To Promote Nonproliferation, Kill the Iran Deal Now

The Europeans won’t do business with Tehran if that means losing access to American banks.

By Jamil N. Jaffer WALL STREET JOURNAL April 29, 2018

Will President Trump terminate the Iran nuclear deal? Many national-security experts are concerned he will, by refusing to waive sanctions that are up for renewal in mid-May. Some worry that unilaterally reimposing sanctions on Iran would isolate the U.S. internationally, as Europe’s leaders still broadly support the deal, known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action. Others argue that the JCPOA is working and Iran is largely abiding by its commitments. Still others urge the U.S. to continue waiving sanctions if the Europeans are willing to consider potential changes to the deal.

Each of these camps is deeply misguided. Should Mr. Trump refuse to continue the Obama -era policy of waiving Iran sanctions and opt to reimpose them unilaterally, Europe will have no choice but to go along. The key sanctions imposed by Congress in 2011-12—in the face of staunch opposition from the Obama White House—are “secondary” sanctions, meaning they operate by imposing costs on countries that continue to do business with Iran. Under this regime, every nation must choose between doing business with Iran and maintaining access to the American banking system. This isn’t a real choice, since no country can function economically by cutting itself off from the U.S.

Indeed, the Europeans lobbied hard against these sanctions—and convinced the Obama White House to do the same—because they knew they could never choose Iran over the U.S. They were right. When it became clear that congressional support for the sanctions was sufficient to override Mr. Obama’s threatened veto, Europe also went along, albeit unhappily. The massive economic pressure produced by the sanctions forced the Iranian regime to the negotiating table for the first time in years.

The Obama administration ultimately squandered its negotiating leverage on a weak deal with deep and enduring flaws: extremely short sunsets, after which Iran will be able to sprint to a nuclear weapon even faster than before; the ability to conduct research under the deal on advanced uranium centrifuges that will further shorten Iran’s breakout time; expanded testing of ballistic missiles that would widen the kill zone of an Iranian nuclear weapon; a self-testing regime on existing nuclear military sites that protects Iran’s illegal weaponization activities; sanctions relief providing an economic boost to the Iranian regime, removing significant pressure and providing the time, space, and resources to work on a valid warhead design; and no link whatever to Iran’s destabilizing activities in the region or support for terrorist groups world-wide like Hezbollah.

Iran doesn’t intend to keep up its end of the bargain. Even if it did, the JCPOA would be still be a bad deal. It was never really in the national-security interests of the U.S. Bipartisan majorities in both houses of Congress recognized this by voting against the deal, albeit not by large enough margins to get past a filibuster threat in the Senate.

Some of the JCPOA’s opponents have recently come out—including in these pages—in favor of keeping it in place, at least while Congress or the Europeans try to “improve it by creating a unified front on new restrictions. But President Trump has tried this approach for more than a year and it hasn’t worked. Congress has so many other, more pressing priorities, and getting 60 votes in the Senate for a revised deal isn’t in the cards.

Europe’s leaders have an interest in maintaining the status quo. If the deal survives, they get the economic benefits for which they’ve been waiting. Perversely, the Europeans have an incentive to string the U.S. along; the longer they can convince the administration they are willing to work on revising the deal, the longer they can dine out on its benefits. Then, if the Trump a does toss the deal overboard, they get to blame Washington. Mr. Trump ought not be fooled by the Europeans’ feigned interest in further negotiations, particularly since they oppose extending the deal’s sunsets indefinitely and tying Iran’s continued support for terrorist groups to the deal. These issues are key for the U.S.

The president should stop waiting for Congress or the Europeans to get serious about renegotiating the JCPOA. Instead, he should force everyone’s hand and restore American leverage by reimposing sanctions now. If the president wants an opportunity to demonstrate his deal-making ability, he should drag everyone to the negotiating table and put their commitments to nonproliferation to the test.

Mr. Jaffer is founder of the National Security Institute at the George Mason University’s Scalia Law School. He worked as an associate counsel to President George W. Bush and as chief counsel and senior adviser to the Senate Foreign Relations Committee.

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This article was sent to Jewish Journal by Howard Laitin with the following comment:
David,.

I have communicated with you often and I have transmitted to you many materials on the Iranian nuclear deal.

Previously I urged you to thoroughly review the very disturbing negative reports that Amir Hossein Motaghi has publicly made regarding the roles of Valerie Jarrett and John Kerry in promoting the “deal” with greater enthusiasm and with greater drive than even the Iranian regime’s zealots present at the negotiation. Even the French delegation publicly complained about John Kerry and Wendy Sherman.

Also, it is now public knowledge as to the Ben Rhodes echo chamber which clandestinely financed false reporting in order to create apparent public/media support for the deal. John Brennan has been implicated providing false intelligence as part of the Obama administration’s sales efforts.

As of today there are no signed agreements. Inspections are not carried out in any area that the Iranian’s deem to be military [ and in the past nearly all of the cheating place at Iranian “military “ sites].

The Jewish Journal played a very strong role in supporting the Obama administration’s attempts to neutralize and demonize opponents of the JCPOA. [ If you want I will review my files and send you article after article in which the JJ gave representative Adam Schiff, former representative Mel Levine, and other participants in the echo chamber a platform and credibility within the Jewish community.]

Recently representative Adam Schiff has again come out in support of maintaining the deal. Demand of him , before you give him any space, a certified copy signed by the Iranians as to the specifics of the deal….. AND ANY “SECRET SIDE DEALS Also Adam Schiff states that the Iranians complying with the deal. Demand of him full information as to how and where the supposed critical sites were actually examined to assure compliance.