Ted Belman. Francisco Gil-White, HIR, has just written a series of articles under the heading Trump and the Middle East in which he asks profound questions and provides even more profound answers. His analysis is based on his Historical Investigative Research. He sticks to his methodology and so far he has correctly forecast what will happen in the Middle East.
Hang tight. We are going for a ride. One article at a time.
Will Trump be different? Israeli patriots expect him to be. After all, he postures as an enemy of Iran and ISIS. But, what evidence will be diagnostic that Trump really is delivering on his Mideast promises?
Historical & Investigative Research – Jan 20, 2016, by Francisco Gil-White
Plus ça change, plus ça devient le même.
In his campaign, Donald Trump denounced indiscriminate immigration of Muslims and Barack Obama’s and Hillary Clinton’s presumed reluctance to confront the Islamic State (ISIS), Iran, and jihadist terrorism more generally. Excited Israeli patriots now await a tough line against jihadism in the Middle East and elsewhere. They dare to imagine a great US policy turnaround: a pro-Israeli Donald Trump.
My students and readers want to know what I make of him. Is he for real? Will anything change? DEBKAfile researchers say it will:
“Not much can be ascertained about President-elect Donald Trump’s administration future policies for the Middle East – any more than for most other parts of the world, except that his starting points are likely to be diametrically opposed to those of Barack Obama.”[1]
But we must consider the hypothesis that nothing much will change, that all that sturm und drang was for show. For even before being sworn in, Trump is already singing different tunes. El Financiero (Mexico) was reporting in late Novemeber that Trump was already then, somewhat hurriedly, weakening or dropping his campaign promises.[2] What he said about the border wall, global warming, and having Hillary Clinton tried—this was not, it seems, entirely serious.[3]
And his Middle East promises? Among other things, Trump promised to “dismantle” the US nuclear treaty with Iran, echoing the criticisms made by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu when he traveled to Washington to explain to Congress the danger to his country and to the world. That agreement, he said, will allow Iran to become a nuclear power.
The text of the treaty backs him up, for it frees up gigantic rivers of money for Iran without imposing an adequate inspections regime or proper guarantees.[4] The facts: Iran has already received 100 billion dollars, and when she violates the terms of the agreement nothing is done about it.[5]The damage is already done—thoroughly done—even if Trump keeps his word and abolishes the treaty.
But now that Trump is president-elect, “Netanyahu isn’t looking to end the Iran deal,” reports the Jerusalem Post. “[H]e instead is looking for Trump to have a firm stance against Iran.”[6] Political grammar: if the ‘tough hawk’ ‘Israeli patriot’ in the Iranian crosshairs can live with the deal, Trump can back down.
What will the “firm stance against Iran” even mean, then? All sorts of pusillanimous proposals are being floated: renegotiate some points, do more conscientious inspections, re-impose sanctions to punish terrorist aggression. None of this will matter; it will be a distraction. To halt the growing power of Iran in Western Asia, and jihadism more generally, Trump will have to have a real face-off.
What is the probability of that? That is not the subject of this article. We are interested here in the following question: How can we evaluate what direction Trump is going in?
We will hear, no doubt, lots of anti-Iranian rhetoric, denunciations of jihadist extremism galore, and the obligated homilies about supposed US support for Israel. We hear it every time. But perhaps we should ask ourselves: What cold and hard foreign policy facts will be consistent with a true anti-jihadist and pro-Israel push?
We shan’t demand that Trump defeat jihadism. Simply that “his starting points” be “diametrically opposed to those of Barack Obama.” In which case he should implement, at bare minimum, the following policies: 1) no more weapons for the jihadists; 2) support for the Rojava Revolution; and 3) no to the ‘Two State Solution,’ and yes to exposing the ties that bind PLO/Fatah (the ‘Palestinian Authority’) and Iran.
No more weapons for jihadists
During his presidential campaign, Trump accused Obama and his ex-Secretary of State Clinton for the emergence of the Islamic State (ISIS). He was right about this.
It has been amply documented that the Islamic State emerged from the US military prisons in Iraq, whose custodians, so obliging to the jihadists, made them lords of prison social life. There jihadists could recruit (by force, when necessary) and teach, using blackboards, the principles of jihad, how to make a bomb, and how to overcome fear to become a suicide bomber. The very general in charge called his prison system “jihadi university.”
