T. Belman. I am unaware of any changes to the stalemate since then but I am very concerned about his recommendation that after Israel destroys Hamas by retaking Gaza, that it should return it to the PA. The PA is not Israel’s partner. It is Israel’s existential enemy.
For the last 13 years, the division of the Arabs into two groups has helped Israel to avoid making more concession to their cause. Besides that, every effort should be made to get the 1.5 million Arabs there to emigrate to Egypt or Jordan or elsewhere. In my Memo to Kushner, I explored this recommendation in depth.
Yoni Ben-Menachem, an Israeli journalist and senior researcher at the Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs, spoke to an August 30 Middle East Forum Webinar (video) about escalating violence emanating from Gaza and what Israel can do about it.
Ben-Menachem said that the Taliban takeover of Afghanistan has “alarming” implications for Israel because Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad are “encouraged by the victory.” All of these terrorist organizations “share the same Islamic ideology of jihad and sumud [steadfastness],” he explained. “The lesson of Afghanistan is that they have to stay on the land and not give any inch … [and with]stand Israeli pressures, and they will win in the end.” Two months ago, Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh met in Doha with Taliban leader Abdul Ghani Baradar, who praised Hamas’s war with Israel.
As U.S. troops pulled out of Afghanistan in late August, Hamas and the other militant Islamic factions in Gaza staged violent rallies and border riots in hopes of pressuring Israel to relax its blockade of Gaza. Hamas demanded that Israel allow the “immediate transfer” of $30 million per month of purported humanitarian aid from Qatar (from which it takes a hefty “commission”), allow deliveries of construction materials to resume, and otherwise return to the status quo prior to Israel’s May 2021 Guardian of the Walls operation against Hamas.
Israel has rejected such Hamas efforts to “impose new rules of game on Israel,” while insisting that any new agreement provide for the return of four Israeli prisoners being held by Hamas. As Hamas has rejected Israel’s terms, the situation has remained a dangerous stalemate.
Ben-Menachem emphasized that Israel must adopt a more robust response to the continuing Hamas threat. “I don’t believe in this strategy of rounds of fighting in Gaza every few months or every year or two years,” he said. “We need a strategic decision about the future of the Gaza Strip … [a] new roadmap in Gaza and what to do with Gaza, then we’ll know where we’re heading. Right now, it’s full confusion. We don’t know what we’re doing.”
Instead of continuing the cycle of attacks and retaliation that has taken place for the past 14 years, Ben-Menachem urged the Israeli government to “reoccupy the Gaza Strip” long enough to destroy attack tunnels, rocket factories, and other terrorist infrastructure built up by Hamas since it took over the enclave in 2007. Whereas Hamas once had to smuggle rockets into Gaza through Sinai, it now has the technological know-how and facilities to manufacture “sophisticated” rockets in Gaza itself. After Israel cleans out the terror infrastructure, said Ben-Menachem, it should then deliver a “demilitarized” Gaza to Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas (aka Abu Mazen) under the supervision of international forces.
| Israel should “reoccupy” Gaza, destroy terrorist infrastructure, and hand it over “demilitarized” to the PA. |
However, Ben-Menachem does not believe the “fragile” Israeli government in power today would make such a move, which would require a “strong leader” and the “support of the U.S. administration.” Israel’s “political echelon” balks at taking bold actions, such as targeted assassinations of terrorist leaders, for fear that they will lead to escalation. Ben-Menachem does not see avoiding escalation as a viable strategy. “You cannot co-exist with Hamas.”
Marilyn Stern is communications coordinator at the Middle East Forum.
As long as Israel asks the US for permission it will not work.
@ Felix
What utter bullshit.
Didn’t NATO ATTACK Serbia when Clinton was US Pres.?
Besides Biden isn’t threatening to attack. He is threatening sanctions.
After the negotiations, NATO won’t invite Ukraine to join and Russia won’t invade Ukraine.
Remember that Israpundit became linked to out and out liars and when the makers of the electronic voting machines sued… Israpundit and friends shut up. Talk big but action not forthcoming.
All those lies about those voting machines is the same lies machine you run denying global warming. Has the Jewish people descended into lies?
@SEBASTIEN-
I am not disputing the points you are trying to make. You make them well. But whatever “deflection” the Israeli govt. tries to make will ultimately be forgotten as if it never was. The International Community collectively has made and broken as many promises and agreements with Israel as the Arab Mamzerim in Israel.
I believe that regardless of whoever is an adversarial US President, the support in Congress is too strong to sever.
And as for Sun Tzu, he is a mythical figure, and there is no evidence that generals who are defeated never, or almost never do much planning. Many defeated generals do VERY much planning, but are defeated by accidents, weather conditions, (as at Waterloo) fatal errors, (Grouchy) and of course Ney and Napoleon’s mish-mash over Count D’Erlon’s 20.000 man Corps (40-45 guns) . They would have been decisive.
The British inn both Boer Wars made meticulous plans.
As did Wallenberg and The Swedish king who was highly victoerious but untimately defeated.
Sorry for talking about Waterloo so much, but is a PRIME example of a compendium of fatal errors, -after so much planning for victory.
