T. Belman. Yadlin asks rhetorically, “is there anyone who would like to go back into southern Lebanon” and implies , no one. He might have said the same about Gaza.
Before the Lebanon pullout an average of 6 soldiers per year were killed there But in the 2006 Lebanese war, Israel suffered 121 soldier casualties and 42 civilian casualties. At the previous average of 6 per year that is 30 year’s worth. Plus we are faced with 100,000 rockets and another war sooner and later. The same can be said about the consequences of disengagement from Gaza.
The real question should be if we could reverse the withdrawals and bring back to life the casualties in excess of 6 per year, would we? Probably.
Former MI chief Amos Yadlin says unilateral action preferable to status quo.
By Gili Cohen, HAARETZ | Jan. 28, 2014
The country’s leading strategic think tank recommended on Tuesday that if the diplomatic process with Palestinians fails, Israel unilaterally withdrawal from 85 percent of the West Bank – between the security barrier and the Jordan Valley.
The Institute for National Security Studies, headed by former Military Intelligence chief Amos Yadlin, urged that in such a move, Israel retain the large settlement blocs, the area known as the Ben-Gurion Airport corridor (for the purpose of thwarting potential Palestinian rocket attacks on planes), and keep military control over the Jordan Valley.
The INSS maintained that in the event of the peace talks’ failure, Israel should carry out the withdrawal plan even in the face of Palestinian opposition, while seeking out the support of the United States and major European countries such as the United Kingdom, France and Germany.
“We prefer this process over remaining with the status quo,” said Yadlin. “It is true that unilateral action has a bad image because of the withdrawal from Lebanon and the withdrawal from Gaza. Still, if there is anyone who would like to go back into southern Lebanon, let him raise his hand, please.” The recommendation was made as part of the INSS’s annual strategic assessment.
“Security should be preserved by the army, and the Jordan Valley needs to remain in the army’s possession. The line that Israel will draw as the border will be the separation barrier and the Jordan Valley,” Yadlin said, adding that in his view, the most important issue was not the eastern border and the Jordan Valley region, but the future western one, which would have to provide protection to Highway 6 and Israel’s home front.
“IDF troops should stay in the Valley to prevent weapon smuggling and entrance of terrorists into the West Bank,” Yadlin said, noting that the State must “keep an area that would be used as a bargaining chip for future negotiations on a permanent agreement, and the civilians that will be evacuated from must be treated in the most appropriate and respected manner.”
Yadlin said unilateral steps should only be taken after there is a genuine attempt to reach an agreement, including generous offers from Israel.
If the Palestinians push that off – which he believes they will do, since they are unlikely to approve an agreement that will end the conflict, forfeit Palestinian claims of a “right of return,” and take into consideration Israel’s security demands – then Israel should get the US, France, Germany and England behind the idea of unilateral Israeli steps toward a two-state solution.
Turning to the world powers’ agreement with Iran, Yadlin said the final agreement needed to keep Iran years, rather than several months, away from reaching a nuclear bomb. “Iran is three to nine months away from the moment it decides that it wants a nuclear bomb to reaching one,” he said.
He outlined three scenarios expected to take place in the near future: the failure of the talks between the world powers and Iran; an extension of the interim agreement between Israel and the Palestinians by six months and a “bad deal” for Israel regarding Iran; or a final agreement with Iran that would be acceptable to Israel.
“Israel can protect its interests (on the Palestinian issue), but it must be more flexible [regarding the peace process], and that way we will also have the ability to be firmer on the Iranian subject and get the United States on board,” Yadlin said. “I am the last to accept the assertion that all the other problems will be solved if we settle the Israeli-Palestinian issue, but moving forward will help us promote our interests on the Iranian issue.” INSS officials also said that Israel was facing two key issues: the U.S.’s policy regarding the Middle East and the continued upheavals in the Arab world.
