Trump’s ‘Deal of the Century’ for the Middle East Might Live or Die in Cairo

Disagreeing with the Saudis, Egypt insists that East Jerusalem be the Palestinian capital, making it clear that any economic plan for Gaza is no substitute for a diplomatic plan accepted by the Palestinians

Zvi Bar’el, HAARETZ

Egypt's President Abdel-Fattah al-Sissi meets with Trump envoy Jason Greenblatt and adviser Jared Kushner at the presidential palace in Cairo, June 21, 2018,

Egypt’s President Abdel-Fattah al-Sissi meets with Trump envoy Jason Greenblatt and adviser Jared Kushner at the presidential palace in Cairo, June 21, 2018,STRINGER/AFP

Saeb Erekat, the chief Palestinian negotiator, has no doubt about the goal of the American “deal of the century.” “Its purpose is to bring down the Palestinian leadership and replace Mahmoud Abbas,” he told a newspaper over the weekend. Erekat is also certain that the Americans plan to bypass the UN refugee agency, the UNRWA, so that money earmarked for refugees goes directly to the countries hosting them. In this way, they would pull the rug out from under the refugee problem, one of the toughest issues in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.

As a senior PA official told Haaretz, “the Palestinian Authority’s fear is what Palestinian officials call the Israeli, American, Saudi and Egyptian conspiracy, whose goal is to divide Gaza from the West Bank and provide an economic solution for Gaza while strengthening Hamas, thus avoiding diplomatic negotiations over the future of Palestine.”

This fear is apparently justified. Based on reports in the Egyptian media that rely on Western diplomats, the American plan seeks to establish a free-trade zone between the Gaza Strip and El-Arish in Sinai where five large industrial projects will be established. In accordance with the Israeli demand, these projects will be established in Egypt, which will oversee operations and the passage of workers from Gaza to Sinai. 

Two-thirds of the workers will come from Gaza and one-third from Sinai. Later, a joint Egyptian-Palestinian port and solar-energy station will be built, and if everything goes as planned, an airport will be built. The government in Gaza will remain under Hamas’ control but be in full coordination with Egypt, which in recent months has been in intense talks with Hamas on control procedures at the border crossings.

If Ramadan, will keep the crossings open for two more months until the Id al-Adha holiday, with the intention of leaving it open indefinitely. The crossing is now open not only for people but also for goods and construction materials, against Israel’s wishes. Thus Egypt is making clear to Israel that the closure policy on Gaza might collapse if Israel doesn’t agree to make things considerably easier for the Gazans.

A bit of reconciliation

This is also a clear message to the PA that if President Abbas continues to hinder reconciliation between Hamas and Fatah, Gaza will be cut off from the West Bank and this will end the unification process for the two parts of Palestine.

It seems that the Egyptian message has been heard, and according to a senior Fatah official in the West Bank, Yahya Rabah, the PA will begin paying the salaries to Gaza officials that it had suspended. Also, in coordination with Egypt, Fatah-Hamas reconciliation talks will resume with the goal of reviving the national-unity government in Gaza.

 Meanwhile, Egypt, which is particularly worried about developments in Gaza, doesn’t fully accept the U.S. initiative. On Thursday, after a meeting between Egyptian President Abel-Fattah al-Sissi, Foreign Minister Sameh Shoukry and intelligence chief Abbas Kamel, who’s in charge of the Palestinian issue, presidential spokesman Bassam Radi announced: “Egypt supports all efforts and initiatives to reach a comprehensive agreement, based on international resolutions made in the past and on the principle of two states for two peoples in the 1967 borders, with East Jerusalem as the capital of Palestine.”

This position makes clear that Egypt doesn’t support the Saudi idea of Abu Dis as the Palestinian capital, and that any economic plan for Gaza won’t be a substitute for a diplomatic plan accepted by the Palestinians. Thus Egypt divides the continuation of the process into two parts: assistance to Gaza and development of its economy as part of bolstering the border between it and Gaza, and comprehensive diplomatic negotiations independent of Gaza’s economy.

Abdullah’s angst

King Abdullah of Jordan, who also met with U.S. envoys Jared Kushner and Jason Greenblatt, is worried mainly about the Saudi intent to remove Jordan’s patronage at the holy places in Jerusalem, which it was promised in the Israel-Jordan peace agreement. Jordan is also worried about Israeli control over the Jordan Valley as part of a peace agreement. In the short term, Abdullah doesn’t oppose the separate economic development of Gaza, but he supports the traditional Arab position that Gaza and the West Bank not be separate entities.According to Arab sources, Saudi King Salman and his son, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, seem to disagree over this issue. While Mohammed is an enthusiastic supporter of the American plan and the separation of Gaza from the West Bank, his father is concerned about the criticism he could expect if he relinquished the principles of the 2002 Saudi peace initiative by splitting the “Palestinian problem” into two parts and abandoning the position that East Jerusalem be the capital of Palestine.

