US President Donald Trump is due to unveil his much-hyped “deal of the century” plan for Israeli and Palestinian peace following the end of Ramadan next month.
It is being shepherded by Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner, who is his special envoy to the Middle East, and by lawyer Jason Greenblatt.
Although everyone is focused on how the peace plan seems set to destroy any hopes of a two-state solution — and while many Arab nations and the Palestinian leadership have already rejected it as biased and unworkable — the consequences of the proposal are expected to place Jordan in immediate political jeopardy.
The Hashemite Kingdom was created at about the same time as Mandatory Palestine following the conclusion of the First World War. Israeli extremists often argue that “Jordan is Palestine” and point to it as the “true” two-state solution. This perception was aggravated by the 1947-48 Jewish militia drive to control Palestine, during which Israel was created. Since then, Israel has done everything to rebuff all efforts to satisfy Palestinians’ demands for civil rights and statehood. (THIS IS A LIE.)
The wars of 1947-48 and 1967, as well as many other skirmishes, created a surge of Palestinian refugees who fled to neighboring Arab nations, with the largest groups ending up in Lebanon and Jordan.
Of the estimated 5.5 million Palestinians in the global diaspora, about half live in Jordan, most with Jordanian citizenship and many still with refugee status. Jordan was the only nation to offer Palestinian refugees citizenship as part of its political agenda in the 1950s. It aimed to define itself as the caretaker of the West Bank and East Jerusalem, (another lie. Jordan annexed what became known as the West Bank but only two countries recognized the annexation) both of which were lost to Israel in the Six-Day War of June 1967.
A peace plan that fails to create two states will have drastic negative consequences, not just for Israel but for the region, including Jordan.
Although no one knows the precise details of Trump’s deal, leaks have suggested it calls for several Arab nations to absorb the Palestinian refugees while allowing Israel to formally annex large areas of the occupied West Bank, including the Jewish-only settlements. The West Bank’s Palestinians, who are denied civil rights under Israel’s military occupation, are also excluded from residency in the settlements (AN OTHER LIE. The Palestinians agreed to the Oslo Accords which gave them autonomy in various regions of the West Bank. They are fully in charge of their OWN affairs. They have been offered more, time and again, but have refused to accept it.) and would presumably be absorbed by neighboring Arab countries. But there is only one country that can absorb anything: Jordan.( ANOTHER LIE. All Arab countries could do it but refuse to including Jordan currently.)
Jordan has about 9.5 million citizens, with more than 2 million of them being Palestinian. Relations between the Palestinians, Palestinian factions and Jordan’s government have always been politically rocky. (This depends how you define Palestinians. 80% are Palestinians if you define a Palestinian as one whose ancesters lived in the Mandate for Palestine. That’s how the Palestinians in the West Bank or Israel or Gaza are defined)“.
Greenblatt has denied that the US peace plan will include giving Palestinians a part of the Sinai in Egypt, but he has been silent about what Jordan is expected to do.
A peace plan that fails to create two states will have drastic negative consequences, not just for Palestine and Israel but for the region, including Jordan.
Ray Hanania
Taking control of the destiny of Palestinians reopens a wound created in the late 1940s by the secret talks that the late Jordanian King Abdullah I held with Israel. He was ultimately assassinated by a Palestinian in 1951. Then, in 1994, King Hussein surrendered the concerns of the Palestinians and signed a peace agreement with Israel that failed to address Palestinian statehood.
The current ruler, King Abdullah II, has been a very Western-friendly leader, with strong ties to the US. But his nation has been racked by economic challenges. (He only pretends to be western-friendly.) (In reality he is pro-Muslim Brotherhood and aligns with Qatar and Turkey and Iran to some extent,)
To encourage Jordan to support the “deal of the century,” and to address Amman’s continuing economic challenges, the Trump administration last year agreed to increase US support for Jordan to $1.3 billion a year for five years.
That increase is suspected to be contingent on Jordan accepting the Trump peace deal and brushing aside Palestinian aspirations for a sovereign state in the West Bank and with Jerusalem as its capital, as was sought by Palestinians under the Oslo accords and the two-state solution. THIS IS TRUE.