According to the institute’s strategic assessment regarding Syria, implementation of the international plan to dismantle Syria’s chemical weapons is vital. If Assad’s regime should survive, “Israel must continue considering military operations to strike at strategic arms in Syria to prevent them from being transferred to Hezbollah in Lebanon or from falling into the hands of jihadists in Syria itself,” the assessment held. The INSS noted that Syria would continue suffering from instability, which would have significance for Israel as well, particularly in the area of its border with Syria, meanwhile causing problems for Jordan, too, since the Syrian crisis could spill over into the Hashemite kingdom, causing internal shocks.
Regarding Israel’s talks with the Palestinians, the institute maintains that moving forward will improve Israel’s security cooperation in the region, besides the peace process’s obvious significance for the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Institute officials believe this can be done via negotiations toward a permanent agreement or a transitional agreement, or by unilateral withdrawal.
Yadlin also pointed out positive things about the regional balance of power. Israel’s borders are almost completely quiet, with deterrence proving effective with the neighboring countries and also with terrorist groups based in Lebanon and the Gaza Strip. He also noted that the peace treaties with Egypt and Jordan have held, as have relations between Israel and the United States, noting the annual $3 billion in security assistance, encouragement of the army in fields such as anti-ballistic defense, and support of systems such as Iron Dome that Israel receives from the United States.
“In 2013, Israel proved that it is the strongest military, intelligence and operational power in the Middle East, and its deterrence was very strong,” Yadlin said. “Despite the actions that were attributed to Israel, calm was maintained,” he said, seemingly referring to reported Israeli air strikes on Syrian weapons caches possibly meant for Hezbollah.
Yadlin saw a point of light in how Hezbollah’s involvement in the fighting in Syria affects its legitimacy. “Hezbollah is sending its best fighters to Syria, so it is less available to fight against Israel. Hezbollah has lost its status and legitimacy on the Arab street and in Lebanese society. Once seen as Lebanon’s protector, Hezbollah is seen today as a group that participates, together with Assad, in the massacre of tens of thousands of Sunnis in Syria.”
@ mar55:
While Japan as a collective is more disciplined than any in the West, the young are far removed from traditional japanes culture of their parents and even much more from their grandparents…!!! The young under 25 in Japan are almost as westernized as their counterparts in the west. In some ways even more so.
Max Said:
As usual you misread both cause and ,not to mention motivation of both friends and enemies.
@ Max:
Sorry aabout using your wording. I had not read your comments.
You are right about the military tradition and pride.
It is a society with a lot of self respect and very disciplined.
@ honeybee:
Dichas of my grandma: Eventualmente a todo cerdo le llega su SAN MARTIN. Eventually San Martin’s day (traditional day of the slaughtering the pigs) arrives to every pig.
For real, try it in Spain.
@ honeybee:
@ SHmuel HaLevi 2:
I’m afraid in this case they have awaken a sleeping giant.
There are not as many samurai as in the past but, the Japanese mentality and hard work ethics can do a lot. There is advantages to a homogeneous society.
@ SHmuel HaLevi 2:
@ mar55:
@ Max:
Dichas of Deborah: ” Eventually everybody overplays their game”
@ mar55:
Officially “bushido” Samurai are historic relics, yet, as we all know that is a rigid, ancestral, embedded part of the Japanese Heritage. They may take a more modern form but it is there nevertheless. The monstrous Islamics may well see a power that they should have never provoked.
And then there are Gurkhas, the Nepalese warrior caste as well. They are also rigidly trained as warriors and also specialize on knife war. Their lightening use of the khukury knife, short saber is nothing that a sane individual want to provoke either.
I have the feeling that the Jihad march may well be about to start imploding.
Japan is mono-cultural and is China.
Perfect safe retirement countries for Westerners who got the moxie.
…
I met many Israelis who after doing their IDF service took a year sabbatical to travel in China – a very safe place for foreign expats.