After 5 years of this (a bachelor’s degree), US authorities dismantled the system and ¡they let everybody go! Then came the Islamic State. All of its main leaders, including ‘caliph’ Abu Bakr al Baghdadi, are graduates of this “jihadi university.” If that were not enough, after causing a civil war in Syria, the Islamic State received US-trained personnel and armament when the Syrian ‘rebels’ favored by the US government joined ISIS en masse.
| US policy created ISIS.[7] |
If the Trump administration were to dry the channels that convey arms and training to the jihadists, that would signal a real change in policy. If, on the contrary, jihadists continue to be replenished by the United States and its allies, we will know there is continuity.
Support the Rojava Revolution
The great hope to reverse the jihadist trend is the Rojava Revolution, a multi-ethnic movement led by the Kurds in northern Syria, who are allied politically with the beleaguered Kurds of the PKK in Turkey, against whom Recep Tayyip Erdogan has launched a war of ethnic cleansing. The Rojavans have made impressive gains against the Islamic State despite fighting virtually alone while suffering Turkish bombs.
| HIR explains the Rojava Revolution.[8] |
These Kurds and their Arab and other ethnic allies are almost all Muslim. They believe in popular democratic participation, gender equality, religious freedom, ethnic tolerance, and environmental sustainability. They protect, and bring into the democratic process, all ethnic and religious minorities in northern Syria. If they succeed, they will become a beacon of hope, empowering moderate Muslims all over the world to defend the democratic alternative.
Therefore, should Trump make a major push to mobilize US symbolic and military resources in favor of the Rojavans, creating an ideological and political oasis for freedom-loving Muslims, and strengthening the Islamic State’s nemesis, we would have a policy that is truly consistent with his public protestations against jihadism. It would be a geopolitical masterstroke not only for peace in the Middle East, but for the defense of the West. If, by contrast, an important effort to assist the Rojavan movement is not made, we will have to ask ourselves in what sense Trump’s government is opposed to jihadism, really.
No to the ‘Two State Solution’; yes to exposing the ties that bind PLO/Fatah (the ‘Palestinian Authority’) and Iran
Since Ruhollah Khomeini to this day, the Iranian ayatollahs have promised to exterminate the Israeli Jews.[9] It follows that if Trump is really with Israel against Iran then he cannot favor an Iranian policy in Israel. He should therefore oppose that PLO/Fatah (better known today as the ‘Palestinian Authority’) be given a state in Judea and Samaria. Why? Because PLO/Fatah created the theocratic Iranian state of Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini. You read correctly.
Nobody remembers this. I saw this for myself 3 years ago when I traveled to Israel for a brief political-anthropology tour to understand better the Israeli patriots—the ‘right-wingers,’ as they are called. Not even these people, the most worried about Israeli security, can remember something that was on the front page of the New York Times in 1979: PLO/Fataharmed and trained Khomeini’s guerillas.
After the Islamic Revolution, PLO/Fatah functioned for a while as Khomeini’s de facto foreign ministry, and it helped to create SAVAMA, the Iranian secret police, and the Revolutionary Guard. The latter 1) protects the regime; 2) exports Iranian terrorism all over the world; and 3) created Hezbollah, the terrorist militia dedicated to the destruction of Israel.
This was all reported in the main newspapers between 1979 and 1981. Why can’t anybody remember it? Because our relationship to the world is mediated, and the media ceased making any mention of this a long time ago.
| HIR documents PLO/Fatah’s role in the Iranian Islamic Revolution.[10] |
But anyone willing to invest 5 minutes will discover online an abundance of images of Yasser Arafat celebrating the Islamic Revolution with Khomeini in Teheran. He and Mahmoud Abbas—his longtime partner and PLO/Fatah co-leader—were the first international dignitaries who, immediately after the coup, alighted in Teheran for the festivities. The Iranian masses received Yasser Arafat like they would a messiah, and they competed to snatch the scarf on his head (keffiyeh) in hopes of treasuring it as a relic.
While Khomeini and his son announced that Iran’s priority would be ‘Palestine,’ Abbas explained to the Arab reporters in Teheran his ‘Plan of Phases.’ PLO/Fatah would promise peace in order to gain a piece of Israeli territory (first phase), and then they would proceed, with the help of Iran, to destroy Israel (second phase). Now they call it the ‘Peace Process.’
Nothing has changed. In August 2015, while Obama prepared the nuclear agreement with Iran, the official Iranian press reported a fact that the New York Times did not bother to share with Western audiences: PLO/Fatah and Iran renovated their vows with a “deal for all-out cooperation.”[11]
What can Trump do?