And Sun Tzu is far back in the mists of nearly 3000 years ago…maybe. No one really knows.
This was negotiated post decision because his lawyer talked him into doing based on his fear of the circumstances. His lawyer then went to the White House and got the piece of paper that amounted to nothing, as you noted.
@Bear wasn’t it also in exchange for the written promise by Bush to guarantee American support for Israeli sovereignty over the large communities which Obama subsequently refused to honor?
@Edgar You said, “The land is ours, we should finally take possession. International opposition will always be on Israel’s back whether or not this would happen.”
I completely agree. What I am calling for is strategizing on how to deal with the opposition in advance so that arguments can be made to allay the paralyzing fears of those who rule and make policy, not to mention the general public. And, of course, the policy that Israel has nearly always followed in wars with great success, the policy enunciated in Sun Tzu’s “The art of War,” also a favorite of Trump’s, and he was mostly succesful until the end.
“Now the general who wins a battle makes many calculations in his temple ere the battle is fought. The general who loses a battle makes but few calculations beforehand. Thus do many calculations lead to victory, and few calculations to defeat: how much more no calculation at all! It is by attention to this point that I can foresee who is likely to win or lose.”
This is the point I am trying to make. I am not advocating appeasement or defeatism.
@Edgar You know it’s never about economics with the Arabs except for the Abraham Accords which is about getting Israel’s help to retool for a post-oil future and form a common front against Iran. And Egypt isn’t the UAE. The man in the street doesn’t even support it there. Their antisemitism runs deep. Additionally, Egypt is sick of dealing with Palestinian terrorists on their border. The Palestinians have waged war against every country that hosted them. So they give lip service to the TSS.
NATO has not gone into one country that has not invited it. Russia may not like it but its former Soviet Empire died. Instead of making peace with all its neighbors, Putin is trying to reestablish the Soviet Union and enslave many neighboring countries again.
People of Hong Kong and the people of Taiwan clearly want to be independent and not ruled by the communist dictatorship of Red China. The Sea of China is international waters and the Chinese are trying to conquer it for themselves.
@SEBASTIEN
Egypt could easily absorb them without even noticing. Being a major recipient of Western cash, it has always been a basket case and still will not be allowed to disintegrate. You know the reason.
Besides, Ted, in his Jordan Option, gave a very detailed cost of multi-storied prefab housing, and more. In vast quantities, it could cost even less. The total was a mere fleabite compared to every other option, and without any back draught. If this eventuated they’d be far better off than ever before, including whatever handouts Gantz wants to give them.
The land is ours, we should finally take possession. International opposition will always be on Israel’s back whether or not this would happen.
The whole idea of leaving Gaza was flawed. As many people said at the time including myself, that you can not pull out the IDF. Gaza was dangerous but is now more dangerous. Pulling out of Rafa, Gush Katif and the three Kibbutzim in the north all was a colossal mistake.
It did not take a genius to foretell what would happen. Sharon betrayed Israel to change the subject of the investigation of him and his sons.
@Sebastien
Well described!
Also the China Sea is international waters, not Chinese waters. The US or any other nation has a right to sail thru them within the stipulated limits agreed upon under the Law of the Sea Convention.
@Ted Belman I think your Jordan Option is a good plan but its weakness is that it relies on action by an American President. Mike Huckabee was the only candidate who might have supported it so far. In August 2015, he said, “Israel has more claim to Judea and Samaria than the U.S. does to Manhattan.”
@ Frank Adam I love it but would Egypt take them voluntarily and what would that do to the Abraham Accords? The next step might be to speculate on how Egypt might be induced to take them.
Except for Azerbaijan. I support pro-Israel Muslim Azerbaijan against anti-Israel, pro-Iran Christian Armenia.
@Felix Quigley I think Taiwan and Hong Kong are very different from Crimea in that the Crimeans have voted and taken up arms to rejoin Russia after being part of the Ukraine for a very short time on a voluntary federated basis which ended when the Obama/Kerry/Biden inspired coup overthrew the government and tore up the Constitution and with it Crimean autonomy which was also predicated on the assumption of continued alliance with Russia which has bases there. And most of the population is Russian speaking. Crimea was actually a country once which is more than the Ukraine can say before 1990.
However, Taiwan and Hong Kong do not want to be part of China which is one of the worst totalitarian regimes in the world. The British only left Hong Kong on condition that the freedoms it enjoyed would be maintained many years in the future. China violated the agreement. The people of Hong Kong are up in arms. The people of Taiwan are ready to fight the invasion. Tibet is another one China has no right to rule.
Don’t know much about Kashmir – apart from sweaters – so I won’t comment, other than to say that if its about giving Muslims more territory, I’m against it.
It’s a matter of the actual right to self-determination which belong to peoples not governments.
If the government were not afraid of international pressure, it could fend off the danger of committment of forces to re-conquest and policing while facing potential invasion from without, by the use of salami tactics. In response to every terror attack, including attempts, a piece of land of either the PA or Gaza could be seized, sovereignty restored, eminent domain applied, incorporated into the JNF, its inhabitants – compensated if they cooperate – deported further into Palestinian controlled territory or given the option to emigrate with assistance and settled with Jews, with military posts on the ever expanding perimeter.
