Trump Peace Effort Traps Jordan Between U.S. and Palestinians

Jordanian minister presses Washington to heed Palestinian position, warning of consequences of failure

By Felicia Schwartz and Suha Ma’ayeh, WSJ

July 5, 2019 

AMMAN, Jordan—As the Trump administration lays the groundwork for an Israeli-Palestinian peace plan, neighboring Jordan has been thrust into the awkward position of opposing many of Washington’s policies while depending on its support.

Jordan sees an independent Palestinian state next to Israel as vital to its interests. More than 50% of Jordan’s 10 million people are of Palestinian descent, including 2.2 million refugees registered with the United Nations.

But Jordan has watched with increasing worry as the Trump administration made moves that the Palestinians say show the U.S. is siding with Israel, such as cutting aid to the West Bank and Gaza and recognizing Jerusalem as Israel’s capital.

Officials here say a plan that doesn’t satisfy Palestinians’ national aspirations could result in a security crisis for Jordan. The monarchy, which already faces protests over economic issues and political rights, could also have to contend with an influx of Palestinians and unrest across the border in the West Bank, officials said.

“Everything that happens in the region has an impact on us,” Jordanian Foreign Minister Ayman Safadi said in an interview. “We’re on the receiving end of every crisis in this part of the world.”

Jordan is currently home to millions of refugees, including 2.2 million Palestinians registered with the United Nations. Above, a camp in Amman. Photo: andre pain/epa-efe/rex/Shutterstock

Washington hasn’t revealed its political solution to the Mideast conflict, promoting only its economic blueprint. That approach won some praise in Israel but was rejected by Palestinians who say aid isn’t welcome if it comes at the expense of a Palestinian state. Gulf Arab states offered cautious backing.

Jordan, in an echo of the Palestinian position, won’t accept a peace plan that doesn’t create an independent Palestinian state with East Jerusalem as its capital and is based on borders before the 1967 Six Day War, Mr. Safadi said.

Mr. Trump’s chief Middle East peace adviser, his son-in-law Jared Kushner, has said the U.S. plan would fall in between the Arab Peace Initiative, which dictates those terms, and the Israeli position, which currently calls for Jerusalem as its undivided capital and for Israel to maintain security control over most of the West Bank and the Jordan Valley. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has said he won’t evacuate residents from settlements that are considered illegal by much of the international community.

Mr. Safadi cautioned the Trump administration against sending what he called a very dangerous message—that Palestinians have nothing to hope for.

Jordan, however, relies on U.S. aid to stave off economic collapse and political instability. Washington contributes $1.2 billion annually in economic and security aid to Jordan, whose economy has been strained by its absorption of hundreds of thousands of Syrian refugees since the start of the Syrian civil war in 2011 as well as the conflict’s disruptions to trade routes. Jordan and the U.S. are in constant contact and relations remain strong, Mr. Safadi said.

Resentment is already running high here over consumer-goods price increases and the introduction of new taxes, part of austerity measures under a program with the International Monetary Fund. Jordanians last year protested against tax reform bills that led to the downfall of the prime minister.

The U.S. describes Jordan as a vital ally and considers its support critical to the success of the peace plan. A U.S. official said Washington wasn’t threatening to cut aid to Jordan—but that it was an option depending on Jordan’s reaction to the political segment of the Trump plan. The administration said it would release the plan after Israeli elections, which are in September.

Jordan also relies on aid from Arab Gulf states—who have supported U.S. peace efforts. Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Kuwait last year pledged a $2.5 billion aid package to Jordan after a proposed income tax increase sparked large protests.

The Trump administration has said that the U.S. decision to move the embassy was aimed at serving U.S. interests and that Jerusalem’s final borders will be part of final status negotiations. And President Trump said the U.S. would resume aid to the Palestinians if they agree to the administration’s peace plan.

The political portion of the plan would be meant to settle the most contentious issues, including borders, security, refugees and the status of Jerusalem. The Trump administration kicked off its peacemaking efforts last week with a two-day conference in Bahrain that set aside those issues and focused instead on the potential for economic development if peace is achieved.

Jordan sent a small, low-profile delegation to Bahrain. The conference received almost no coverage in the tightly regulated Jordanian press.

The Trump administration used the conference to garner support for $50 billion in investment, including $7.4 billion for Jordan over 10 years.

But Mr. Safadi said the gathering didn’t increase hope for a resolution because it failed to address political issues. “Hope is very short in supply, and despair is prevailing,” he said.

Officials here said they worry that the Trump plan could ask Jordan to absorb Palestinians or that Jordan would become a de facto homeland for them if the plan fails to create a Palestinian state. Both outcomes would upset the country’s delicate demographic balance.

“We are very clear we’re not going to solve the Palestinian-Israeli conflict at the expense of Jordan,” Mr. Safadi said.

The Trump administration has said Jordan wouldn’t become a Palestinian homeland. But in a move that could raise concern in Jordan, Mr. Kushner in a media briefing Wednesday on the Bahrain conference hinted that he backs Israel’s view that Palestinian refugees should be absorbed into the Arab countries they ended up in after the 1948 war that followed Israel’s establishment.

He said that while Jews who fled Arab countries after the 1948 war were resettled in Israel, Palestinians refugees from that war were moved into camps in neighboring countries, often lacking full rights even today.

“What’s happened to the Israeli—to the Jewish—refugees, is that they’ve been absorbed by different places whereas the Arab world has not absorbed a lot of these refugees over time,” Mr. Kushner said, adding that his team’s plan would be “pragmatic, achievable and viable.”

—Dov Lieber in Tel Aviv contributed to this article.