In democratic politics you can only do those things which the population can understand. And in politics, as in language, if something is not grammatical it becomes difficult to understand. For many, to hear that PLO/Fatah must be removed from Israeli soil is like hearing some kind of sacrilege. After hearing this they will say: “What nonsense! Didn’t they tell us that the world’s geopolitical health hinges on concluding the Peace Process with a state for the Palestinian Authority?” Yes, they did tell us that. So it follows that, for someone who sees the world like that, to remove PLO/Fatah from Israel is not a ‘grammatical’ idea, in other words, it is not a ‘politically correct’ decision.
Can it become grammatical? Well sure, but only if the true PLO/Fatah—the true ‘Palestinian Authority’—first becomes well known to all.
Who could be the one to educate the public? Why Trump. If Trump really is the enemy of Iran and the friend of Israel that he so histrionically claims to be, then he can, perched on his new podium, holding his world megaphone, make known the relationship between PLO/Fatah and Iran. He can, by showcasing the evidence, explain that PLO/Fatah, allied with Iran, proposes to turn the entire Palestinian Arab population into a suicide bomber to exterminate the Israeli Jewish people.
Once everybody understands this, PLO/Fatah’s prestige will have been destroyed. Then Trump can propose that the genocidal instrument of Iran, and oppressor of the Palestinian Arabs, PLO/Fatah, be removed from Israel. When you say it like that it’s grammatical. It computes. And in this manner a true solution to the conflict may be found.
In the blink of an eye, then, Trump can protect the Muslim and Jewish populations of the Middle East, jump-start a serious defense of the West, and turn around the chess game of world geopolitics. That—in principle—is the power of the president of the United States.
What can we expect? We suspect that, though the discourse will be different, Trump’s policies in the Middle East will be quite similar to Obama’s. We shall explain this suspicion in our following article.
@ channah:
test
“Assad Slaughtering Syrian Christians”
by Hani Bader
February 27, 2012 at 3:45 am
https://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/2884/assad-slaughtering-syrian-christians
Felix Quigley Said:
“Syrian Kurds welcome Trump airstrikes”
“…ARA News
Politicians of the Kurdish National Council (KNC) welcomed the air strikes by the Trump administration against the Syrian government on Friday.
“All Syrian people, including the Kurds, are happy and welcoming such an air campaign by the United States,” Zara Salih, a senior politician of the KNC-linked Yekiti Party told ARA News. “This is the least that can be done by Trump administration against the brutal and barbaric regime of Bashar al-Assad, who has killed more than half a million people and pushed about 7 million others out of the country.”
The Kurdish politician suggested that the anti-Assad airstrikes “would restore the American prestige lost since the Obama presidency.”
The former US President Obama said in 2012 that he would establish a ‘red-line’ against the use of chemical weapons and then did nothing…”
http://aranews.net/2017/04/syrian-kurds-welcome-trump-airstrikes/
@ Sebastien Zorn:
putting it another way, There were 44 terror attacks in the five year period between 1967 and 1972, 996 between 2000 and 2005, and 116 last year alone. There was also a huge jump in the years after Oslo. Check it out for yourself.
Also, Bin Laden attacked us because he looked at all the retreats, Reagan in Lebanon, Clinton in Somalia, I don’t know if he looked at Vietnam but he has been quoted on these. He thought we will always cut and run when attacked. By contrast, Iran, which was provoking Obama and tried it once with Trump, is now walking softly again.
Retreat kills.
@ Sebastien Zorn:
https://www.nbc.com/saturday-night-live/video/landshark/2832305?snl=1
@ Sebastien Zorn:
Correction: 996 Jews were murdered in 2000.
Israel withdrew from S. Lebanon in May 2000.
The Oslo Terror War began in September of that year.
Funny nobody connects the two.
http://www.israelnationalnews.com/News/News.aspx/155045
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Second_Intifada
Oh, I see the reason for the discrepancy in statistics. The Oslo Terror war went from 2000 to 2005. So, almost one thousand Jews murdered in terror attacks in Israel over a five year period. None in 1967 and 8 in 1968. Need I say more?
Making concessions encourages them to kill; it’s like cutting yourself in front of a shark.
relevant humor as metaphor for the lethal consequences of the prevalent politics of wishful thinking:
“The Shark, contrary to popular belief, will never harm you…” – Mel Brooks as the Indian Ichthyologist on the Johnny Carson Show, September 1970. (four years before the novel by Peter Benchley, grandson of humorist Robert Benchley, came out on which the movie and the SNL parody was later based.)
https://youtu.be/GhmxPyWWS90
@ Bear Klein:
I doubt it. History shows that when we advance, Muslims retreat. When we retreat, they strike.