But it’s not only the “deal of the century” that’s a source of dispute among Arab leaders. President Donald Trump’s statement that he will ask Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Qatar to share in funding new projects in Gaza has encountered stiff opposition from Saudi Arabia and the UAE. The two countries have made clear to U.S. envoys that Qatar’s involvement will mean Iran entering Gaza by the back door. They say they can handle the funding – an estimated $1 billion – on their own if Egypt and Israel agree.

The UAE announced last year that it’s willing allocate $40 million for a power station, and that it would contribute some $15 million to fund the administration in Gaza.

While the Arab-American dispute over the final resolution of the Palestine problem is playing into Israel’s hands, Israel will have to decide about Gaza. Focusing a solution in Gaza on economic projects supposedly plays into Israel’s hands in that it makes Gaza a humanitarian issue and not a diplomatic one. But political wrangling in Israel might torpedo this move in a way that puts Israel into a military confrontation with Gaza, while also pitting Israel against Washington.

June 24, 2018 | 20 Comments »

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  1. @ Bear Klein:

    The problem is, always has been, always will be, that Politicians say the most wonderful things to receptive audiences, but then if and when elected, seem to forget all their wonderful intentions….. Would Saar be like that…I don’t know…..?

    We need a leader who would carry out his campaign promises….very rare, almost extinct…like the Dodo Bird……. And in Israel the politicians have cultivated a unique method of speaking differently from both corners of their mouths, PLUS something completely different from the mouth centre. “Triple-speak”…

    I truly admire “Women in Green”.

  2. @ Edgar G.:
    You are correct Israel only needs to apply its civil law not go through an actual annexation. Israel should applying its civil law first to the Jewish Towns and Area C. The goal ultimately being its application being to all of Judea/Samaria.

    This should be staged so an not to provide residency to large number of Arabs at once. See my outline of a plan it explains it.

  3. @ yamit82:

    Every PM acted towards the US government in a similar fashion. Why blame just Begin. Look how Eisenhower chased Israel out of Sinai in ’56 even though they had the backing of France and Great Britain (who conveniently folded their tents and stole away)……?

    It’s always easy to declaim AFTERWARDS about what COULD have been done and what possible benefits we had lost, but to declare these BEFORE an “injudicious” step was taken requires the services of the Yeshiyahu HaNavi…at least.

    I sometimes do the same as you, but without the bristling rancour and anger. Of course, you have been deeply involved with many of the matters we discuss here and you have unparalleled knowledge that most of us couldn’t possible match.

    But every damned PM and senior govt official has made many of what later turned out to have been HUGE mistakes. Hindsight is a wonderful prognosticator.

    The ONLY “deal” that Israel went into with it’s eyes tightly SHUT was Oslo. And the obvious following debacle was clear beforehand to every Israeli and Jewish person above the age of 10.

  4. @ yamit82:

    At the time you’re talking about inflation was world wide, and 21% on even bank investments was commonplace, as I certainly know. This was Carter’s contribution to “world peace”, but more like a contribution to me…… He also caused the goyim to treat him and Israel with respect, which they had not done until he gained power..

  5. @ Bear Klein:

    Annexing the Jewish towns is NOT enough. What about all the rest of the Land. My contention is anyway that annexation is not needed The land is ours, by historical continuity, by historical deeds, Treaties, Declarations etc. all made after WW1. If absolutely neccessary, after announcing that we are extending our sovereignty over all the Land, we can also legally decide that ALL Arab occupants are sojourners, and need to move away as soon as it can be arranged.

    Our legal rights to the Land have been argued and discussed on this site in the recent past, to exhaustion, which to my mind was quite unneccessary.

    It is to the GOYIM that these documents and declarations, treaties etc. should be shown. And OSLO should be declared null and void for a variety of reasons.
    , one of which it was supposed to be temporary, second, it is against International solemn Treaties and agreements, and third, it was voided by the Arabs themselves right from the very time it was made.

    There is NO “Plan” where just annexing Jewish cities etc. as you mention about Saar, that I would personally accept. This would be leaving the heartland of Israel to the terrorists……

    Also I would work actively for getting rid of the little fat king. Jordan is Palestine, and 75% of our Israel that was stolen from us by the British.