The consequences of the impending Trump team deal will put the pressure and focus back on Jordan, regardless of the plan’s details. It also raises questions about Jordan’s sovereignty, especially if it absorbs the nearly 3 million Palestinians currently living under occupation in the West Bank and East Jerusalem. (NOT OVER ITS SOVEREIGNTY BUT OVER ITS MONARCHY) (In addtion 3 million is a lie. 2 million is probably correct. And then there are 1.7 million in Gaza.)
It would be a huge risk and King Abdullah is already under pressure as concerns are starting to be raised. Making it more risky is the fact that no one really knows exactly how many Palestinians live in the Occupied Territories or in Jordan.
Without knowing it, the deal that Trump is planning to present through Kushner and Greenblatt could disrupt Jordan, which is already in a minor governmental crisis, and create renewed political turmoil.
Tragically, that appears to be a risk Israel and the US are willing to take.
- Ray Hanania is an award-winning former Chicago City Hall political reporter and columnist. He can be reached at his personal website at www.Hanania.com. Twitter: @RayHanania
@ Josephus:
Balfour, who, strongly influenced by a talk with Chaim Weitzman, became a convinced …you could say Zlonist..although he was not that, but a strong believer that Palestine belonged to the Jews and they NEEDED their own state.
As for the cutting-off of the Province of Trans-Jordan for the Arabs, I believe that it was just co-incidental that France and Britain were arguing bout the oil in Mesopotamia. They were both eager to take it.
There is a very important and once influential book (unfortunately now long forgotten) named “Crossroads to Israel” written in the 1960s by Christopher Sykes, the son and inheritor of ll the papers of his father Sir Mark Sykes….of the “Sykes-Picot” agreement..
His account says that, although War allies, there was always haggling and bad feeling between Britain and France. “Perfidious Albion” was the old, commonly used term they had for the British.
Feisal, Lawrence of Arabia’s friend, was the eldest son of the half-mad Sharif of Mecca (who expected to be proclaimed -by the British- the King of all the Arabs from the Persian Gulf to the Atlantic Ocean).
Feisal “jumped-the-gun” by going to Damascus-part of the French “share”- and proclaiming himself king. The French immediately booted him out ..literally they entered whilst Feisal scarpered out the back way. So the British, to console him, made him King of Mesopotamia. Hussein’s second son Abdullah, hearing of this in Mecca, started out with a rag-rag group of “bandits” up the peninsula to Damascus and avenge the “family honour” by attacking the French. After several weary, slow months, they arrived at Amman and rested there,
At that time there was nothing there except a village, and the important building was the police post, The district was named Moab, and “ruled” by 2 British officers and about 10 native “helpers”….. When Churchill heard of this, fearful that the French problem would become worse, rushed there by rickety old aeroplane, In his discussions with Abdullah, he asked him if he would be satisfied not to attack the French, but to become the ruler of this area with the title of “Emir of Trans-Jordan”….Abdullah, says Sykes, “grabbed it with both hands” The deal included several camel loads a year of gold sovereigns in leather sacks, .
I’ve detailed this account several times on this site.
Its a 3-state, not a 2-state. Britain accepted the original Balfour Pledge before her appointment as Mandate Controller. Britain corrupted the Balfour when oil was discovered in 1920 by creating Transjordan.Adam Dalgliesh Said:
It’s not entirely clear to me why Abdullah is so convinced that the Trump plan envisages Jordan absorbing the Palestinians in Judea-Samaria. Greenblatt denies the plan has leaked. Has Trump, perhaps, personally leaked aspects of the plan to Abdullah? Or Kushner? Or did someone in the Trump administration leak the plan to MBS, who passed on what he knows to Abdullah? Strange.
Abdullah is reacting to what he thinks is the plan by inciting, through the Jordanian press, the Judea-Samaria arabs to launch an “armed struggle” and “armed resistance” against Israel. Let’s you and him fight. e hopes that this will distract the Palestinians living in the kingdom ( from their grievances against the king, and redirect it towards Israel.they number 6 million, not two million, if you include everyone descended from former inhabitants of Palestine west of the Jordan (Cisjordan, usually what people refer to as “Palestine.)