For example:
“9/11 mastermind: ‘Cowboy’ George W. Bush’s quick military response prevented more attacks”
http://www.theblaze.com/news/2016/11/30/911-mastermind-cowboy-george-w-bushs-quick-military-response-prevented-more-attacks/
“Gadhafi: Iraq war may have influenced WMD decision
Such weapons no longer necessary, Libyan leader says”
Monday, December 22, 2003
http://www.cnn.com/2003/WORLD/africa/12/22/gadhafi.interview/
“The U.S. Invasion of Iraq: Strategic Consequences for Iran – Muftah
muftah.org/u-s-invasion-of-iraq-strategic-consequences-for-iran/
Mar 19, 2013 – The U.S. National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) of November 2007 stated that Iran had suspended nuclear weapons research in 2003. The NIE …”
http://muftah.org/u-s-invasion-of-iraq-strategic-consequences-for-iran/#.WOeLgrgrJhE
There were 112 terror attacks in Israel in 2016. There were none in 1967, and 8 in 1968. There were 2 in 1982, and 4 in 1983, 22 in 1985, 17 in 1986 when Israel withdrew from. S. Lebanon. 6 in 1999. Israel withdrew entirely in 2000. In 2000, there were 29.
Chronology of Terrorist Attacks in Israel
Introduction
compiled by Wm. Robert Johnston
last updated 8 January 2017
http://www.johnstonsarchive.net/terrorism/terrisrael.html
War abroad brings peace at home.
Assad dropped the chemical weapons we know this with great certainty. Israel has proof and so does the USA.
Trump has changed the equation in the middle east now.
The question is will Iran/Hezis/Syrians try and pay USA back via terroism? They will not try and do this is in a military direct action for fear of being splattered.
Felix Quigley Said:
Because?
Felix Quigley Said:
Are you blood-libeling Israel?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Qana
The Al Dura hoax was another blood libel! You are comparing Assad to Israel?
http://www.meforum.org/3076/muhammad-al-dura-hoax
Whose side are you on? And, why?
Seabastien …surely the Alawite, the Christian and the Kurd and other minorities are natural allies…as to China they are very globalist and destabilizing force
I do not believe Assad dropped gas
I think this situation has all the hallmarks of a Qana
It all reminds me very much of Qana above all and also of the el Dura set up
@ Felix Quigley:
Honestly, how silly can you get? China is Stalinist, Trump could go Jihadist, Trump sacrifices the Alawite and the Christian? China, only nominally Communist, is State-Capitalist and profit-oriented with an enormous private sector, as well — as a Trot, surely you of all people should acknowledge that* — Trump retaliated against the base from which the Syrian air force gassed its own citizens, as international law requires and Obama failed to do. Brother.
—
*Plus, as far as I know, they don’t have a lot of congenitally handicapped people in positions of power as …
(wait for it)
… one would expect of a “deformed workers’ state.”
Apropos of Nothing, here’s a Korean Drama I know you will appreciate:
“Trot Lovers” (2014)
https://www.viki.com/tv/23611c-trot-lovers?locale=en
YJ DRAIMAN
The situation is in flux and this centres on Trump
If Trump goes Jihad, which he is doing, there is no Jewish constituency TODAY in America to detain him.
russia is a weak country
The Chinese leadership are Stalinists
if Trump goes Jihad and I mean creates an alliance with Islam things will move very fast and out of control of the pedestrian Israeli leadership at all levels
Will America go Fascist, antisemitic and hating Israel
Today Trump sacrifices the Alawite and Christian. Tomorrow the Jew
It is reported that Trump ordered the strikes on the Alawite and then ate his hearty dinner with the Chinese Stalinist…may seem a detail but drawing on history especially the 1929 Stalin Hitler pact the situation should worry Jews
Marxism as a theory drawing on Hegelian dialectics instructs that every material thing is in flux. America in 2017 is obviously weak in many critical ways…that is an important starting point
And in flux if the socialist revolution as in 1917 does not happen America will head to Fascism
IRAN NOW CONTROLS IRAQ THANKS TO THE BUSH WAR
But the Trump strike on minority Alawite Assad shows that Trump is heading the same direction in Syria…and beyond
No difference just in that case ruling with the Sunni Islam
So that is the total picture. Obama was very much the Jihadist but nothing has changed with the election of Trump because America and Britain ruling the world IN ALLIANCE WITH Jihad, Islam and Sharia
Trump is a protestant Christian leader in an alliance with Islam
The Vatican is in on this
Israel must stand its ground and takes back all the Jewish historical territories with no concessions and no capitulation to the biased world pressure.