  6. Bear Klein Said:

    USA under Trump is a friend unlike Obama!

    Let you know after I see his Piece Plan… Too flaky to be dependable….. He will I’m sure demand his pound of flesh for embassy move… My fear is BB if still in office will genuflect 🙁

  7. @ yamit82:
    Glad to hear you are still alive! Truly! In-spite of the stuff you dish out on occasion.

    USA under Trump is a friend unlike Obama!

  8. Bear Klein Said:

    On top of that they need to be able to maneuver with foreign friends.

    WE HAVE NO FOREIGN FRIENDS OF ANY CONSEQUENCE…. MICRONESIA IS A NICE PLACE TO VISIT THOUGH.

  9. @ Bear Klein:

    Don’t know anymore BB has destroyed any semblance of internal opposition but I firmly believe any common Mafia Don would be better than BB. The sooner we are rid of him and his crazy wife and family the better we will be…. leadership will be contested and probably someone known or unknown will prevail then we will see…..

  10. Edgar G. Said:

    All the same a 40-50 year old Begin, under diff circumstances would never have done it.

    Begin was a big mouth demagogue…..when the tire hit the road he always wilted… His forte was in rabble-rousing not real leadership or vision…. when he incorporated and partnered with the liberals to form Gahal he got some additional support but their money which was considerable to work but still with limited electoral results….. It took the disaster of the 73 war and the anger at Labor and Golda to elevate his his newly minted Sharon manipulated Likud to finally after 33 years in opposition wilderness to get power…. He was a disaster couldn’t lead led to infation of at peak 24% per month for a couple of years, drove a million Jews to leave Israel. He gave Dayan and his brother inlaw Weitzman key positions and they set him up to cave to Carter…..With all his bravado of telling Reagan we are not a Banna Republic he caved to Regan not long after voicing his angst against Reagan…. Matter of fact he caved to America long before Carter…. I spoke to him 4 days before he left for Camp David and he promised not to concede the Sinai settlements or to retreat….. We know how that turned out….Then he was responsible for the Lebanon disaster we lost over 600 casualties because he caved to pressure and would not act to finish it decisively and completely he allowed Arafat to escape to Tunis when we had him… Reagan wanted his pets kept on ice to fight another day. Begin conceded and we are still at it. Giving up Sinai cost Israel 20 years of negative economic growth Oil, Gas, depth of defense, strategic air bases 500 miles closer to Iran than at present, other natural resources in Sinai, Big tourism potential, land to expand and diversify the population amounting to hundreds of billions in lost revenue till now and a maget for more western immigration…. All because Begin had no balls just a big mouth. HE SET IN STONE THE CONCEPT OF LAND FOR PEACE!!!! That was his worst legacy…. We have not yet paid the full amt of his perfidy.

  11. Interesting reading as to whom should be p m. Who was a good minister, who got screwed etc. How many of the correspondents here have voting rights, pay a tax of some sort? Live or spend much time in ISRAEL, or lived here in the past 20 years.

  12. @ Edgar G.:
    Bibi has gotten rid of any potential other leaders in the Likud. Feiglin frankly even though his plan and my plans are similar to the future, is in my view, not someone who will be anything accept on the fringes. He took on Bibi in the Likud and lost!

    Gideon Saar is someone I forgot to mention. I like his ideas. He has returned to the Likud and is a possible Prime Minister Candidate after Bibi leaves politics. He has it clear he is interested but only after Bibi leaves office.

    If he was to take the PM job would he bold, I do not know. He has clearly state he is against a PA state and for annexing all the Jewish Towns plus keeping the Jordan Valley.

    He is a popular member of the Likud.

  13. @ Bear Klein:

    I also would have preferred Netanyahu as Foreign Minister and always though that it should have been his true position. But as to having a very forceful and totally dedicated PM….??? I couldn’t pick one. I don’t know enough about the people available, except what I read, and what I can deduce and elucidate He also did a wonderful job as Finance Minister, probably the best we ever had.

    But as PM, it’s very hard to judge because he has served at the worst time for Israel almost since the early years. A hostile American President, and an EU strongly ant-Jewish, although making “nice” to Israel for it’s own benefits. Very tough to judge him. He brought us through the flaming fires very well, but I’m afraid that the ducking , dodging weaving etc has got to become a character trait, which he won’t be able to cast off when very firm, pro active policies and moves are required….like just NOW.

    I don’t like the way that we sit “off the coast at safe distance” like a ship waiting until the storm dies down to enter harbour safely. Of course, we must remember the first duty of the PM is the safety of the population under his guardianship.

