. Moreover, there can be scant doubt that the sense of American weakness conveyed by the Afghan debacle fed into in Vladimir Putin’s decision to invade Ukraine barely two years later (see Rep. MaCaul’s prediction above.)
Recently, Newsweek published a piece laying out a litany of U.S. policy failures in Africa, Accordingly, African countries increasingly believe that they should rely on Beijing for their commercial needs and Moscow for their security needs.
Of course, for Washington’s strongest Mideast ally, Israel, the most ominous aspect of flailing U.S. policy is Biden’s fainthearted approach toward Iran, allowing Tehran to sow mayhem across the globe via its terrorist proxies, while advancing ever-closer to weaponized nuclear capability.
Periphery of the Periphery
Lately, there have been accumulating signs of an additional theater, in which another fiasco seems to be emerging: Central Asia.
For decades this area was considered the “periphery of the periphery,” never really holding a central position in US interests until 9/11 which brought the region into far sharper focus.
Two millennia ago, Central Asia (Afghanistan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan) was a major hub for international commerce along China’s Silk route, trading the treasures of old — silk, spices, jade, precious metals, ivory. Today, they harbor different treasures that have greatly elevated their strategic importance.
These are significant deposits of metals and minerals crucial in a broad array of high-tech products and the alternative energy industry — including almost 40% of the world’s manganese ore, chromium (30%), lead (20%), zinc (over 12%), and titanium (almost 10%), alongside other valuable resources. In particular, Kazakhstan seems a potential alternative for rare earth elements instead of China, which accounts for 70% of global supply.
The struggle for control
Unsurprisingly Washington’s major competitors for control/influence in this increasingly crucial region are Beijing and Moscow.
Despite being part of the former-USSR, and the aging elites’ lingering pro-Russia sentiments, there is a growing sense of alienation among wide segments of the post-Soviet youth with looser political/cultural ties with Moscow — with over half the population under-30.
China too is bent on asserting itself in the region, making huge investments in Central Asia. Although overall, governments have welcomed Chinese investment through the Belt-and-Road Initiative (BRI), public opinion seems far less favorable.
Suspicion of China has been prevalent in Central Asian for centuries, reinforced partly by Soviet-era propaganda after the 1960-69 Sino-Soviet dispute. Thus, recent opinion surveys show distinct downward trends in public sentiment toward China.
Clearly, souring relations with Russia and growing skepticism of Chinese influence have created a window of opportunity for the U.S. to bolster its standing in the region.
However, even if Central Asian countries are averse to Russia and hesitant about doing business with China, the image of weakness conveyed by the U.S. Afghanistan withdrawal and Russia’s Ukraine invasion has left them with few other options.
Neither will nor ability?
Indeed, there is no guarantee America has the will or ability to engage successfully with Central Asia. Some observers have been blatantly dismissive of U.S. efforts in the region.
Thus, when Washington allotted $50 million to the Economic Resilience Initiative for Central Asia “to expand regional trade routes, establish new export markets, attract and leverage greater private sector investment”, one RAND analysis sardonically asserted: “…it pales in comparison to Chinese investment” of a $4 billion investment in Central Asia…”.
Furthermore, critics of current U.S. policy underscore that its focus on human rights has little impact relative to the massive Chinese investment in industry, infrastructure … and surveillance technology. Sadly, despite these demands’ undisputed moral merit they are unlikely to advance American interests in securing its critical mineral sources or reduce its dependence on an inherently adversarial China for their supply.
Accordingly, the current situation seems the result of a grave misreading of prevailing Central Asian politics, seriously disadvantaging the U.S. in this increasingly vital region.
Similar symptoms
A similar disregard for the tenets of realpolitik is reflected in elements of Biden’s policy further west, in the Caucasus — specifically toward Azerbaijan, a lynchpin on the Baku-Tribli-Ceyhan (BTC) pipeline that comprises a strategic alternative for the Russian pipeline in conveying Kazakh oil to Europe.