…
Yes, ISIS made a mistake with that. There was very little return on investment in going after the Japanese. Maybe they have awoken a “sleeping giant”. lol
Japanese national pride and historical sense of military honor will probably have a result in some action plan.
But ISIS has no sense, they are trying to dominate the world – they are hoping to trigger the Islamopocalypse now rather than later.
@ SHmuel HaLevi 2:
We heard the news this morning. I do nor remember if it was in National Geographic or the Smithsonian Magazine where they had a story about the Samurai. Years ago the training was from childhood but, what it is curious is how they make themselves the swords they use. The type of steel and everything about the process is a very complicated and a time consuming effort.
The finished product is a very efficient and beautiful product. Also in PBS they had a story about the Samurai. Not as detailed as what I read. A few of these Samurai can cut many of the ISIS heads very efficiently and finish so many of them so fast that the rest might decide to run away. It is an art. From the forging of the metal to the training of a Samurai. Japan does not want any muslims in its society and they do not make any excuses. One or two might live in Japan
and have to go through a lot of permits and dispensations to live there. I know one who is married to a Japanese woman.
Thank you HB for your service to the world press.
@ mar55:
I have to introduce a developing situation.
ISIS just murdered TWO Japanese persons by beheading.
Japan is a Muslim free society and one I would not suggest to rub the wrong way.
The Japanese PM just said some words that Islam is likely not to understand.
My guess is that a few Samurai battalions would know how to behead after several thousand years of training at that.
ISIS/Islam may well have committed suicide.
@ honeybee:
OK…:) 🙂 Excellent team work! Bubble duly burst… ouch!
yamit82 Said:
Yes, I truly understand that everyone realizes that you and only HB has the superior intelligence to compose such erudite, insightful and intelligent comments on Israeli politics. And no typos. Thank you HB,the check is in the mail. Bless yore l’tle ol heart !!!!!!!!!!
honeybee Said:
Well then you can write my reply to your comment above. Since I’m already paying for your services. 😛
mar55 Said:
Not true I still comment. Have a nasty head cold which allows me to type between coughs and nose blowing. not easy to do. 🙂 I can still multitask 😉
yamit82 Said:
Sugar darlin, it was obvious to everyone.
@ SHmuel HaLevi 2:
Thank you. Yamit82 must be busy because he is not around very often.
I know when the two of you start to talk about politics you mostly agree with one another. I’m waiting with anticipation
the next few weeks. by then all the changes and alliances would be done and the picture will be clearer.
@ honeybee:
You weren’t supposed to tell anyone about our arrangement!! 🙁
SHmuel HaLevi 2 Said:
I hate to burst your bubble, I write all of Yamit82’s comment for a fee.
@ mar55:
Thank you for your confidence Mar55. For the best on site analysis Yamit82 is it. I do my best to follow on his steps. Many others in this blog are also excellent commentators.
The “news” spread by the media in Israel is for the most carefully fabricated. Polls are completely untrustworthy at best.
Netanyahu has either found his step or turned the page on everybody as far as misleading goes. I will give him the benefit of the doubt for now. His selection of Begin’s son for the list is very poor as far as I see it.
The Likud is way ahead of the Obama concoction including hapless Hertzog and the snake “cara de trapo”… 🙂
And the Obama sabotage crew headed by one fellow called Bird financed and led by the administration is only making it easier for the Likud.
Due to tactical errors Mr. Bennett lost some ground but will be back before elections.
Overall there is still about 40% of the voters that will not declare their position so polls are not worth the time of anyone looking for facts.
This is what a group of High School seniors and college students organized poll show.
LIKUD 26, Hertzog-Livni 19, Mr. Bennett 15, (he lost 4 points due to errors), Islamic Front 11, Lapid 9, UTJ Orthodox 8, Lieberman 7, Mr. Kohalon 7, Meretz 6, Yishai-Marzel 5, Shas 5. There are unassigned spots.
Be well everyone.