    But with all that, I still see a dark cloud hanging over him because of his malicious and downright disgusting treatment of Moshe Feiglin, to keep him out of the Knesset. It reminded me of Ben Gurion and “that man” in his contemptuous treatment of Menachem Begin

    It’s as if they both were afraid of their bete noirs…

  14. Israel does need new bold leaders. They need to be bold and action orientated strong Zionists and inspire much of the Israeli population with their abilities and vision of a better future with change from the Pal-Arab quaqmire.

    On top of that they need to be able to maneuver with foreign friends. Israelis value this highly in their leaders.
    I always thought Bibi would have been a great foreign minister under a bold strong innovative Prime Minister. He does that job well now. Just kinda mediocre on the bold innovation in regards to the Pal-Arab quagmire. He is also very good at economics especially considering the entrenched Israeli bureaucracy.

    Getting to the living possibilities and ignoring past leaders, no matter how much one likes them or not.

    If the Bayit Yehudi ever merges with the Likud both Bennett and Ayelet Shaked have the potential to be dynamic Prime Ministers. However if Bayit Yehudi primary appeal stays with a predominately “religious” populace, even Bennett says he has no chance to be Prime Minister.

    This I believe would take a merger of the parties after Bibi leaves the political scene. This would be fought tooth and nail by some Likud Ministers who also have Prime Minister Aspirations.

    Nir Barkat appears to have the personal traits and skills but at this point politically he is the mayor of Jerusalem with aspirations of becoming a leader in the next Knesset elections. So the path is not yet clear but possible.

  15. @ Sebastien Zorn:

    Begin was squeezed and threatened unmercifully by Reagan and the qhole US Establishment. He held out as long as he could, then the Israel Govt. had to cave in. At least the believed that they had to. It nearly broke Begin’s heart. HIs wife was very sick, dyding, and he was very low. All the same a 40-50 year old Begin, under diff circumstances would never have done it.
    *************************************************************************************************TO ARNOLD….

    A Meir Kahane would have been even more intractable, bu there was only one Kahane. He was supported by nearly every single prominent Rabbinic Israel leader, but because he was more of an activist than a politician, the “machers’ got him banned. I don’t know what he was doing when the negotiations with Sadat were goig on, and am surprised that I can’t find any record of him interjecting himself into the mix. Whether he could ever have led Israel as PM will never be known, but his contentiousness and reliance on Torah Law in a modern world might not have been able to work in Israel, beset on all sides and needing powerful allies. Kahane could have led Israel into war with the belief that G-D would give Israel victory, without properly assessing the on-the-ground capabilities and of the enemy. A wonderful ideological leader for Israel, with loads of excellent ideas, but his enemies, by corrupt legal means got him out of their way.

  16. This deal is NO GOOD for Israel, after all the time with the “sages” mumbling in their beards over it. If there are going to be 5 huge industrial complexes built in Sinai, then that is the opportunity to move the workers who’ll run it there too. A city (or 5 cities) can be built around and behind the complexes or better for the Arabs, the cities can be built in front and the complexes more into the Sinai. Then they can do something with the seafront, along with the port. It may be attractive enough to draw the YESHA Arabs there too. They should be encouraged to go. I’m surprised that Israel is allowing the complexes without wanting to move the Arabs with them. The that border could be permanently closed saving a lot of present and future terrorism.

    The Egyptians and Saudis are battling for the Arab leadership. so each wants e=ti’s own way. The Israelis MUST support the Saudis, and be a little firmer with Egypt. Although Egypt is closer to Israel and more of a threat, it means Jerusalem or not.

    The complexes in the Sinai are also a great asset for Israel, because in case of trouble with Egypt, they can be destroyed from the air, and then Egypt would have to feed 1.8 million Arabs many miles from Egypt proper. The Jordanians should be put firmly in their place, the Oslo agreement formally annulled, and take control of the Temple Mount. Israel looks as if it’s sitting on it’s tucchas placidly waiting for something to happen ,orchestrated by others. Israel must be proactive in matters that concern it vitally, like East Jerusalem, The Jordan Valley, The 1967 “”borders”” etc. We have no idea what the PA will look like after Abbas, but it has to disintegrate or helped along that path. Israel HAS to insert itself more positively, It has vital interests, or it will always be a very small country with a 10,mill population max. Any more will be emigrating all over the world making DIasporas all over again.

    Menachem Begin was born 50 years too early, we need him now, or his like.

    Otherwise Israel will never again be from the River to the Sea.