NATO has no right to advance onto the borders of Russia.
Taiwan belongs to China as does Hong Kong. America and Europe must stay out of the China Sea. India must establish total sovereignty on Kashmir.
If fighting for those positions will bring at least three billion to defend Israel. Plus it is right. Britain release Assange. Putin as a central ally along with Serbs and other enemies of Jihad.
Explain this in political terms to American Evangelicals. Advise that reactionary Europe is dangerous for Jews due to change there to Muslim rule.
Explain this in firm political position taking which will remain true to promise, honour of the word given, to run Israel as a special Committee of Salvation
The above must be lauded as necessary measure to protect from.. zoonotic virus disease and global warming ravages on the historical Jewish Homeland. Spell out the decarbonising of the area and that on both scores Israel will cooperate with all friends
This will clear the way for the policy of Leon Trotsky to be enacted
…a part of earth on which Jews will never again be molested. I agree with politics of Martin Sherman and Victor Rosenthal.
America will not like the above but we will see which Americans are real friends.
In the long run the best solution is to let Hamas implode and so expose political Islamic extremism to ridicule – as happened to the Soviet Union.
If the IDF did enter Gaza what woould it do then? Bulldoze the place?
Expel all the families named Masri [Egyptian] or Maghrebi [Westerner] Hijazi and Yamani or the variants to Egypt?
Whille things are as they are Israel can quietly turn off the power or block all transit of goods and people for the odd week or month after a rocket or other violence – and Hamas has to take the flak.
@ Ted Belman: You wrote: “For the last 13 years, the division of the Arabs into two groups has helped Israel to avoid making more concession to their cause.”
If successive governments hadn’t been hampered by their fears of international pressure, would it have mattered?
Since policy begins in academic discussion, shouldn’t a discussion begin of how Israel can a) thwart and/or b) survive the worst the international community might perpetrate?
Here’s one thought on the first. I read somewhere that Israel is really in the position of control of the gas lines heading into Europe. I also read of so many inventions that Israel simply sells the rights to to other countries instead of leasing them on a renewable short-term basis.
Why can’t Israel use its potential economic leverage as political leverage?
Ultimately, Israel needs to demand a permanent seat on the UN Security Council. This is the only way, short of leaving the UN – and there should also be a discussion fo the pros and cons of that – the the systemic diplomatic persecution of Israel can be ended, or, if there is some other way, what might it be?
There needs to be such speculation, much like a war college considering different strategies and outcomes. Otherwise “should” is just dreaming.
In Wikipedia, I read this description of the platform of the tiny Otzma Yehudit which I agree with but I’m not holding my breath, as things stand:
“Otzma Yehudit calls for a one-state solution, including the annexation of the West Bank and complete Israeli rule of the land between the Jordan River and the Mediterranean Sea.[42] The party is against the formation of a Palestinian state, and advocates cancellation of the Oslo accords, as well as for imposing Israeli sovereignty over the Temple Mount.
The party advocates for increased emphasis on the teaching of Jewish history in all elementary schools to “deepen Jewish identity in students”.[6] The party is against “freezing construction of Jewish settlements, releasing terrorists, or negotiating with the PA”.[43] The party advocates deportation of “Arab extremists”.[43] On 24 February 2019, party member Itamar Ben Gvir called for the expulsion of Arab citizens of Israel who are not loyal to Israel.[44] The party advocates what it calls “Jewish capitalism” as its economic system; and claims that its approach would save “billions of shekels from the reduction of the defense budget following the removal of the enemy,” which would be directed at infrastructure development, reducing bureaucracy and regulations, as well as allocating resources to strengthen “weak populations.” The party also supports aiding the elderly and disabled. The party is also opposed to abortion.[45] The party supports easing restrictions on the IDFs rules of engagement.[46″
When Israel was debating leaving Gaza, I made the point that she shouldn’t evacuate every inch because it would set a bad precedent. Also that as a minimum she should keep Gush Katif. We should also keep the southern 5 miles. We could move everyone into what’s left
Once the migration is accomplished we should reclaim our sovereignty over all of it.
Did you know that the population in Tel Aviv is twice as dense as it is in Gaza City.
How likely is it likely that any forseeable Israeli government – including a Likud government led by Bibi or anyone else – will choose to go to war long enough to make a difference without a champion on the UN Security Council who will definitely veto any binding sanctions? Looking at the history, post-Ben Gurion, hasn’t every Israeli government, regardless of party or faction in charge, ended the war when the US demanded it do so?
If Israel is ever forced to enter Gaza (which it currently does not want to do) it must destroy all the terror networks. It must then divide into pieces so no coherent resistance can reform.
Reclaim Kush Katif and the three Northern Kibbutz which are situated on land bought by Jews in the 1930s. Then first allow anyone who want to emigrate to emigrate. Find means of assisting the emigration.
Destroy any place that is a danger to Israel such as Rafah or a good part of it.