@ SHmuel HaLevi 2:
I check everyday with Times of Israel and the Jerusalem post.
You are very well informed and yamit82. Please let us know whee each of the candidates stand. I hoe Livni (cara de trapo)
loses and loses big. How does Bennet fits in the equation?
Netanyahu is gong to benefit with the spat with Ocrap. How is labor doing? You guys are more accurate than the news.
@ honeybee:
Your recipe is excellent. The same as my. I got it years ago from the NYT. About 40 years. The only thing I do not add is bulgur (good idea)and some things i had to take them out such as cumin. Stomach problems. I make three pounds of beef one
pound of beans. Thick and tasty. No carrots but green pepper.
and lots of garlic onions and of course picante which I had to cut for the same reason as the cumin.
The Chinese have a bottle of red pepper that is hotter than the Texas stuff. Put it at the table in front of my son law and let him have fun. Good for winter.
Get the Jeans at Land Ends. Good quality and excellent value.
The place to get all basic stuff like polo shirts and jeans. shorts and all everyday clothes. My grandkids that is all they wear with the exception of more dressy stuff for Shul or an outing that requires something more formal. They take the the abuse of tree climbing and children play.
Please by request more Deborah dichas. Glad to see you.
@ NormanF:
Whatever the world demands is not important. What Torah demands and it is clearly stated es, we should be there.
In Manhattan we have lots of what yu could call and many people call them including me.JinosJews in name only. They are the biggest liberals. For them whatever the Democratic Party say it is more important that what the Bible say. Talking to a friend if they hear what they do not agree wit it. They are rude and insult. Only platitudes. Luckily my friend is very knowledgeable an has a championship mouth. They were not too happy about it. Reality has not been made for them. They have no values and I wonder what did we do to deserve such a plague? I’m very sure I would like to live in Israel. I’ll do my best to get there. Never to come back.
@ SHmuel HaLevi 2:
I shall run out and buy a new pair jeans just for the occasion.
@ honeybee:
Thank you HB! I’ll see to it we cook some soon. I’ll let you know in advance.
@ SHmuel HaLevi 2:
In order to cheer you up, somewhat, I am sending you a recipe for Kosher Cowboy Chili.
http://www.jewishworldreview.com/ess/chili_tricks.php3
It is the same Oslo trash shifting shapes to appear different. Those “think tanks” are bought a dime a dozen.
And pop profusely for every election cycle or foreign official visit. The same pompous assed talking heads are appointed to blabber their sabotage plans time and time again.
I dont see how this idea is an improvement in any way and carries a great deal of extra risk. The one approach that has consistently failed is leaving the land. Why not just retreat back to poland or chepitz? Why would it be any better than the the status quo, he explains nothing.
the best solution is the opposite, fill YS with Jews, millions of them,
I GUARONTEE THAT WILL SOLVE THE PROBLEM!!!!!
yadlin is diddlin
@ SHmuel HaLevi 2:
The unJews in the Israeli elite are cowards, traitors and men frightened of their own shadows.
They want to abandon the country because the world demands it.
They don’t go far enough: remove every last Jew from Israel and there will be sulh! But they know the world would never welcome them.
They give substance to every anti-Semitic accusation ever aimed at the Jewish people.
They are shameless and depraved.
@ SHmuel HaLevi 2:
If you liked Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in Gaza, you’ll love Islamic State in Judea and Samaria.
In other words, a radical Islamic terrorist state camped at the outskirts of Jerusalem. This is exactly what would happen if INSS’ proposed plan is implemented.
Should be called the “Top Stupid Tank” – All withdrawn Territory will be used to send rockets and terrorists at Israel. Jews will move from their homes and lives will be destroyed to achieve what goal? Peace – NO – Security – NO.
This thinking is like mental masturbation. Nothing good will
bear fruit of it.
The “ha’aretz” and yadlin. There could be not any better combination when it comes to sabotaging our rights.
How about abandoning 100 kibbutzim instead?