The real culprits in unjustly discriminating against the Jewish State and its leaders are not only the leftist in Europe, as their hostility to Israel has been self-evident. No the real enemy are the left progressive morons, many of them Jewish, who support such hapless and feckless corrupt leaders. Just love how the Europeans and others ignore the Arab-Palestinians opposition to a Jewish state for the last 70 years and their commitment to barbarity, terror and violence. Hmm, settlements are the main problem??? Then why were the Arabs attacking Jews in Palestine/Israel in the 1500’s, 1600’s, 1700’s, 1800’s, and after WWI (when the Arabs/Muslims received over 12 million sq. km. of territory with a wealth of oil reserves of which is 70% vacant) in the 1920’s 30’s, 40’s and 50’s or during Ottoman and Jordan occupation? Why did the Arab world reject a second 2 state solution at the outset of Israel’s existence? The Arabs should be very happy with Jordan which is also on Jewish territory and was set-up in violation of international treaties and agreements, (including the 1919 Faisal Weizmann Agreement) taking away over three quarters of Jewish allocated territory as the new Arab-Palestinian State in 1922 (the Arabs expelled all the Jews from Jordan which is the new Arab-Palestinian State; they also confiscated all their assets and forbid Jews from living in Jordan). The Arabs also have over 12 million sq. km. of territory with a wealth of oil reserves, they received after WWI. Moreover the Arab countries terrorized and expelled over a million Jewish families (that lived in those countries for over 2,800 years) who now mostly were settled in The Land of Israel, and the Arabs confiscated all the assets of the million Jewish families terrorized and expelled from Arab countries, which included, personal property and valuables, businesses, homes and over 120,000 sq. km. of Jewish owned Real Estate for over 2,500 years (which is 6 times the size of Israel). All of Israel’s concession and compromise have made things worse, it got us a terrorist enclave in Gaza with thousands of rockets landing in Israel and an Arab PA run by murderers and criminals, whose goal is to terrorize and destroy the Jewish State. It is time to stand our ground and take what is ours without any reservations.
Anyone who thinks wants or recommends putting another terrorist Arab State in Judea and Samaria aka West Bank of the Jordan River, needs to have his head examined and his faculties questioned. Any government that wants to put an Arab terrorist state in Judea and Samaria must be replaced.
The Oslo Accord is null and void as stated by Mahmoud Abbas in his speech at the U.N. in the summer of 2015. The U.N. issues a non-binding resolution, which has no legal standing or validity.
It is time to apply Israel’s sovereignty in Judea and Samaria and dismantle the terrorist entity known as the Arab Palestinian authority headed by the terrorist Mahmmoud Abbas.
YJ Draiman
He executed Obama’s red line in Syria after Putin chewed out BB for implicating Assad. He informed Russia and then retaliated within 72 hours. That’s not business as usual.
Wow, this is eye-opening. Fatah and Iran- the 70’s were a long time ago and many of us were not yet up on world affairs. But one thing is for sure – Every time Trump talks about two-states, he reveals an ignorance about the land of Israel. it is impossible for Israel’s survival to give a huge chunk of land in the middle of the country to an enemy whose goal is to annihilate Israel. Besides, Israel gave land to Jordan and left Gaza. There is no more land to give- Israel is already so tiny. Plus there are enemies all around on every border, except for the western sea border, which is where the enemies want to put us. On the other hand, it’s not really Trump’s fault to consider land for peace – it is PM Netanyahu’s, who knows it can’t work but seems to be playing along with the Arabs, knowing they will never agree to peace. To keep doing this is insanity, and I really hope Trump will realize this and support many Israeli’s hopes of annexing the territories and deporting the Arab complainers. The Arabs who remain, about half, would be happy with this deal, according to several polls. No land for peace, but all Arabs who live in Israel must support it as the Jewish state.
The french saying is ” Plus cela change et MOINS CELA CHANGE “; the repetition of ” change ” gives the proverb a pun touch . Now the content of M.Gil-White is very solid , the same US establishment since Carnegie , Ford, Rockefeller has dominated the formulation of the US foreign policy . M.Gil-White mentionned John Mc Cloy as someone who clarified the influence of the Council of Foreign Relations . It is worth to remember that John Mc Cloy, undersecretary for war of FDR during WW II , was the key element of the US government who succeeded in NOT DESTROYING the deaths camps when it was possible to do it by air ; John Mc Cloy role has been studied by David Wyman in the ” abandonment of the jews ” .
So ” Plus cela et moins cela change ” rings an alarm bell when we saw in 2016 the same scenario of ” abandonment of the jews ” played by Obama-Kerry and Iran ;
The US-Iran agreement is as sound for Israel as when John Mc Cloy intervened to avoid the bombing of Auschwitz.