I recently touched on some of the profound defects of U.S. policy, illustrating how the current administration has, in effect, “abandoned allies, strengthened adversaries”, in sanctioning pro-Western Azerbaijan while supporting Armenia, complicit with Iran in circumventing Western sanctions against Russia.
Indeed, since Azerbaijan retaking Nagorno Karabagh (2023), Armenia, has begun to pry itself loose of Moscow’s grasp. Moreover, peace negotiations between the erstwhile adversaries are now underway.
Accordingly, as Azerbaijan is a vital element in the West’s energy security, a staunch ally of Israel, it is difficult to see how any lingering tensions on the part of Washington enhance American interests.
One can only hope that the upcoming November elections will usher in a fundamental change in policy-orientation.
Martin Sherman spent seven years in operational capacities in the Israeli defense establishment. He is the founder of the Israel Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS), a member of the Habithonistim-Israel Defense & Security Forum (IDSF) research team, and a participant in the Israel Victory Project. Read Martin Sherman’s Reports — More Here.
I greatly value Martin Sherman’s strategic analysis of the Middle East and in particular his proof that neither 1-state, nor 2-state “solutions” are passible.
On the other hand I don’t find the above article particularly interesting or valuable. TOO MANY lose ends and incorrect interpretations.
For example, I don’t see any connection between the war in Ukraine and the American supposed weakness under Biden.
Foreign troops in Ukraine, let alone Ukrainian membership in NATO was Russian existential red line.
Trump’s America would not start a war against Russia either. They, too, would implement sanctions that ultimately would backfire.
As for Kazakhstan, the supposed pro-democratic opposition to Russia’s influence, is the same old American meddling with color revolutions. American incitement against Russia is likely to bring about another Islamist regime.
I don’t know where Martin Sherman got the info that Central Asian countries hold 40% or whatever percentage of world’s Manganese deposits. South Africa holds over 40 times more manganese than all Central Asian countries combined including Kazakhstan (that has most). While China and Australia hold respectively 9 and 7.5 times as much.
Regarding known deposits of Chromium Kazakhstan is 3rd after S. Africa and Turkey. There is plenty of chromium available elsewhere, too. Nobody really knows about deposits because more can be found, however when it comes to chromite production Kazakhstan make 15% rather than 30%.
Enough about details, the big picture seems to be that Martin Sherman believes that America is the great force for good that should lead the world.
The reality is that America is subject to the same social laws and historical forces that shape and dissolve empires.
It is neither uniquely good nor bad, and the time of American domination is coming to the close whether America is ruled by Trump or an imbecile who cannot tie his shoes and farts loudly while shaking hands with the English royals.
Adam you wrote
It is true that Afghanistan has been a strong ally of Israel,
A brilliant report from Dr. Sherman. One caveat: It is true that Afghanistan has been a strong ally of Israel, while Armenia has been more or less hostile to Israel. The Armenians have been “pissed” at Israel mainly because for years, Israel refused to acknowledge that Turkey had committed genocide against the Armenians. The Armenians thinking, or rather emotions, were “How could the Jews, of all people, have failed to express sympathy and solidarity with us, considering that what they have gone through is so similar to what has happened to us? And why are they allies of Turkey, our worst enemy?” I have a feeling that Armenia would be open to reconciliation with Israel if Israel issued a heartfelt apology for this lapse over many years, combined with an explanation as to why it was difficult for Israel to explress solidarity with Armenia for a long time. Now that Turkey under Erdgan and his Islamists has become an enemy of Israel, not a friend like some earlier Turkish governments, it should be much easier for Israel to express heartfelt sympathy for the suffering of the Armenia people at Turkish hands over the years. That would position Israel to be the key player in helping Azerbaijan and Armenia to get beyond their centuries of conflict and make peace. And this position as peacemakers would place Israel in a position of great strength.